Guards urge public to brace for snapback as Iran eyes talks with Europe

“This cycle, this repeating pattern – whose first victims are always children – will only end with the fall of the Islamic Republic,” Ebadi wrote on social media on Sunday, calling the incident “a continuation of state crimes.”

The victims, including Raha Sheikhi, were killed on July 16 when armed forces opened fire on a family vehicle. Authorities have yet to provide public evidence or detailed explanation.

Accusing the government of weaponizing security to suppress its own people after military setbacks abroad, Ebadi likened the killings to the death ofnine-year-old Kian Pirfalak, who was killed during the 2022 anti-government protests when forces opened fire on his family’s car in Izeh, Khuzestan province.

“The regime fears transparency, avoids accountability, and answers with bullets,” she wrote, warning that Iran is being turned into a military zone under the guise of national security.

Public anger is rising in Iran after security forces opened fire on two cars near a military base in Khomein, killing four members of a family — including three-year-old Raha Sheikhi.

Local officials confirmed the deaths of Mohammad-Hossein Sheikhi, his wife Mahboubeh, their daughter Raha, and Farzaneh Heidari, a relative. Authorities say the vehicles were deemed "suspicious," and a judicial probe is underway.

The shooters' affiliation has not been officially disclosed, but social media accounts linked to the family allege that Basij forces were responsible.

"Some of our air defenses were damaged, this is not something we can hide, but our colleagues have used domestic resources and replaced them with pre-arranged systems that were stored in suitable locations in order to keep the airspace secure," Mousavi added.

During the June conflict, Israel's air force took control of Iranian airspace, delivering a significant blow to the country's air defenses, while Iran's armed forces responded with successive waves of missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory.

“We were able to cover the skies using existing and new systems, securing the airspace of our dear Iran,” he said. “The enemy, despite its desperate efforts, failed to achieve its goals.”

Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, also echoed that message. “Air defense proved on the front lines of protecting Iran’s skies that it will resist any level of threat,” he said. “Downing so many enemy aircraft shows the courage and will of our defenders.”

Iran says it has downed several Israeli fighter jets but has not provided any footage or additional details.

Israeli forces struck targets across Iran freely during the 12-day war, including in and around the capital.

Israeli military officials say that 120 air defense systems were destroyed or disabled since the first wave of attacks—around a third of Iran’s pre-war total. Long-range systems, including Russian-supplied S-300s and Iran’s Bavar-373 batteries, were among those targeted.

“Iran relied on a fragmented mix of Russian S-300s, Chinese batteries, and local Bavar-373 systems – none of which were adequately integrated… The air defense radar was Russian and Chinese made, which have known issues of target discrimination, without any integration among bases and military units,” wrote the Global Defense Corp.

Mossad operations and precision strikes

In late June, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz directed the military to prepare an enforcement plan against Iran, which includes maintaining air superiority, blocking missile development, and deterring Iran's regional activities.

The plan, according to Katz’s, aimed to ensure Israel can respond kinetically to future threats.

A security source speaking to N12 also said Mossad operatives inside Iran played a central role in shaping the battlespace, deploying loitering munitions and attack drones, and establishing a covert launch site in the heart of Iran to suppress air defenses.

The War Zone website, a resource for the defense industry, released more details of Iran’s defense being destroyed.

“Among the targets reportedly prosecuted by Israeli operatives within Iran was an air defense site near Tehran. Shortly before the operation began, Israeli drones launched from within Iran struck surface-to-air missile launchers there, clearing the way for the larger strike, which also involved Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets."

"This would also explain the apparent inactivity by Iranian air defense sites during the Israeli bombardment. At the same time, the IAF has also been flying suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) operations that the service says have destroyed “dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers,” wrote the website.

Airspace remains exposed

Iran’s geographic scale -- roughly 1.6 million square kilometers -- poses a constant challenge for integrated air defense. The Islamic Republic lacks a modern fighter fleet to complement its missile systems and has relied on Cold War-era aircraft. Several of these have been destroyed on the ground in recent strikes, according to Israeli military imagery.

After limited Israeli strikes targeted Iranian missile factories last October, Iran later showcased Russian-made air defenses and its Bavar-373 system to project defensive strength, but Israeli aircraft, including F-35 stealth fighters, encountered little documented resistance during the 12-day conflict.

“I support making sure the Iranian regime never becomes a nuclear power,” Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said.

“It’s unfortunate they continue to pursue a nuclear weapons program. I don’t think they’ve ever stopped.”

Speaking separately on Capitol Hill, Senator Jim Risch of Idaho said, “Obviously, the program has been decimated. People say it’s just a setback, but substantial damage has been done — much more than has been publicly reported.”

He was referring to the impacts of US and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure in recent months.

Risch, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, added that any renewed effort by Tehran to produce a bomb would provoke further action.

“If the regime tries to build a nuclear weapon, the same thing is going to happen again,” he said. “Prime Minister Netanyahu has said so. President Trump has said so. And they mean it.”

Both senators expressed confidence that continued Western pressure, especially from Israel and the United States, would keep Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold.

Asked about recent reports that President Donald Trump’s campaign raised millions in donations following an alleged Iranian-linked plot to assassinate him, Risch underlined a distinction between Iran’s rulers and its people.

“Anything the regime does, we don’t ascribe to the Iranian people,” he said. “We know they’re good people who want to be free.”

Senator Johnson also welcomed reports that France and Germany are now backing a snapback of UN sanctions against Iran.

The snapback, created under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, lets any party to the 2015 nuclear deal restore UN sanctions if Iran is found non-compliant. If no resolution is passed within 30 days to extend sanctions relief, all previous measures return automatically.

Israeli air strikes and drone attacks during the 12-day war killed hundreds of Iranians including civilians, military personnel and nuclear scientists. Iran's retaliatory missile strikes also killed 27 Israelis.

On June 22, the United States joined the war by striking Iran’s nuclear sites in Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow using long-range bombers and submarine-launched missiles.

A US-brokered ceasefire was announced on June 24 between Iran and Israel after Tehran launched a retaliatory airstrike against a US airbase in Qatar.

Details released Saturday night -- despite tight security censorship in Israel over last month’s conflict with Iran -- revealed that in January, the military intelligence team issued an early warning following advances in Iran’s weapons program.

"The nuclear team in the Control Department issues a concrete warning about the launch of a coordinated project to produce the final stage required for launching a nuclear missile in Iran," it said.

Around the same time, the research division of Israel’s military intelligence also issued a warning, identifying a covert team of Iranian nuclear scientists allegedly working on previously undeveloped components needed to complete the final stage of a nuclear missile launch.

The head of military intelligence, Shlomi Binder, established a special team with several tech experts with an emphasis on nuclear weapons to plan the attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. They also focused on how to do simultaneous assassinations of the country's military and nuclear chiefs.

In May, Binder issued his own warning to the political echelon: "I would like to alert decision-makers to disturbing developments in the field of nuclear weapons in Iran. It appears that Iran is continuing to make determined progress that is shortening the technological and cognitive distance required to complete the development of a nuclear weapons device.”

On June 13, Israel launched a series of surprise attacks which led to the deaths of around 30 military commanders and nuclear scientists and a 12-day war which caused widespread destruction to both sides.

As the fragile ceasefire holds by a thread, the United States is now awaiting Iran’s return to the negotiating table for a new nuclear agreement. Both Washington and Tel Aviv have warned that failure to reach a deal could trigger further military strikes.

“The precondition for any referendum is the removal of power from the Islamic Republic,” Ebadi wrote, rejecting Mir Hossein Mousavi’s recent call for a national vote to reform the state’s political structure.

Earlier this month, Mousavi said in a statement that the current structure of the Islamic Republic “does not represent all Iranians.”

“The twelve-day war (with Israel) showed that the only guarantee for the nation’s survival is respect for every citizen’s right to self-determination,” the former prime minister added.

Mousavi, under house arrest since 2009, had urged the formation of a constitutional assembly through a public vote. His message was endorsed by over 800 civil and political figures who demanded the release of political prisoners and the drafting of a new constitution based on democracy and human rights.

But Ebadi, a prominent critic of the Islamic Republic, said such a process is legally unworkable within the current framework. She said Iran’s constitution explicitly bars changes to core principles such as clerical rule, Islamic law, and the system’s Islamic identity.

“Such a structure rules out the formation of a democratic and secular government,” she said.

She dismissed the latest wave of endorsements for Mousavi’s initiative as driven by sentiment rather than strategy.

“The recent statement signed by over 800 activists seems driven more by Mousavi’s political charisma than by any viable solution to Iran’s crisis."

Referendum seen as a trap

Ebadi also warned that a referendum sanctioned by the ruling establishment could become a tool to legitimize its hold on power.

“Any government is legally bound by its own constitution and cannot hold a referendum against its own existence. Therefore, such a request from the government is baseless,” she wrote.

Ebadi called instead for a UN-supervised referendum to manage a transition away from the Islamic Republic, citing a 2018 statement she co-authored with 14 other dissidents advocating for a full political break.

Along with cleric Mehdi Karroubi, Mousavi was a candidate in the disputed 2009 presidential election and challenged the results, leading large protests dubbed the Green Movement for months before he was arrested and placed under house arrest.

His wife Zahra Rahnavard and Karroubi were also accused of sedition against the Islamic Republic and remain under house arrest.