Trump says the US is 'at final moments with Iran'

The message from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a paramilitary body at the heart of the Iranian establishment, appears to be a firm rejection of Trump's message to Iran to demonstrably rule out nuclear weapons or face military strikes.

"The letter, for various reasons, is primarily a psychological operation rather than a sincere political move," the unsigned letter in Tasnim said.

"If Trump is sincere in his stated concerns, such an agreement that guarantees U.S. satisfaction has been on the table since 2015," it added, referring to an international nuclear deal from which President Trump withdrew the United States in 2018.

Trump said on Thursday that Tehran would need to ditch a nuclear program much of the West views as a precursor to building nuclear weapons or face military force.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and says its program has peaceful aims.

"There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal because I'm not looking to hurt Iran," Trump said.

The IRGC is a key economic, domestic enforcement and foreign operations body which along with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei guide Iran's policy.

More moderate members of Iran's civilian government championed the 2015 nuclear deal with United Nations Security Council members plus Germany during the Democratic administration of Barack Obama.

Slamming his predecessor as too lax, Trump pulled out of the agreement after fellow Republicans said it did not properly curb the Iranian nuclear and missile threat nor its militant activities in region.

In his second term, the hawkish president has repeatedly vowed to deny Iran a nuclear bomb but had yet to convey his demands to Khamenei personally or so specifically moot military attacks as the alternative to an understanding between the arch-foes.

Hugo Shorter's summons came after Britain said it would put Iran's intelligence and security establishment on the highest tier of a foreign influence watchlist on Tuesday, toughening London's stance on perceived political interference by Tehran.

Under the designation, Iran and anybody acting on its behalf would be deemed a potential security threat and compelled to register their activities in the UK. Not doing so would potentially incur a five-year prison sentence.

According to Iran’s official news agency IRNA, Alireza Yousefi, assistant foreign minister and director general for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry, met with Shorter on Friday.

IRNA's report added that during the meeting Yousefi told Shorter that Britian's "biased stance and unfounded allegations" contradict international law and diplomatic norms, further deepening Iranian distrust of the UK’s policies toward Iran.

The report cited Shorter as saying he would relay the message to London.

Earlier on Thursday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also condemned the move, saying, "Any government that makes baseless accusations against the Iranian nation or takes hostile actions against them must be held accountable."

Under the new designation, Iran and any individuals acting on its behalf will be required to register their activities in the UK or face possible prison sentences of up to five years.

Referring to past British involvement in Iran’s internal affairs, Baghaei added, "You accuse Iran of what you yourselves are skilled at: interfering in the internal affairs of nations! But this is no longer the 19th century."

Russia is an active geopolitical player with its own vested interests, Nematollah Izadi told ILNA News Agency on Friday.

"There is no doubt the Russians are interested in mediating between Iran and the US, but whether they can do so effectively remains in doubt," Izadi said. "They play a role in regional issues concerning Iran, the US, and Europe and have their own interests. Therefore, they cannot be impartial mediators."

He also urged Iran to adopt a balanced foreign policy, warning against over-reliance on a single ally.

"If Iran fails to do so, all of its foreign policy ‘eggs’ will end up in Russia’s basket—and most likely China’s as well," he said. "This will undoubtedly have negative consequences, as it will limit Iran’s options."

His remarks come following an alarming report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier this week.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi revealed that Iran had significantly increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, raising further concerns over its nuclear intentions.

Grossi also acknowledged that Western sanctions have failed to curb Tehran’s nuclear expansion, with its program growing significantly in recent years.

“Sanctions aren’t working,” Grossi told Bloomberg. “Quite obviously, the country has learned to circumvent them. The program has grown enormously, especially since 2018.”

The IAEA has consistently argued that there is no credible civilian use for uranium enriched to 60%, as it is just a short technical step from weapons-grade (90%) uranium.

Russia’s expanding role in Iran talks

As Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West intensifies, Russia has positioned itself as a key diplomatic actor, proposing talks with Washington.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov met with Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali on Thursday to discuss international efforts to resolve issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Friday.

Moscow has agreed to assist the US in communicating with Iran on various issues, including its nuclear program and support for regional anti-US proxies, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, later confirmed by the Kremlin.

The report, later picked up by Russian state media, quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that "Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations" and that Moscow "is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this."

Last month, before the Russian offer of mediation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran, where both sides "aligned their positions" on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal that unraveled following the US withdrawal in 2018.

Additionally, in an exclusive interview with BBC Persian, Russia’s IAEA envoy Mikhail Ulyanov dismissed Western concerns about Iran’s uranium enrichment, calling US and European warnings a "political pressure tactic."

"Our Western colleagues seem to think the Middle East is too calm, and they want to add fuel to the fire," Ulyanov said.

Missile program and regional influence: a key sticking point

A major sticking point in nuclear negotiations is whether talks will include Iran’s missile program and regional influence, issues that the US insists must be addressed in any new deal, but Tehran and Moscow reject.

"Negotiations should not include Iran’s missile program or its regional influence," Ulyanov said. "Adding these topics would complicate the process and make it unmanageable."

This mirrors the original 2015 JCPOA, which focused solely on Iran’s nuclear program while excluding its missile program and regional activities, a framework Iran insists must remain unchanged.

Iran's shift away from the West

Izadi’s concerns over Russia’s mediation come amid Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ban on negotiations with the United States, issued in early February after President Donald Trump announced plans to intensify sanctions. Trump called for an agreement that would permanently prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Khamenei has long pushed for closer ties with Russia and China, rejecting reliance on the US and Europe, a stance that has hardened since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and renewed sanctions.

This shift has had domestic political consequences, most notably in the forced resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former Foreign Minister who negotiated the JCPOA.

While the deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security committee appears to be adamant that Russia will consider Iran's interests in its negotiations with America, the committee's former chairman has once again expressed concern that "Russia might sacrifice Iran for its own interests."

The remarks of Abbas Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Majles national security committee, suggested that Iran's interests factor into Russia’s calculations. "In its negotiations with the United States, Russia also considers Iran's interests," he said.

He argued that Russia would take Iran’s interests into account, citing the recently signed strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries and asserting that Moscow will "consider its ally's interests in its foreign relations." However, Russia has repeatedly stated in the past that Iran is not a strategic ally.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other officials have repeatedly referred to Iran as a partner, distinguishing their relationship from Russia’s formal alliances, such as with China or members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In August 2022, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the strength of Russia-Iran relations but stopped short of calling Iran a strategic ally.

The hardline Raja News, the pro-reform Fararu website, and the pro-Pezeshkian Etemad newspaper have also rejected the notion of Iran being a strategic ally of Russia. However, Moscow is still likely to back Tehran when it serves its interests, using Iran as regional and international leverage in its dealings with the West.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Etemad, Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh, former chief of the Iranian Parliament's national security and foreign relations committee, stated, "The revival of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was sacrificed for Russia's war in Ukraine. I fear Iran may now be sacrificed for Russia’s peace with Ukraine."

He was referring to the West’s reluctance to negotiate with Iran following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to the suspension of nuclear talks in March 2022. Since then, Tehran has supported Russia’s war effort, supplying weapons used against Ukraine.

Asked about the likelihood of Iran's interests being compromised in talks between Moscow and Washington, Falahatpisheh said, "Political developments since 2021 have shown that international variables directly affect Iran's nuclear diplomacy and its position in global affairs."

He recalled that three years ago, when Iran and the West were close to reaching a nuclear deal, Russia formally urged the United States to exempt Iran-Russia trade from US sanctions on both countries. However, Washington rejected the request, viewing it as an attempt by Moscow to exploit the nuclear negotiations for its own benefit.

The politician accused Russia of deceiving Iran and obstructing the revival of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal at the time. Expressing concern over Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Iran, he warned, "Once again, the Russians might use Iran as leverage in their dealings with Washington."

Meanwhile, Iranian foreign policy analyst Qasem Mohebali told the conservative Nameh News website that "Russia's mediation between Iran and the United States is unlikely to benefit Iran."

"It appears that the Americans have promised certain concessions to Russia regarding the Ukraine war, and in return, Russia has agreed to offer some concessions to Washington concerning Iran," Mohebali said.

However, he argued that this arrangement is not in Iran’s best interest, as "Russia is likely to use Iran as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States over Ukraine." He also questioned the effectiveness of mediation by a country that is itself engaged in negotiations to resolve its own challenges.

"Iran is in an ambiguous international position," Mohebali concluded. "However, the disputes between Europe and the Arab states on one side and the United States on the other, along with the divide between Russia and America, provide Iran with an opportunity to extract some concessions. Still, Moscow's mediation is unlikely to serve Tehran’s interests."

Asked whether Washington would renew a waiver allowing Iraq to pay Iran for electricity, Bruce told reporters, "We are reviewing all existing sanctions waivers that provide Iran any degree of economic or financial relief."

A decision on whether to renew the waiver on the funds, which by November totaled $10 billion, is due on March 8.

"We are urging the Iraqi government to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible and welcome the Iraqi Prime Minister's commitment to achieve energy independence."

A decision to renew the waiver in the waning days of the Joe Biden administration stoked the ire of Republicans who criticized the Donald Trump's predecessor for allegedly being too soft on Tehran.

Trump reimposed his "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions aimed at depriving Iran of revenue as he seeks to cajole Iran into guaranteeing it will not acquire a nuclear weapon. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.

The funds were mandated for use on humanitarian needs such as medicines, according to the Biden State Department instructions.

However, its Republican detractors maintain that the money is fungible, allowing Tehran to divert its dwindling cash reserves to its military or regional allies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi fighters in Yemen.

During the previous Trump administration the waiver was in force but access to the funds was stricter, his supporters have argued.