Qatar urges deal on Iran nuclear standoff, warns against military action

“We have received highly concerning reports about Ahmadreza Djalali’s deteriorating health," the ministry said in a statement, adding that Iran’s ambassador had been urgently summoned.

During the meeting Sweden urged Iran to free Djalali on humanitarian grounds, according to the statement. “The summons demanded that Ahmadreza Djalali be immediately released on humanitarian grounds so that he can be reunited with his family.”

Sweden also called for urgent medical treatment for Djalali as his health condition deteriorates. “At the same time, he must immediately receive the medical care he so clearly needs.”

Djalali, a specialist in disaster medicine, was arrested in 2016 during a visit to Iran and later sentenced to death on charges of espionage—a conviction widely criticized by international human rights organizations as unfounded. Amnesty International said his sentence was issued relying on forced confessions obtained under torture.

His health has significantly declined during his imprisonment, with reports indicating severe weight loss and inadequate medical attention.

He has has lost a considerable amount of weight and is in urgent need of medical care, according to a report by by Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, citing Djalali's lawyer and family.

Additionally, Djalali has been experiencing dangerously low blood pressure, exacerbating concerns about his well-being, according to the report.

During Friday's meeting, Sweden said it asked Iran not to carry out Djalali's death sentence. “At the meeting, Sweden's clear protests against the death penalty and demands that it not be carried out were reiterated.”

In January, the European Parliament adopted a resolution demanding the immediate and unconditional release of all EU-Iranian dual nationals currently detained in Iranian prisons, including Djalali.

“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.

The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.

"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."

"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.

After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.

It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.

How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK

The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.

That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.

Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.

“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.

The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.

The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.

Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.

Shifting tectonic plates

Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.

Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.

Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.

“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.

One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.

“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.

“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”

Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine

Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.

Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.

“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.

Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.

Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.

"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.

"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.

The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.

“We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office. “We are at final moments with Iran. Something’s going to happen very soon."

There’ll be some interesting days ahead, that’s all I can tell you. You know, we’re down to final strokes with Iran,” he added.

He also blamed former US President Joe Biden’s policies for strengthening Tehran financially, saying that Iran was “stone cold broke” during his presidency but had since amassed “$300 billion” in oil revenues.

“Oil builds up fast. It’s a nice, nice living if you have a nice little well. And they do, they have a lot of nice little wells, right?” he said.

Trump again argued that the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel "would have never happened” under his leadership. He also said that Iran had been prepared to reach a deal with the US before the 2020 election but changed course after he lost.

“I think that I would have had a deal within one month after the rigged election of 2020,” he said. “They were all set to make a deal. And then when I lost, they saw this person who’s a stupid person, very stupid person. And they said, let’s not make a deal. And they were right. He took the sanctions off. They became rich under Biden.”

While he said he preferred a diplomatic resolution, he implied that other options remained on the table.

“Hopefully we can have a peace deal. But the other will solve the problem.”

Earlier, Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei offering talks toward a deal on its nuclear program but warned that the alternative was military intervention.

Tehran's UN mission in New York said no letter from Trump has been received.

The message from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a paramilitary body at the heart of the Iranian establishment, appears to be a firm rejection of Trump's message to Iran to demonstrably rule out nuclear weapons or face military strikes.

"The letter, for various reasons, is primarily a psychological operation rather than a sincere political move," the unsigned letter in Tasnim said.

"If Trump is sincere in his stated concerns, such an agreement that guarantees U.S. satisfaction has been on the table since 2015," it added, referring to an international nuclear deal from which President Trump withdrew the United States in 2018.

Trump said on Thursday that Tehran would need to ditch a nuclear program much of the West views as a precursor to building nuclear weapons or face military force.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and says its program has peaceful aims.

"There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal because I'm not looking to hurt Iran," Trump said.

The IRGC is a key economic, domestic enforcement and foreign operations body which along with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei guide Iran's policy.

More moderate members of Iran's civilian government championed the 2015 nuclear deal with United Nations Security Council members plus Germany during the Democratic administration of Barack Obama.

Slamming his predecessor as too lax, Trump pulled out of the agreement after fellow Republicans said it did not properly curb the Iranian nuclear and missile threat nor its militant activities in region.

In his second term, the hawkish president has repeatedly vowed to deny Iran a nuclear bomb but had yet to convey his demands to Khamenei personally or so specifically moot military attacks as the alternative to an understanding between the arch-foes.

Hugo Shorter's summons came after Britain said it would put Iran's intelligence and security establishment on the highest tier of a foreign influence watchlist on Tuesday, toughening London's stance on perceived political interference by Tehran.

Under the designation, Iran and anybody acting on its behalf would be deemed a potential security threat and compelled to register their activities in the UK. Not doing so would potentially incur a five-year prison sentence.

According to Iran’s official news agency IRNA, Alireza Yousefi, assistant foreign minister and director general for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry, met with Shorter on Friday.

IRNA's report added that during the meeting Yousefi told Shorter that Britian's "biased stance and unfounded allegations" contradict international law and diplomatic norms, further deepening Iranian distrust of the UK’s policies toward Iran.

The report cited Shorter as saying he would relay the message to London.

Earlier on Thursday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also condemned the move, saying, "Any government that makes baseless accusations against the Iranian nation or takes hostile actions against them must be held accountable."

Under the new designation, Iran and any individuals acting on its behalf will be required to register their activities in the UK or face possible prison sentences of up to five years.

Referring to past British involvement in Iran’s internal affairs, Baghaei added, "You accuse Iran of what you yourselves are skilled at: interfering in the internal affairs of nations! But this is no longer the 19th century."