Iran agrees to IAEA technical team visit, but not to inspect sites

David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), said “Iran may announce it has left, but under international law, such a withdrawal wouldn’t be recognized. The prohibition on nuclear weapons would still apply.”

Tehran has floated withdrawing from the NPT, with lawmakers saying a draft bill is ready and could be approved within a day. The threat follows signals from European countries that they may trigger the snapback mechanism to restore sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal.

Iran also cites US and Israeli attacks on its nuclear sites as violations of international obligations, invoking Article 10 of the NPT as grounds for exit.

Asked about Tehran’s likely direction, Albright said Iran would probably try to delay talks while concealing remaining nuclear assets. “Iran will likely attempt to stall negotiations while hiding surviving assets—including any undeclared centrifuges or uranium stockpiles,” he said.

He further cautioned that pursuing nuclear weapons would backfire. “Nuclear weapons are not going to make Iran safer, they will make the situation exponentially worse—for the regime and, most of all, for the Iranian people,” Albright said.

Devastating setback for Iran

Albright said that Israeli and American attacks did profound damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities, adding that the country’s enrichment infrastructure has suffered a devastating setback particularly at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites and may not recover for years, if ever.

"The Iranian nuclear program has been seriously damaged, and for many of the programs, probably they can't recover," Albright said. "This idea of a large-scale enrichment program is really something that has been seriously damaged and may not be replaceable."

Albright, citing satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies and other commercial providers, said the multiple bunker-buster bombs dropped on the underground Fordow facility likely caused "enormous structural damage inside Fordow.”

US attacks on June 22 hit Iran's nuclear sites of Fordow, Esfahan and Natanz, capping off a surprise military campaign by Israel which killed hundreds of people including military personnel, nuclear scientists and civilians.

An initial Pentagon assessment suggested the attacks had only set Iran's nuclear program back by months, but subsequent analysis released by the Central Intelligence Agency said it would take Tehran years to recover.

Albright said while Iran may still possess some residual stockpiles of 60% or 20% enriched uranium, the operational capacity of the Fordow facility has likely been eliminated, and its future viability is in serious doubt.

Around 400 kilograms—more than 900 pounds—of uranium enriched to 60% purity is unaccounted for and now with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) barred from the country, it is unsure if the location can ever be known.

"Combined with the physical impact of the bombing, we assess that most, if not all, centrifuges at Natanz are either destroyed or inoperable.”

Albright said that the Natanz facility was the backbone of Iran’s enrichment capability, and its destruction marks a strategic turning point.

“Iran now appears incapable of producing new centrifuges, and more importantly, it can’t manufacture UF6 feed gas, without which enrichment is impossible,” Albright added.

'Fear, paranoia' among Iran's technical elite

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview following the conflict that Israel had rolled back Iran's nuclear program, but implied Israel had not yet finished its confrontation with the Islamic Republic.

“Israel didn’t just bomb facilities. It eliminated key personnel—scientists and program managers with decades of experience, many of whom were involved in Iran’s early nuclear weapons program in the 2000s,” Albright said.

Albright said Israel released a semi-official list showing that 9 out of 11 nuclear figures it assassinated had direct involvement in Iran’s alleged past nuclear weapons program, adding that some family members of these individuals were also killed.

“This creates a climate of fear and paranoia among Iran’s technical elite, even if the regime wants to rebuild, they now face a workforce that’s terrified, demoralized, and potentially penetrated by foreign intelligence,” Albright added.

“We are fully prepared for any Israeli military action, and our forces stand ready to strike deep into the occupied territories once again,” Masoud Pezeshkian told Al Jazeera Arabic, stressing however that the country does not want war.

The conflict between Iran and Israel was triggered by Israeli airstrikes on June 13 that hit military, nuclear, and civilian sites across Iran. Among those killed were senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists.

Iran retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel.

Iran says 1,062 people were killed during the 12-day conflict with Israel, including 786 military personnel and 276 civilians.

Israeli medical officials say a total of 28 people were killed and over 3,000 were wounded by Iranian attacks.

Pezeshkian said Tehran holds Washington partly responsible for the attacks after the US conducted follow-up strikes to Israel's opening attacks on three major Iranian nuclear facilities, later saying to have "obliterated" them. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel took effect on June 23.

Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful. Pezeshkian repeated the same position in the interview, adding that the Islamic Republic has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons.

“We categorically reject possessing nuclear weapons,” he said. “This is our political, religious, human, and strategic position.”

The president also disputed US President Donald Trump's statement that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been destroyed, calling the claims an "illusion".

“Nuclear capability resides in the minds of our scientists, not in our facilities," he said.

Diplomatic negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program are expected to resume Friday in Istanbul, where Iranian officials will meet representatives of the E3—France, Germany, and the UK. Talks between Iran and the US, previously channeled through Oman, remain suspended following last month’s escalation.

The three European states, known as E3, have said they would restore international sanctions on Iran by the end of August if the country did not enter productive talks on its nuclear program with Western powers.

Pezeshkian said Tehran remains open to diplomacy but added that “Any future negotiations must be based on a win-win logic.”

"Since we obliterated their nuclear program, I think it is time for Iran to come to the table and negotiate with the United States of America on a path towards peace and prosperity for the Iranian people," US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told Fox News.

Still, Whitaker said he did not trust Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to deliver an accord after he told the same network the previous day that US strikes had serious damage Iranian nuclear sites but that Tehran would not give up enrichment.

“I don’t believe a single word that the Iranian foreign minister says,” Whitaker said.

“He’s not a credible voice for peace. President Trump’s been very clear—Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And since we obliterated their nuclear program, I think it is time for Iran to come to the table and negotiate with the United States of America.”

Iran is expected to meet this week with France, Germany and the UK. Tehran has said it will not end uranium enrichment, even as European powers have mooted triggering renewed international sanctions if no agreement is reached by the end of August.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that the administration continues to be open to talks with Iran if it deems to be necessary.

Asked whether NATO allies share the administration’s stance, Whitaker said what he called the free world sees Iran and Russia as destabilizing forces.

“You’re either with the side of peace—peace through strength with Donald Trump and the United States—or you’re with the outcast crew of China, Iran, and others who don’t want peace and prosperity for their people,” he said.

“At the end of the day, our allies want to be with us.”

NATO has been critical of the role of Iran in supplying drones to Russia to use in war against Ukraine.

Secretary General Mark Rutte in May warned of increased coordination among the bloc's adversaries Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

“As the president has said, the Iranian people stand to benefit from negotiating in good faith. The ball is in their court,” said Tammy Bruce, spokesperson for the US State Department. “The Iranian leadership has a window of opportunity to choose a path of peace and prosperity for their people.”

Bruce told reporters Tuesday that Washington is “also ready to talk directly to the Iranians,” while coordinating closely with its E3 partners—Britain, France and Germany.

Bruce's remarks come ahead of Friday’s meeting in Istanbul, where the E3 will meet directly with Iranian diplomats at the deputy foreign minister level to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions measures.

“The topic of the talks is clear, lifting sanctions and issues related to the peaceful nuclear program of Iran,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said in his weekly briefing.

Speaking on Fox News ahead of the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran will not abandon its nuclear program—including uranium enrichment—despite “severe” damage from recent US strikes.

“Our enrichment is so dear to us,” he said. “Obviously we cannot give up our enrichment, because it is an achievement of our own scientists and now more than that, it is a question of national pride," Araghchi told Fox News.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which led the suborbital launch of the Qased satellite carrier on Monday, heralded the test as a feat of Iran's space program.

But the timing so soon after Iran's clash with its Mideast arch-nemesis suggests broader goals. Analysts say the launch is part of a deliberate effort to project strength and technological progress in the face of mounting pressure.

“Not only is Iran enhancing its capabilities, but it is also sending a loud political message,” said Sina Azodi, an Assistant Professor of Middle East politics at the Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington DC.

The test, he said, allows Iran to build experience with ballistic missile-related technologies without crossing thresholds that could trigger direct military or diplomatic retaliation.

That balancing act—asserting strength while avoiding escalation—is a hallmark of Iran’s strategy, according to defense experts.

Andrew Fox, a former British Army officer and senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said the launch reflects Iran’s continued determination to pursue long-term military objectives despite recent setbacks.

“Once again we can see the regime trying to keep its options alive through the back door,” Fox told Iran International.

From orbit to arsenal?

Israel's military said it knocked out scores of Iranian missile launchers during its campaign and that Tehran's stocks were badly depleted.

The Qased uses technology similar to that found in ballistic missiles, and Iran’s space program has been criticized by Iran's Western adversaries as a platform for advancing military capabilities.

“The same rocket that launches satellites can launch missiles; it's the identical technology,” said Fatima Al-Asrar, a Yemeni-American policy analyst at the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies.

“The Islamic Republic calls this space research, but every test improves their ability to hit targets at long range. There's no meaningful difference between a space launcher and a ballistic missile in this instance.”

A 2019 report from the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that expertise in space launch vehicles “can be used as a test bed for developing an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missiles).”

Azodi said that while Iran could theoretically develop intercontinental ballistic missiles, they offer little practical value without nuclear warheads, which Iran insists it is not pursuing.

“At any rate, they help Iran with the necessary experience,” he said. “So Iran is sending the message at the time of tensions that it is enhancing its capabilities in a field that could have military applications.” Azodi emphasized that while the technologies used for satellite launches and ICBMs are related, they remain technically distinct—though the former can provide valuable learning for the latter.

The January 2024 launch of the Soraya satellite aboard Iran’s Qaem 100 rocket has drew a sharp response from Britain, France, and Germany—the so-called E3—who warned that the launch vehicle used the same base technology as long-range ballistic missiles.

Kasra Aarabi, director of research on Iran's Revolutionary Guards at US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, said the latest Qased test should push European powers to consider triggering the so-called snapback of United Nations sanctions.

“The Islamic Republic's latest test will make the triggering of the Snapback mechanism by the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—all the more crucial to limit Iran’s capabilities and resources,” Aarabi said.

For Tehran, though, the message is clear: the war with Israel may have exposed vulnerabilities— but it hasn’t shaken its drive to project power across the region—and beyond.