Sweden summons Iran's ambassador to seek release of dual national

“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.

The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.

"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."

"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.

After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.

It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.

How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK

The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.

That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.

Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.

“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.

The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.

The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.

Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.

Shifting tectonic plates

Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.

Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.

Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.

“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.

One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.

“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.

“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”

Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine

Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.

Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.

“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.

Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.

Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.

"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.

"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.

The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.

“We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office. “We are at final moments with Iran. Something’s going to happen very soon."

There’ll be some interesting days ahead, that’s all I can tell you. You know, we’re down to final strokes with Iran,” he added.

He also blamed former US President Joe Biden’s policies for strengthening Tehran financially, saying that Iran was “stone cold broke” during his presidency but had since amassed “$300 billion” in oil revenues.

“Oil builds up fast. It’s a nice, nice living if you have a nice little well. And they do, they have a lot of nice little wells, right?” he said.

Trump again argued that the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel "would have never happened” under his leadership. He also said that Iran had been prepared to reach a deal with the US before the 2020 election but changed course after he lost.

“I think that I would have had a deal within one month after the rigged election of 2020,” he said. “They were all set to make a deal. And then when I lost, they saw this person who’s a stupid person, very stupid person. And they said, let’s not make a deal. And they were right. He took the sanctions off. They became rich under Biden.”

While he said he preferred a diplomatic resolution, he implied that other options remained on the table.

“Hopefully we can have a peace deal. But the other will solve the problem.”

Earlier, Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei offering talks toward a deal on its nuclear program but warned that the alternative was military intervention.

Tehran's UN mission in New York said no letter from Trump has been received.

Hugo Shorter's summons came after Britain said it would put Iran's intelligence and security establishment on the highest tier of a foreign influence watchlist on Tuesday, toughening London's stance on perceived political interference by Tehran.

Under the designation, Iran and anybody acting on its behalf would be deemed a potential security threat and compelled to register their activities in the UK. Not doing so would potentially incur a five-year prison sentence.

According to Iran’s official news agency IRNA, Alireza Yousefi, assistant foreign minister and director general for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry, met with Shorter on Friday.

IRNA's report added that during the meeting Yousefi told Shorter that Britian's "biased stance and unfounded allegations" contradict international law and diplomatic norms, further deepening Iranian distrust of the UK’s policies toward Iran.

The report cited Shorter as saying he would relay the message to London.

Earlier on Thursday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also condemned the move, saying, "Any government that makes baseless accusations against the Iranian nation or takes hostile actions against them must be held accountable."

Under the new designation, Iran and any individuals acting on its behalf will be required to register their activities in the UK or face possible prison sentences of up to five years.

Referring to past British involvement in Iran’s internal affairs, Baghaei added, "You accuse Iran of what you yourselves are skilled at: interfering in the internal affairs of nations! But this is no longer the 19th century."

Known as the "Fourth Night of Architects," the 12th Iranian Interior Design Award was held on January 20 at the National Library of Iran, attracting over 500 attendees.

Shortly afterward, videos emerged on social media showing women, including judges and participants, without headscarves.

The head of Iran's Public Security Police stated that under orders from Tehran's prosecutor, "swift and decisive action" was taken against those involved in "acts contrary to morality and public decency."

Police official Majid Fayz Jafari told domestic media on Friday that "the police do not compromise on citizens' security and will take firm action against those who deliberately violate the law."

Tehran's prosecutor Ali Salehi also confirmed legal action, alleging that "some women attended without observing the hijab, and moral and legal standards were not upheld."

This case is part of a broader enforcement of the Islamic Republic's hijab regulations.

Last month, Iranian singer Hiva Seifizadeh was arrested during a live performance at Tehran's "Emarat Roo Be Roo," prompting the venue to announce its closure until further notice.

Authorities have also expanded monitoring efforts, with reports of increasing warning messages and legal cases related to hijab violations.

According to the Dideban Azar website, some women received warnings through text messages, which, in certain cases, were sent to their family members.

In December, Tehran paused implementation of a controversial hijab law, which would impose harsher penalties on women and girls violating veiling requirements, following significant domestic and international backlash.

Yet, Iranian authorities continue to enforce existing hijab regulations, taking action against women who appear unveiled in public.

Earlier this week, 209 lawmakers signed a petition urging Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to enforce the controversial "Chastity and Hijab Law."

Following that, UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk addressed the state's hijab policies.

"I call again on the authorities to repeal the (hijab) law fully and permanently, along with all other laws and practices that discriminate against women and girls," Turk said on Monday.

While the deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security committee appears to be adamant that Russia will consider Iran's interests in its negotiations with America, the committee's former chairman has once again expressed concern that "Russia might sacrifice Iran for its own interests."

The remarks of Abbas Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Majles national security committee, suggested that Iran's interests factor into Russia’s calculations. "In its negotiations with the United States, Russia also considers Iran's interests," he said.

He argued that Russia would take Iran’s interests into account, citing the recently signed strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries and asserting that Moscow will "consider its ally's interests in its foreign relations." However, Russia has repeatedly stated in the past that Iran is not a strategic ally.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other officials have repeatedly referred to Iran as a partner, distinguishing their relationship from Russia’s formal alliances, such as with China or members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In August 2022, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the strength of Russia-Iran relations but stopped short of calling Iran a strategic ally.

The hardline Raja News, the pro-reform Fararu website, and the pro-Pezeshkian Etemad newspaper have also rejected the notion of Iran being a strategic ally of Russia. However, Moscow is still likely to back Tehran when it serves its interests, using Iran as regional and international leverage in its dealings with the West.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Etemad, Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh, former chief of the Iranian Parliament's national security and foreign relations committee, stated, "The revival of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was sacrificed for Russia's war in Ukraine. I fear Iran may now be sacrificed for Russia’s peace with Ukraine."

He was referring to the West’s reluctance to negotiate with Iran following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to the suspension of nuclear talks in March 2022. Since then, Tehran has supported Russia’s war effort, supplying weapons used against Ukraine.

Asked about the likelihood of Iran's interests being compromised in talks between Moscow and Washington, Falahatpisheh said, "Political developments since 2021 have shown that international variables directly affect Iran's nuclear diplomacy and its position in global affairs."

He recalled that three years ago, when Iran and the West were close to reaching a nuclear deal, Russia formally urged the United States to exempt Iran-Russia trade from US sanctions on both countries. However, Washington rejected the request, viewing it as an attempt by Moscow to exploit the nuclear negotiations for its own benefit.

The politician accused Russia of deceiving Iran and obstructing the revival of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal at the time. Expressing concern over Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Iran, he warned, "Once again, the Russians might use Iran as leverage in their dealings with Washington."

Meanwhile, Iranian foreign policy analyst Qasem Mohebali told the conservative Nameh News website that "Russia's mediation between Iran and the United States is unlikely to benefit Iran."

"It appears that the Americans have promised certain concessions to Russia regarding the Ukraine war, and in return, Russia has agreed to offer some concessions to Washington concerning Iran," Mohebali said.

However, he argued that this arrangement is not in Iran’s best interest, as "Russia is likely to use Iran as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States over Ukraine." He also questioned the effectiveness of mediation by a country that is itself engaged in negotiations to resolve its own challenges.

"Iran is in an ambiguous international position," Mohebali concluded. "However, the disputes between Europe and the Arab states on one side and the United States on the other, along with the divide between Russia and America, provide Iran with an opportunity to extract some concessions. Still, Moscow's mediation is unlikely to serve Tehran’s interests."