Israel sabotaged missiles and hacked air defenses, Iranian analyst says

The Miaan Group, a Texas-based digital rights organization, was cited by Bloomberg as saying several Iranians—both inside the country and abroad—received cyber threat notifications from Apple in early 2025.

Victims included two dissidents in Iran and a Europe-based Iranian tech expert. The group believes the number of those affected is likely far higher.

Hamid Kashfi, a Sweden-based cybersecurity researcher and founder of DarkCell, said he identified 12 additional victims—all located inside Iran and working in the tech sector or for government-linked institutions.

According to Bloomberg, Apple characterized the attacks as “exceptionally rare” and costing “millions of dollars,” warning targets that the spyware campaign likely focused on them “because of who you are or what you do.”

The notification compared the operation’s sophistication to Pegasus, the Israeli-made spyware used in state-level cyber-espionage which was revealed by activists and journalists in 2021. Tehran has also frequently deployed international cyber-attacks.

Kashfi said the attacks likely involved “zero-day, zero-click” exploits—techniques that require no user interaction and leverage undiscovered vulnerabilities.

“Zero-click chains are more sophisticated, more expensive, one stage higher than typical hacking campaigns,” he told Bloomberg. “But they weren’t shy about using it and burning it.”

Full forensic examinations were often not possible, either because of access limitations or victims choosing to submit their phones to Iranian authorities rather than independent experts, Bloomberg reported.

It was believed to be the first time such high-grade spyware has been deployed both inside Iran and against members of the Iranian diaspora. The actor behind the operation remains unknown.

Both Kashfi and Miaan declined to reveal the identities of those targeted, citing safety concerns.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which led the suborbital launch of the Qased satellite carrier on Monday, heralded the test as a feat of Iran's space program.

But the timing so soon after Iran's clash with its Mideast arch-nemesis suggests broader goals. Analysts say the launch is part of a deliberate effort to project strength and technological progress in the face of mounting pressure.

“Not only is Iran enhancing its capabilities, but it is also sending a loud political message,” said Sina Azodi, an Assistant Professor of Middle East politics at the Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington DC.

The test, he said, allows Iran to build experience with ballistic missile-related technologies without crossing thresholds that could trigger direct military or diplomatic retaliation.

That balancing act—asserting strength while avoiding escalation—is a hallmark of Iran’s strategy, according to defense experts.

Andrew Fox, a former British Army officer and senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said the launch reflects Iran’s continued determination to pursue long-term military objectives despite recent setbacks.

“Once again we can see the regime trying to keep its options alive through the back door,” Fox told Iran International.

From orbit to arsenal?

Israel's military said it knocked out scores of Iranian missile launchers during its campaign and that Tehran's stocks were badly depleted.

The Qased uses technology similar to that found in ballistic missiles, and Iran’s space program has been criticized by Iran's Western adversaries as a platform for advancing military capabilities.

“The same rocket that launches satellites can launch missiles; it's the identical technology,” said Fatima Al-Asrar, a Yemeni-American policy analyst at the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies.

“The Islamic Republic calls this space research, but every test improves their ability to hit targets at long range. There's no meaningful difference between a space launcher and a ballistic missile in this instance.”

A 2019 report from the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that expertise in space launch vehicles “can be used as a test bed for developing an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missiles).”

Azodi said that while Iran could theoretically develop intercontinental ballistic missiles, they offer little practical value without nuclear warheads, which Iran insists it is not pursuing.

“At any rate, they help Iran with the necessary experience,” he said. “So Iran is sending the message at the time of tensions that it is enhancing its capabilities in a field that could have military applications.” Azodi emphasized that while the technologies used for satellite launches and ICBMs are related, they remain technically distinct—though the former can provide valuable learning for the latter.

The January 2024 launch of the Soraya satellite aboard Iran’s Qaem 100 rocket has drew a sharp response from Britain, France, and Germany—the so-called E3—who warned that the launch vehicle used the same base technology as long-range ballistic missiles.

Kasra Aarabi, director of research on Iran's Revolutionary Guards at US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, said the latest Qased test should push European powers to consider triggering the so-called snapback of United Nations sanctions.

“The Islamic Republic's latest test will make the triggering of the Snapback mechanism by the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—all the more crucial to limit Iran’s capabilities and resources,” Aarabi said.

For Tehran, though, the message is clear: the war with Israel may have exposed vulnerabilities— but it hasn’t shaken its drive to project power across the region—and beyond.

Some London-based underwriters offering war risk insurance for ships on these routes now mandate specific security measures, according to the report, including a certain number of firearms, ammunition and onboard armed personnel.

The decision follows a July 7 attack in which Houthi forces in Yemen launched drones and rockets at a cargo ship off the Yemeni coast, killing two crew members.

London insurers reportedly incurred a 40-million-dollar loss due to the attack, The Telegraph said.

Shipping insurance companies consider the waterways near Iranian territory to be high-risk due to Iran-backed Houthi attacks in Yemen and ongoing tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States.

The Telegraph also reported that vessels recently docked in Israel or sailing under certain flagged states are struggling to secure insurance, as they are considered more likely to be targeted.

Since the beginning of its term, the Trump administration designated the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization and launching a series of airstrikes aimed at disrupting the group’s attacks on shipping lanes and missile launches toward Israel.

Oman brokered a ceasefire in May between the United States and the Iran-backed group which held until the Houthis attacked and sank a cargo ship on July 6 in the Red Sea.

The sanctions target companies based in Yemen and the United Arab Emirates, including Arkan Mars Petroleum and its UAE affiliates, which the US Treasury said coordinated the delivery of $12 million worth of Iranian oil to the Houthis through Yemen’s Ras Isa port.

The transfers allegedly involved Iran’s Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industry Commercial Company (PGPICC), a firm linked to the Revolutionary Guards.

“The Houthis collaborate with opportunistic businessmen to reap enormous profits from the importation of petroleum products and to enable the group’s access to the international financial system,” said Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender.

“These networks of shady businesses underpin the Houthis’ terrorist machine.”

The Treasury said the Houthis earn hundreds of millions of dollars annually by taxing petroleum imports and reselling fuel at marked-up prices in areas under their control.

Images of former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani meeting Russia’s President Vladimir Putin emerged without prior notice on Sunday, shortly after a separate encounter between Putin and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The hardline daily Javan, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported the visit on Monday and questioned its goals and timing.

“It may have been a force majeure meeting—urgent and unpredictable,” an editorial read. “The urgency could stem from last-minute coordination on US and Israeli aggression against Iran, the nuclear dossier, the Gaza crisis and the faltering talks with the European troika.”

Javan dismissed the possibility that arms deals were on the agenda, noting that Moscow has offered only tepid support in recent conflicts despite being “indebted to Iran for undermining American hegemony.”

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei asserted on Monday that Larijani met Putin as a representative of Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

But the very need for clarification may be seen as confirmation of what many in Tehran already believe: Pezeshkian is not a key player in foreign policy, and important messages are conveyed by Khamenei’s aides rather than diplomats.

Signs of a comeback?

Larijani’s sudden appearance alongside Putin was seen by some pundits as a signal that the former parliament speaker might be “back” after a spell out of spotlight.

Vahideh Karimi, political editor of the reformist Sharq, analyzed Larijani’s evolving role. She noted he seized the 12-day war with Israel as an opportunity to reposition himself.

“Larijani knows the corridors of power in Tehran and is widely regarded as a moderate figure well-versed in negotiation,” she wrote.

Once a staunch conservative, Larijani aligned with former President Hassan Rouhani to tap into reformist popularity—a shift reportedly frowned upon by Khamenei, who later barred him from the presidential race.

Since the war, Larijani has returned to more conservative positions. Karimi argues that his Revolutionary Guard background, pragmatic ambiguity and rhetorical agility make him uniquely suited to the current moment.

‘Calculated ambiguity’

The timing of Larijani’s visit to Russia appears strategic. With high-stakes negotiations underway over Tehran’s nuclear program, Iran may have sought counsel from Moscow—its most powerful regional ally.

Karimi also pointed to Larijani’s increased engagement in religious circles as a calculated move to court conservative backing. Still, she warned that Iran’s hardliners—suspicious of independent operators—could once again block his ascent.

Yet Larijani’s key asset, she added, lies in his ambiguity: neither fully beholden to any faction nor entirely obedient, a trait that resonates with many Iranians.

Karimi said the Moscow meeting reflects both Khamenei’s trust in Larijani and possible backing for a future leadership role.