Tehran's downfall would likely be violent, congressman predicts

“The discussions that will be held tomorrow are a continuation of previous talks. Our position is completely clear,” Abbas Araghchi was quoted as saying by Iran’s official IRNA.

“The world must know that there has been no change in our position, and we continue to firmly and resolutely defend the rights of the Iranian people to peaceful nuclear energy, particularly enrichment.”

The meeting with the three European powers, collectively known as the E3, will be the first since last month’s US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

It comes as pressure mounts ahead of the October expiry of a 2015 nuclear deal which remains in effect among Iran, the E3, China and Russia after the United States withdrew in 2018. The accord lifted international sanctions in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program.

Washington and its European allies have set an end-of-August deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear deal or face the reimposition of full UN sanctions under the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism.

Under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, any party to the accord can file a complaint accusing Iran of non-compliance.

If no agreement is reached within 30 days to maintain sanctions relief, all previous UN sanctions would automatically “snapback,” including arms embargoes, cargo inspections and missile restrictions.

Snapback mechanism focus of Istanbul talks

The meeting in Istanbul on Friday will be focused on the snapback mechanism, Reuters reported earlier on Thursday, citing diplomats from Europe, the Middle East and Iran.

The E3 is due to float the possibility to Iran of extending the snapback mechanism by up to six months, the report said.

In return, Iran would need to make commitments on key issues, including eventual talks with Washington, full cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, and accounting for its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

On Wednesday, twenty US senators sponsored a resolution urging the E3 to trigger the snapback mechanism on Iran as soon as possible.

A day earlier, US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Washington is open to direct talks with Iran but the next move must come from Tehran.

The defendant, identified as Mohamed Orahhou, a Norwegian national in his 20s, was arrested in November 2024. He is accused of collecting and passing classified information that prosecutors say could damage Norway’s national security and undermine the safety of US diplomatic staff.

According to the indictment filed by Norway’s National Authority for Prosecution of Organized and Other Serious Crime, Orahhou shared a wide range of sensitive material between March and November 2023.

Orahhou allegedly passed on a classified list of couriers from Norway’s intelligence service; names, addresses, and phone numbers of US Embassy staff, diplomats, and their family members; embassy floor plans and evacuation routes; security procedures and equipment details; records of pre-booked visits; and photos of garage facilities and communications infrastructure.

Prosecutors allege that the information was handed over to Russian and Iranian agents in clandestine meetings in Norway, Serbia, and Turkey.

In exchange, Orahhou received €10,000 from Russian authorities and 0.17 Bitcoin—then worth approximately $10,000—from Iranian operatives. The indictment also includes charges of tax fraud.

According to the indictment, Orahhou attempted to conceal the payments by channeling them through family members’ and friends’ bank accounts before retrieving the funds.

Orahhou is charged under Norwegian espionage laws, which carry a maximum sentence of 21 years in prison if convicted.

Prosecutors argue that the information he passed on “violated fundamental national interests” and posed a significant security risk to both Norway and the United States.

His defense attorneys, Inger Zadig and John Christian Elden, confirmed that Orahhou acknowledges the factual elements of the indictment but denies that his actions meet the legal criteria for espionage.

“At its core, this case concerns legal interpretation—specifically, whether and to what extent the information in question was ‘classified’ under the law, and whether it was capable of harming fundamental national interests,” Zadig said in an email to the Associated Press. “If not, then sharing the information is not a criminal offense.”

“Our client did not hold a security clearance, and his access to information that could threaten vital national interests was more or less non-existent. These issues will be thoroughly addressed in court,” she added in a message to The New York Times.

Following his arrest in November, Orahhou admitted to interrogators that he had shared information with an officer from Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR), as well as with unidentified Iranian officials. Authorities also reported seizing a “large” volume of digital material from his home, which they are continuing to analyze.

At the time, Orahhou was also studying for a bachelor’s degree in security and preparedness at Norway’s Arctic University (UiT) and operated a private security company.

His trial is scheduled to begin on August 19 in Oslo District Court, with two weeks allotted for proceedings.

The case has emerged against the backdrop of growing concerns across Europe over a surge in espionage activities linked to Russia and Iran.

A study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies found that suspected Russian sabotage operations in Europe nearly quadrupled between 2023 and 2024.

Meanwhile, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said in October 2024 that the UK had disrupted at least 20 Iranian-backed plots posing potentially lethal threats to British citizens.

“We are not in the business of deploying the 82nd Airborne to do regime changes anywhere,” Sebastian Gorka, deputy assistant to the president and senior director for counterterrorism at the White House, told an event at Washington DC thinktank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“We would like the people of Persia, including all the minorities in Persia, to eventually liberate themselves.”

A ceasefire late last month ended a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran that was capped off by US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump both mooted killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the height of the conflict and Trump hinted at favoring Iranian regime change.

"It’s not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social in late June.

Israel’s prime minister also said on Tuesday that Iran’s clerical leadership will fall from within not through any foreign military intervention.

“Everybody talks about regime change and they envision the American army and Israeli forces invading Iran — boots on the ground and all that stuff people spew. No,” Netanyahu said in an interview with the Full Send Podcast.

Israel's surprise campaign of airstrikes and drone attacks killed hundreds of Iranians including civilians, military personnel and nuclear scientists. Iran's retaliatory missile strikes killed 27 Israeli civilians.

UN Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted on July 20, 2015, endorses the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries. The US unilaterally withdrew the accord in 2018.

The resolution includes provisions for monitoring Iran's compliance and sets a timeline for the eventual end of UN sanctions, provided Iran upholds its commitments.

“We held a joint meeting with the ambassadors and permanent representatives of China and Russia to review developments and adopt shared positions,” said Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs.

“We always coordinate our positions on key international issues, especially those concerning Iran.”

The meeting took place at Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations on the sidelines of Gharibabadi’s trip to attend Security Council sessions.

A high-level meeting with Russian and Chinese officials was also held in Tehran on Tuesday, as reported by IRNA state news agency. This was part of a diplomatic effort to shield the country from the threat of reimposed UN sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal’s snapback mechanism.

Gharibabadi also warned Wednesday that if European powers trigger the snapback mechanism, “leaving the NPT remains an option.”

Tehran has also agreed to host a technical team from the International Atomic Energy Agency in the coming weeks to discuss what Gharibabadi called a “new model for cooperation.”

“The delegation will come to discuss this framework,” he said. “They will not be inspecting nuclear sites.”

Late in June, Iran’s parliament voted to suspend cooperation with the IAEA after the ceasefire with Israel, demanding security guarantees.

Red lines for talks with Washington

The Iranian diplomat said talks could resume if Washington builds trust, pledges not to use negotiations as a pretext for military action, and recognizes Iran’s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"To enter negotiations with the American side, several principles are essential: building Iran’s trust — as Iran has absolutely no trust in the United States; ensuring that talks are not used as a platform for hidden agendas such as military action, even though Iran will remain fully prepared; and respecting and recognizing Iran’s rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, including enrichment in accordance with its desired needs," he wrote in a post on X Thursday.

Gharibabadi will lead the Iranian delegation for talks with European powers in Istanbul on Friday - in what appears to be a last-ditch effort to salvage a deal and avert a return of United Nations sanctions against Iran.

Washington confirmed on Tuesday that it is coordinating closely with the E3 (Britain, France and Germany) ahead of the Istanbul talks, while remaining "ready to talk directly" to Tehran.

“The nuclear industry in our country is firmly established. Pressure and attacks cannot uproot it. It will flourish again,” said Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.

His remarks come as Tehran prepares for renewed nuclear talks with Britain, France and Germany, under pressure from European powers threatening to trigger the UN snapback mechanism by the end of August if Iran fails to return to substantive negotiations.

The diplomatic pressure follows last month’s US-Israeli airstrikes on June 22, which targeted Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

President Donald Trump called the mission, dubbed Midnight Hammer, a success, saying the goal was to “completely destroy” Iran’s uranium enrichment capability. The Pentagon said the attacks, carried out by B-2 bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles, delayed Iran’s program by one to two years.

Enrichment halted, Iran vows to rebuild

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Fox News earlier this week that enrichment had stopped due to the “serious and severe” damage. “We cannot give up enrichment,” he told Fox News. “It is a question of national pride.” He added that the facilities were destroyed but said the program could be rebuilt because the technology and scientists remain in place.

The June strikes came after an Israeli missile barrage on June 13 triggered a 12-day war between Israel and Iran. A ceasefire was reached on June 24. The attacks also followed five rounds of nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington. Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018.

Despite operational setbacks, Iranian officials continue to emphasize the long-term durability of the nuclear program. “Buildings can be rebuilt. Machines can be replaced. The people who made them are still here,” Araghchi said.

Kamalvandi echoed that view on Thursday, saying the attacks may delay progress but would not derail Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “This industry will bloom again,” he said.