Tehran slams US deportation of Iranian illegal migrants

“We are monitoring the developments in Syria with deliberation and patience and will make our specific decision when the time is right,” Mohammadreza Raouf Sheibani, Iran’s special representative for West Asia, said in an interview published Saturday.

He confirmed the recent remarks of Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani about an exchange of “positive messages” between Tehran and Damascus following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December.

Iran's Shiite clerical government became deeply involved in Syria's civil war early in the conflict, sending regular and proxy forces to defend Bashar al-Assad's rule.

Al-Shibani, speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai earlier this week, stressed that while Syria has received “clear and positive messages” from both Iran and Russia, these messages need to be translated into “a clear policy that makes the Syrian people feel reassured.”

Iran and Russia, Assad’s main backers during the brutal conflict that began in 2011, played key roles in maintaining his grip on power until a rapid rebel offensive last December forced him into exile in Moscow. Since then, both countries have sought to maintain influence in Syria while navigating the new political landscape.

Europe has taken a clear stance in supporting Syria’s new leadership, with French President Emmanuel Macron pledging assistance in countering terrorism and preventing the return of Iranian-backed militias. “The priority is ensuring that Syria does not become a logistical platform for militias linked to Iran, which pursue a regional destabilization agenda,” Macron said at a recent conference in Paris attended by key regional and Western powers.

Iran, which invested heavily in Assad’s survival—reportedly spending at least $30-$50 billion—now faces the challenge of recalibrating its strategy. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has vowed on multiple occasions to reclaim Iran’s influence in Syria, adding further tension to an already complex situation.

Findings by Iran International show that while Iran’s oil sales to China dropped sharply last month, the decline in export revenues began months earlier, coinciding with US sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian crude.

The Biden administration imposed sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian oil after Iran’s missile attack on Israel in early October last year. While this initially led to a relative decline in Iranian oil offloading at Chinese ports, the real blow came in early January when China, fearing potential US sanctions under Donald Trump's administration, prohibited sanctioned oil tankers from entering Shandong port.

Iran’s only oil customers are small, independent Chinese refineries, known as "teapots," most of which are based in Shandong, where 90% of Iranian oil cargoes is discharged.

Data from Kpler shows that Iran’s oil deliveries to China fell below 850,000 barrels per day in January, compared to over 1.8 million barrels per day in October last year.

Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analysis at Kpler told Iran International that Iran’s floating oil reserves have also tripled to 35 million barrels during this period. This explains the discrepancy between Iran’s claims of steady shipments and falling deliveries to China.

Most tankers are anchored in the waters off Singapore and Malaysia, while the Islamic Republic is seeking non-sanctioned vessels to transport the shipments to Shandong port.

Oil export revenues collapse, far exceeding decline in sales

Although Iran’s oil deliveries volume to China saw a relative drop in late 2024 and experienced a steep plunge in January, Iranian customs data indicates that the sharp decline in the country’s oil revenues began as early as October last year.

From March to September 2024, customs and government officials regularly reported monthly oil revenue figures. However, they had remained silent in since October until Iran’s Abdolnasser Hemmati, the minister of economic affairs recently referenced oil export revenues briefly in a tweet about the country’s foreign trade.

The latest data published by Iran’s Customs Administration indicated that the country had exported $23 billion worth of oil in the first six months of the current Iranian fiscal year (March 21 to September 21). No further official figures were released until Hemmati, citing customs data, announced that Iran’s oil export revenue had reached $30 billion over the past ten months.

In simple terms, Iran’s monthly oil export revenue has plunged from $3.83 billion in the first half of the fiscal year (March-September), to just $1.75 billion over the past four months.

It remains unclear why Iran’s oil revenues have plummeted far more than the drop in crude sales volume to China. However, it appears that latest sanctions by the Biden administration on dozens of tankers in October 2024 have significantly increased the cost of transporting Iranian oil to China, leading to a severe revenue decline.

Moreover, Iran’s oil exports to Syria have also halted in recent months following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government. However, with a daily export volume of only around 60,000 barrels, this alone cannot explain the halving of Iran’s oil revenues over the past four months.

Since October last year, the Iranian rial has also suffered a sharp devaluation, with the US dollar surging from around 600,000 rials to 900,000 rials in the free market—highlighting a major challenge for the Iranian government in meeting the country’s foreign currency needs.

Russia’s Challenge for Iran

In the final days of the Biden administration, Washington sanctioned over 180 oil tankers carrying Russian crude oil. According to Reuters, this move has caused the cost of chartering non-sanctioned tankers for transporting Russian oil to China to increase 3.5-fold. As a result, some previously non-sanctioned vessels that were involved in smuggling Iranian oil have shifted toward Russia, making it even more difficult for Iran to find non-sanctioned tankers to transport its oil to Chinese ports.

In this regard, TankerTrackers reported on February 13 that a very large crude carrier (VLCC), previously engaged in smuggling Iranian oil, is now en route to China with 1.9 million barrels of Russian crude.

Similarly, Kpler has confirmed that several large tankers that previously operated for Iran are now serving Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia’s floating oil storage has surpassed 88 million barrels, and it appears that the country’s logistical challenges won’t be resolved anytime soon.

“Tehran needs to feel under threat, and they need to feel pain,” said Pregent.

"What kind of pressure can the Trump administration put on Iran to get those hostages released? They just simply have to say, you are going to be held accountable for every hostage that's killed or delay in the release of every hostage."

The United States, Pregent said, should exert economic pressure on Iran, discourage Iraqi cooperation with Tehran and more directly confront armed affiliates in the region such as the Houthis in Yemen, Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas itself.

"If the regime told Hamas to release, they would release," Pregent said, referring to Iranian authorities and Israeli hostages Hamas seized in an Oct. 7, 2023 attack.

Trump on Monday warned of dire consequence if all the remaining hostages are not released on Saturday.

“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock – I think it’s an appropriate time – I would say, cancel it (ceasefire) and all bets are off and let hell break out,” the president told reporters in the White House.

Trump’s comments represent one of the most direct threats aimed at the Iran-backed group by any Western leader. He also says he seeks to seize and control Gaza, the coastal enclave that has been run by Hamas.

The Islamic Republic provides material, financial and ideological support to its Palestinian ally. According to a 2020 US state department report, Iran provides about $100 million annually to Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas.

Qatar's role

Pregent, who served under former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, General David Petraeus in Iraq, describes Trump as a tough and effective leader.

The Republican President understands the Middle East, Pregent said, but added that some members of the administration are too close to Qatar.

“That funding either silences a critic or results in praise for what Qatar is doing. We hear these things like Qatar is doing God's work,” said Pregent. “When it comes to Witkoff, we know that they bought a property in New York for $623 million. That's in The New York Times. I'm not saying that he's bought and paid for.”

Steve Witkoff, once a prominent real estate investor, is the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, who played a pivotal role in brokering a major ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas.

A New York Times report alleges that Witkoff was involved with two sovereign wealth funds when he bought and sold a Manhattan hotel in 2018 prior to working in government. The Qatar investment authority purchased the hotel for $623 million helping to secure a buyout for Witkoff and his partners.

The most senior leader of Hamas outside of Gaza was living in Qatar up until recently, but the political office of Hamas in Doha is now permanently closed, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson told various Western-media outlets.

Qatar, a tiny island in the Persian Gulf, has become the world’s lead hostage-negotiator. The small energy-rich state, with the help of Egypt, has been working with the US and Israel on a Israel-Gaza ceasefire for much of the conflict.

In 2023, just before October 7, Doha brokered a deal between Washington and Tehran that saw the release of US hostages inside Iran in exchange for the release of 6 billion to Tehran in frozen assets.

“You cannot succeed if you continue to play into the hands of the arsonist playing firefighter, you know, in the role of Qatar. If you really want to get a release, Tehran needs to be involved,” said Pregent.

Pregent said while Iran influences Hamas, Qatar influences the US.

“What I'm saying is it’s pretty hard to criticize Qatar when they buy you out of a financial situation that you are in. That's what I'm talking about with this influence,” added Pregent.

If Doha continues to lead negotiations, and Tehran doesn't face consequences for its support of Hamas, Pregent insisted, there can be no progress to end the conflict.

"If that doesn't happen, then nothing."

Universities have been a frequent flashpoint anti-government unrest in Iran and students say the murder shows authorities are not providing sufficient safety.

"Tehran University dormitory is currently under siege ... More than 100 plainclothes officers are stationed at the entrance to Tehran University's dormitory," the Amirkabir university newsletter reported on its social media channels on Friday.

The student newsletter reported that a student it named as Amir Hossein Gohari was beaten and detained by plainclothes forces, while three other students were arrested, but their names remain unknown.

Earlier in the day, Tehran University students staged a protest against the university's policies and the lack of student safety in response to the death of their peer.

Amir Mohammad Khaleghi, an undergraduate student at the university's business management department, was attacked by robbers earlier this week and died from his injuries.

Protesters at the demonstration chanted, "Nothing can wipe away the blood that has been spilled" along with "Death to Khamenei", a reference to Iran's Supreme Leader, along with other anti-government slogans, reported the student newsletter.

According to Iranian media, Khaleghi was attacked with a sharp weapon on Wednesday evening by thieves in a neighborhood near Tehran University's dormitories.

In a sign of how serious authorities view the student unrest, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani urged calm on Friday and respect for authorities.

"We invite everyone to keep the path of dialogue open while maintaining calm," she said in a post on X following the student protest earlier in the day.

The Amirkabir newsletter reported that some students plan to continue their protest in a sit in in the courtyard of the university until the morning despite the presence of security forces.

Tehran University said in a statement on Thursday that the murder occurred outside its university grounds, further angering students.

"Since calls were made to the university about this incident, we inform you that this student's death occurred outside the university grounds, near Gisha Bridge," the statement said. "The university officials, upon receiving initial reports last night, are diligently following up on the matter."

The National Student Guild Council criticized the university's response, saying, "University officials shamelessly claim that the murder occurred outside the university grounds, and not only are they unaccountable for the lost life, but they also impose the responsibility of following up on the students."

The investigation into Khaleghi’s death is ongoing.

Iran’s Judiciary media center announced that, following the report of a robbery involving a Tehran University student, which led to his death due to the injuries sustained, the Tehran Prosecutor's Office immediately ordered the opening of a case in the special prosecutor's branch.

"He is completely one-eyed, and this is a sign of the end times," Seyyed Hassan Ameli told congregants in a sermon for Islamic Friday prayers according to the Tehran-based Didban News website.

Ameli is Ali Khamenei's representative to deliver the weekly sermon in the large northwestern city of Ardabil, and Friday prayer-leaders' remarks reflect official thinking in the theocracy.

In Islamic eschatology, a figure called Dajjal is a false messiah who will emerge in the end times, spreading corruption and misleading people with false promises of power and prosperity before being ultimately defeated by a righteous messiah.

His description in Islamic scripture as "one-eyed" has been interpreted to refer to his deception and ability to manipulate others for personal gain.

"The new US president has a completely one-sided view," Ameli said.

"He sees the world purely through a materialistic lens and openly declares that America is a business corporation."

"He covets wealth wherever it exists—whether it's Middle Eastern oil, Syrian oil, or Ukraine’s minerals," he continued.

Ameli further criticized Trump’s approach to foreign relations, saying that the US president has used intimidation tactics to pressure countries into submission, expecting Iran to comply in the same way.

Reimposing the so-called "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions on Iran from his first term this month, the hawkish Republican president has said he much prefers a deal on Iran's disputed nuclear program over any military attack on the country.

Trump then shocked Mideast leaders by saying he planned to seize and re-develop the Gaza Strip into the "riviera of the Middle East" after a 15-month incursion by US-allied Israel flattened much of the coastal enclave.

Khamenei appeared to promptly blast that idea, rejecting Trump's territorial ambitions as a fantasy.