With Iran maintaining its stance against talks with the United States, it is pressing ahead with plans to triple its military budget for the new Iranian year in March, signaling preparations for potential military scenarios.
While officials deny that war is imminent, they acknowledge that diplomacy is no longer on the table.
Ahmad Bakhshayesh, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, addressed the military budget increase which was announced in October when President Masoud Pezeshkian submitted the budget plan to the parliament for approval.
“It cannot be interpreted exactly in that way, but a significant increase in the military budget means that we are not negotiating and negotiations are not on our agenda,” Bakhshayesh told Ruydad 24 website.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, the government spokesperson, had announced a 200% increase in the military budget during a press conference in October saying that the purpose of the is move was to "strengthen the country's defense capabilities."
The budget for Iran’s armed forces was 7,220 trillion rials in last year’s budget bill. Given the exchange rate defined in that budget (330,000 rials per dollar), Iran’s military budget the last year could be estimated at $15.7 billion.
Based on this, the allocated budget for Iran’s armed forces in the coming year will likely be around 21,660 trillion rials. Given the exchange rate defined in the new year budget (570,000 rials per dollar) Iran’s military budget could be estimated at $46 billion.
The announcement follows increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who have repeatedly signaled readiness for military confrontation.
On Tuesday, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh said another attack on Israel, dubbed True Promise III, is in the cards.
“Iran’s third attack on Israel, True Promise 3, will definitely take place, but officials have planned for it and will use it strategically—we will not waste it,” Hajizadeh said.
He also warned that an assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities would trigger widespread conflict in the region.
Hajizadeh’s comments came after US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with an Israeli military strike if it refused to halt its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, officials the Pezeshkian administration, who previously advocated diplomacy, have shifted their stance, aligning with Khamenei’s hardline position against negotiations with the US—a stance he emphasized in a speech earlier this month.
“Today, in terms of hard defense and military threats from enemies, we have no concerns or problems,” Khamenei also said in one of his recent speeches.
The new year’s budget bill projects 1.75 million barrels of oil exports per day, with 420,000 barrels allocated to the military—equivalent to 24% of total exports. In monetary terms, the armed forces will receive €11 billion worth of oil, up from €4 billion in the previous year.
This nearly threefold increase means the military’s oil revenue will exceed the government’s by 520 trillion rials ($565 million).
Hajizadeh acknowledged that the military buildup is a response to growing tensions. “War conditions don’t always mean attacking—we must also prepare for being attacked,” he said, adding that heightened tensions have secured increased government funding.
Iran’s two previous attacks on Israel cost an estimated 1,380 trillion rials ($1.5 billion)—or 16 million rials ($17) per citizen. Meanwhile, over 60 million Iranians—70% of the population—rely on government food coupons for essential goods, yet the budget for these subsidies has been cut by 33%, dropping from €16 billion to €12 billion for the next year.
At the same time, the government lacks the funds to finance the food coupons and has resorted to withdrawing from the National Development Fund with the Supreme Leader’s approval.
With military spending surging, funds for vital imports—including medicines, infant formula, and livestock feed—have been slashed, driving up prices. Even before the next fiscal year begins, over 400 Social Security-covered medicines have already seen price hikes.
At least one third of Iranians are already living below the poverty line while workers strikes continue demanding unpaid wages.
The conservative Tehran-based website Tabnak quoted Hossein Allah-Karam, leader of the vigilante group Ansar Hezballah, as saying that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot follow through on their threats against Iran.
Tabnak described Allah-Karam as a political science professor at the University of Tehran and quoted him as asserting that Trump has failed to back his threats against Hamas. He concluded, “His other threat about bombing Iran if we do not sign a paper for him also cannot materialize.”
The hardline figure further claimed, “Trump’s performance has forced the United States and Israel to kneel before Gaza.”
He added, "We have achieved this with the capabilities we already have, so why should we challenge ourselves by opting to upgrade our capabilities?" This was perhaps a veiled reference to producing nuclear weapons and more potent ballistic missiles.
Allah-Karam’s remarks align with recent statements from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and some IRGC commanders suggesting Iran is prepared for conflict with Israel.
In a recent speech, Khamenei called for upgrading Iran's ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, IRGC deputy commander Ali Fadavi said on Monday that a third direct attack on Israel will happen in due course. "Operation True Promise 3 will occur at the right time," Fadavi said.
Fadavi made these remarks in response to statements by Israeli and US officials regarding Iran’s perceived weakness, as well as Trump’s threat that Israel would bomb Iran if Tehran refused to negotiate with the United States over its controversial nuclear program.
He stated, “Not a single day has passed without the world's evildoers—the Great Satan, America, and its allies—waging war against us.”
Reformist political commentator Ahmad Zeidabadi warned on Telegram that "Netanyahu has already made preparations for attacking Iran in the coming months." He appeared to be referring to Trump's backing of the plan, possibly alluding to the shipment of US-made bunker buster bombs to Israel and stationing of US B-52 bombers somewhere in the region.
Zeidabadi added that "all official statements and both direct and indirect remarks from Israeli and US officials suggest that such an attack is imminent." He cautioned that "while it might be a limited strike, its consequences could be extremely destructive and uncontrollable."
On Monday, Canadian-based military analyst Houshang Hassanyari and German-based political analyst Ali Sadrzadeh, both Iranian-born, stated on Iran International TV that the Islamic Republic appears to be preparing for war against Israel. Both analysts agreed that Iranian officials and military commanders' claims about the country's military capabilities are based on illusion rather than reality.
Hassanyari warned that "the Islamic Republic is under a dangerous illusion. Khamenei believes his forces can defend Iran and deliver heavy blows to Israeli and US forces. Even if he is not actively planning a war against Israel, his rhetoric is pushing Iran toward one."
He added that Iran lacks strong military capabilities and is destined for a major defeat in any war. If a conflict with Israel breaks out, the United States will undoubtedly intervene to support Israel.
Sadrzadeh, however, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of war. "I do not believe Iran is preparing for a war with Israel, as its commanders and top officials must have at least a basic understanding of their forces' limitations. US officials say Iran has no effective air defense, and as far as I know, Tehran no longer has allies or strategic depth in the Middle East."
He also noted that the situation has changed since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Given the protests in Iran in recent years, it is inconceivable that Iranians would rally behind Khamenei’s idea of war against Israel.
Anti-obesity drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro are not approved by Iran’s health regulators but that does not seem to bother those who seek and afford this newfound status symbol.
“Have a quick scroll through Instagram and you’ll see scores of Ozempic posts,” says Fatemeh, a psychotherapist in Tehran over a call on an encrypted messaging app. “You may see the medical pen flaunted alongside a Givenchy or a Louis Vuitton.”
For many, Ozempic is as much about status as it is about fitness, she says, adding that it’s not all too rare to happen upon someone live streaming their injection of Mounjaro to showcase their apparent weight-loss journeys.
The longing for a slimmer physique is nothing new. But the anti-obesity injections, often called a Fitness Wand, are also highly coveted in Iran not in spite of but because of their high cost.
On Instagram and Telegram, platforms with the most users in Iran, instructional videos are mushrooming on Ozempic and other weight-loss medications, with more physicians and clinics offering tips on how to use those, how to get the best results, and of course, how to tell apart the original and the fake ones.
“For many of our clients, these weight-loss pens are seen as tools to regain self-confidence,” says Maryam Majd, a 42-year-old fitness trainer at a high-end gym in Tehran’s affluent Zaferaniyeh district.
“Our gym staff is trained to assist with using these products, and we’ve even set up a dedicated room next to the solarium for this purpose,” she adds.
The urge to follow western trends may be explained, partly at least, by Iran’s official isolation from the world. But there’s little doubt that Iranians tend to be trigger happy when it comes to invasive methods of uplifting their appearance.
Take the wave of rhinoplasty (or nose jobs) that came to Iran’s shores a couple of decades ago and has left very few nostrils intact. Then it was liposuction, then Botox.
Every time it starts with the well-off and spreads to others, first as a luxury then a necessity, an obsession almost, which compels people with not enough disposable income to cut their expenses elsewhere, give up their basic needs even, to afford it.
Ozempic and other pens appear to be following a similar trajectory.
All this comes as many Iranians have to visit multiple pharmacies and queue up for hours to get life-saving medication for their loved ones.
Iran’s ongoing economic troubles—driven by sanctions, corruption and government mismanagement—has led to chronic shortages of essential drugs. Three in ten Iranians are now unable to afford their medication due to the soaring prices.
It does not help that some black market dealers, drawn by the substantial profit margins, have shifted their focus from rare disease medications to high-demand weight-loss drugs.
As the global trend of weight-loss medications continues to gain traction, Ozempic and similar drugs have become yet another example of Iran’s widening gap—between those constantly chasing the latest status symbol and those struggling to meet their basic needs.