Who calls the shots? Iran's policy split laid bare by ‘shadow rule’ claims

"The geography of the response and the battlefield may change, and Iran's reactions will be more crushing than previously observed," state media outlet Mehr news cited the spokesman of the sprawling military organization as saying.

“If the Zionist regime launches a new attack on the powerful and resilient Iran, the initiative to end the conflict will be in our hands,’ Ali Mohammad Naeini said.

Israel's surprise 12-day military campaign against Iran last month killed hundreds of military personnel and civilians in air strikes and drone attacks. Missile salvos by Iran killed 28 Israeli civilians.

Iranian military leaders had made similar threats against Israel before the conflict, and official declarations of victory following the war have yet to substantively grapple with the lopsided toll and Tehran's intelligence lapses.

“We will not allow the sirens in the occupied territories to fall silent, and the enemy must not have the opportunity to leave its shelters,” Naeini said. “They will experience more fleeing and displacement than they did during the 12-day war.”

Iran's armed allies in the region have been degraded by nearly two years of Israeli attacks, but an Emirati news outlet reported on Wednesday that a top IRGC general traveled to Iraq to shore up support for Tehran-backed militias there.

Citing Iraqi political sources close to the Shi'ite-run political establishment, al-Ain al-Ekhbariya reported that the commander of the IRGC's elite Quds Force Esmail Qaani made an unannounced visit to Iran's neighbor.

The visit, the outlet said, involved meetings with senior Shi'ite political and militia leaders and aimed at shoring up unity and coordination as parliamentary elections loom.

Mysterious attacks hit Western-run oil facilities in Iraq's Kurdish region this month, in strikes blamed by local officials on Iran-backed militias. The sources cited by al-Ain al-Ekhbariya alleged Qaani described the events as not authorized by Tehran.

Meanwhile Iran-backed Houthi forces resumed attacks on maritime shipping without explanation following the Iran-Israel ceasefire.

Following a US-brokered ceasefire on June 25, Israel and Iran have repeatedly exchanged threats.

Israel 'wiped off the face of the earth'

Iran’s interim chief of staff, Habibollah Sayyari, praised the Islamic Republic’s wartime performance on Wednesday, saying the conflict extended beyond just Israel.

“People must understand that we did not fight just one regime, we fought the world. That means we fought NATO, Europe and the United States. This is very important, yet we emerged from it with our heads held high,” Sayyari said.

Former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaei added to the uptick of official military rhetoric on Wednesday, threatening to eradicate Israel.

“A day will come when great revenge and severe punishment will be carried out, and Israel will be wiped off the face of the earth forever,” Rezaei said on Wednesday.

Iran’s parliament on Wednesday passed parts of a bill titled Support for Iranians Abroad that MPs say aims to help Tehran reengage with the diaspora.

Last week, President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iranians living in other countries should be able to return without fear.

His culture minister, Reza Salehi Amiri, then appeared on state TV to hammer the message home: “This land belongs to you, and we are rolling out the red carpet."

Yet skepticism runs deep.

Returnees—especially dual nationals—have often been detained, interrogated, or sentenced on vague charges such as propaganda against the system or acting against national security.

‘Almost none stayed long’

“From (President Mohammad) Khatami in the late 1990s to Pezeshkian now, everyone has tried to woo expat professionals and people with financial resources to invest back in Iran,” Kamran, a 56-year-old who runs a family business in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, told Iran International.

“I know a few who came back over the years, but almost none stayed long enough to invest.”

Kamran’s children live in Canada. He says he prefers they not return, even for short visits.

“They participated in every protest rally in Canada in recent years and have posted anti-government content online,” he explains. “That can get them into serious trouble. I won’t let them take any risks.”

Mitra, a housewife in Tehran, says her relatives avoid returning for the same reason.

“They meet their parents in countries like Turkey once or twice a year. It’s hard for their elderly parents, but they feel it’s better to be safe than sorry.”

New bill, old problems

There are an estimated 4 to 5 million Iranians living abroad—from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates to Australia, North America and nearly every country in Western Europe. Collectively, their wealth is believed to exceed one trillion dollars.

To tap into that potential, parliament is reviewing a bill titled Support for Iranians Abroad, proposing easier travel, expanded consular services, looser dual citizenship restrictions, and new academic and investment incentives.

“I don’t know what the government is thinking, asking diaspora Iranians to come back and invest. They must be fools to do so when neither their lives nor their money is safe,” said Mehdi, a 45-year-old artist in Tehran.

Other critics say the real obstacles are structural: deep corruption, cronyism and the dominance of security institutions over the economy.

“Diaspora Iranians don’t just listen to officials’ words—they watch their actions,” wrote former telecom minister Mohammad-Javad Azari-Jahromi on X. “Concrete reform of policies and procedures matters more than slogans.”

Social media activist Arash Ghaffari mocked the initiative given the country's ongoing water and electricity outages.

“The honorable President has invited Iranians abroad to return to their beloved homeland, overflowing with water and electricity in the summer, an abundance of gas in the winter, a land of stable prices, an economic paradise!” he posted on X.

In an open submission hotline to Iran International, people inside the country shared their experiences of hardship.

“I wish I could talk in depth about medicine prices, but since there’s no medicine to find, any such talk is useless,” one respondent said.

Another highlighted the difficulties women face in the market for hygiene products and supplements.

“Menstrual pads are hard to find, and prices are very high. A pack of magnesium pills for strengthening hair, nails and skin, even an Iranian brand, costs 570,000 tomans ($13),” she said.

'More hellish by the day'

Water and electricity shortages and outages have hit Iran in recent weeks, hitting daily life and harming health services.

“Iran’s medicine and treatment situation is a disaster as big as water shortages and other crises. Overall, Iran is becoming more hellish daily in every way,” another message said.

Some respondents said they were bypassing Iran’s market to get medicine from abroad.

“I bought thyroid pills for myself from Turkey for a year. The money I paid at the free exchange rate equals buying pills in Iran for 4 months. Plus, the ones from Turkey are genuine German, while those in Iran are terrible, have no effect, and expire in two to three months," one contributor said.

“It’s been days without medicine," another said. "I have no money. Borrowed today, got half—infinitely expensive. I don’t know what to do.”

Hard to afford

Some responses indicate that with rising prices, insurance companies are dropping coverage.

“Last year, a respiratory spray cost 500,000 tomans ($ 6), and insurance covered 85%. Now it’s 3 million tomans ($ 71 ), and insurance doesn’t cover it anymore," one said through a message.

"The asthma spray I used to get with insurance for 100,000 tomans a few months ago. Yesterday, one oral spray 400,000 ($ 9),"another respondent added.

The increasing prominence of the black market and the inflow of expired medicines with no quality control was also an oft-cited concern.

“Drug prices have broken the backs of people, especially the middle, lower-middle, and poor classes," a respondent said. "Meds are either unaffordable or expensive, unavailable, or, if found, are either expired or fake, especially in the black market where addicts, thieves, and dealers sell.”

Iranians, including children, dependent on medicines now face steep price hikes.

“I used to buy my kid’s medicine for 450,000 tomans ($ 10); now it’s 870,000 tomans ($ 20),” one said.

"I have diabetes. In the last five months, insulin was distributed only once," a respondent said. "It can't be obtained from the market at all, even at ten times the cost."

In their public letter to President Masoud Pezeshkian, published July 28 in multiple outlets, the Reform Front warned that the ceasefire with Israel is fragile and a return of UN sanctions is imminent, urging a fundamental rethink of foreign policy.

“A comprehensive development strategy instead of a strategy of survival and confrontation requires negotiations with the United States and European governments to resolve mutual issues, lift sanctions, and obtain necessary security guarantees,” the letter read.

It warned that unless such a path is taken, Iran faces either a renewed war that would devastate the country’s vital infrastructure, or a prolonged state of neither war nor peace, marked by total isolation that would erode the Iran's capacity to function.

“Minor and piecemeal reforms will not solve the country’s problems,” the authors said. “Today, the nation needs bold and difficult choices.”

Mounting hardship, muted leadership

The call comes amid growing economic hardship, with chronic water and electricity outages fueling public anger and hampering an already strained economy.

The Reform Front accused Pezeshkian of failing to stand up to hardliner overreach, including the recent act of parliament requiring the administration to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“The president has remained silent in the face of a war-mongering foreign policy and the state broadcaster’s continuous attacks against his own government,” they wrote.

Hardline backlash was swift and scathing.

‘Discredited losers’

Javan, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, called the letter an echo of demands by the Islamic Republic’s opposition. Conservative commentator and former Javan chief Abdollah Ganji rejected the moderates’ advice as “a call for surrender” in daily Hamshahri.

But the harshest attack—as usual—came from Kayhan, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

“What’s striking is that they don’t dare say … what exactly should be done now for these discredited political losers to consider it a ‘revision of policies’ or a ‘correct decision,’” read a Monday editorial.

“Should we hand over our defensive deterrent? Completely shut down the nuclear program? Release the arrested spies and traitors so they can commit more acts of treason?"

"If the CIA and Mossad had commissioned people to translate their unmet demands into Persian, would it have looked any different from this letter?” the editorial asked.

Some users said that when requesting reasons for losing services from providers, they were advised to contact the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cyber Command or the Cybercrime Prosecution Office of the General Prosecutor's Office.

Upon contacting the offices, users received written instructions to verify their identity, sign a pledge not to criticize the state and post twenty messages of praise for the Islamic Republic on social media, Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported on Tuesday.

The disconnection of SIM card services was implemented without prior warning or judicial order, it added.

One user shared a message from the Prosecutor’s Office identifying the service disruption and required actions.

“Your hostile and malicious activities on social media, contrary to the country's laws and interests, have been monitored and identified by the intelligent AI systems of the prosecutor's office. Accordingly, your internet account and SIM card services have been restricted or blocked,” the message to users read.

“To lift the restrictions and blocks, you are required to write the following pledge on a piece of paper, sign it, and provide your fingerprint. Additionally, you must publish at least twenty posts with positive content supporting the Islamic Republic of Iran on social media. These posts must not be shared simultaneously,” the message adds.

The pledge says that the "offending" individual accepts they will face legal prosecution if they repeat "malicious" activities, adding that all activities of such users will be under “constant AI monitoring,” HRANA said.

The report indicated the phenomenon was not new but appears to be becoming more widespread.

“They disconnect SIM cards with no due process, then force people to sign the pledge and remove content they don’t like," Iranian lawyer Mohsen Borhani warned this month on X. "Sadly, this is all illegal, but it’s becoming a common practice."