Iran's repaired air defenses and stock of unused missiles mean it can fend off Israeli attack and wreak more damage in another war, a media outlet affiliated with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday.
“Iran’s air defense was damaged early in the 12-day war, but since then Iran has rebuilt and modernized its systems. Israel now realizes that Iran’s air defense in a future war would be multiple times stronger,” Tasnim News wrote in an editorial.
One of the most comprehensive official takes from Iran's security apparatus which was badly bludgeoned in the June conflict, the article doubled down on an official narrative that Tehran had triumphed and pledged greater future accomplishments.
Another Israeli attack is highly unlikely, it added, warning that concerns in Iran of renewed hostility in Iran was unhelpful speculation.
“Iran’s missile arsenal remains intact, and some of its most destructive missiles haven’t even been used yet. Any new war would mean greater destruction in Israeli-occupied territories,” the article said.
'Regime change failed'
Israel launched a surprise military campaign on June 13 targeting military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and killing hundreds of civilians. In response, Iranian missile strikes killed 29 Israeli civilians.
According to an Iranian government spokesperson, 1,062 Iranians were killed during the conflict, including 786 military personnel and 276 civilians.
The United States capped off the conflict with attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow with long-range bombers and submarine-launched missiles on June 22. Washington brokered a ceasefire on June 24.
Tasnim also warned that some media outlets and social media users continue to raise the alarm about another imminent Israeli attack. However, it argued that Israel’s core objective “regime change in Iran” had failed.
“In the recent war, Israel bet heavily on political and social collapse in Iran, expecting the public to turn against the Islamic Republic. But what actually happened was the complete opposite of their expectations,” the article said.
In response to the attacks on its nuclear facilities, Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), conditioning any future engagement on new terms.
Iran’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that the UN nuclear watchdog must clarify how it intends to inspect nuclear sites bombed by Israel and the United States.
Israel not positioned for a second attack
The article contended that Israel’s surprise attack was the result of years of intelligence preparation, and that replicating such an operation would require years more planning.
“After decades of intelligence gathering and planning, Israel attempted to catch Iran off guard, assassinating commanders, disabling defense systems and aiming for a swift decapitation strike,” the report said.
“It did kill several high-ranking military officials and nuclear scientists, but failed to achieve its main goal: the collapse of Iran’s political and social structure and its defense systems,” Tasnim added.
Among those killed during the war were several senior IRGC commanders, including Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh and IRGC Deputy for Operations Mehdi Rabbani.
“Israel gambled everything on this surprise attack but lost. Rebuilding its intelligence network will now take years, meaning Israel is not logically positioned to mount another assault,” the report said.
An Iranian analyst said in July that Israel had hacked Iran’s entire air defense system during the war and that more than 100 Iranian missile launchers exploded upon activation.
“Israel has already lost a war it spent decades preparing for. With exposed defense systems, internal political chaos, and Iran growing stronger and more united, a second act of aggression would not only fail, but would bring even more devastating consequences,” Tasnim added.
According to the Central Bank, each pilgrim traveling to Iraq for the annual ceremony may receive up to 200,000 Iraqi dinars at a subsidized rate, priced roughly $18 below Tehran’s open market exchange.
The Arbaeen ceremony marks the end of the 40-day mourning period following Ashura, the religious ritual commemorating the death of the third Shia Imam, Hussain ibn Ali.
With officials projecting that 3.7 million people will cross the border, the total state subsidy amounts to nearly 62,900 billion rials or $67.6 million.
Shia Muslims walk vast distances, even hundreds of kilometers, to reach the shrine and other nearby sites.
Although small groups of Iranians had made the pilgrimage in the years after Saddam Hussein’s fall in 2003, the numbers surged after 2010, when official data first recorded 40,000 pilgrims.
By 2019, participation reached three million, before declining sharply during the pandemic. The growth has been fueled by active promotion by the government and large-scale government investment in roads, healthcare services, and logistical support for pilgrims.
In addition to currency subsidies, state-affiliated charities, municipalities, city councils, and various government bodies allocate dedicated budgets each year to organize the event and provide services along the route.
These include free meals, subsidized transport, and free Wi-Fi access along the main routes and within Karbala.
Roundtrip tickets from Tehran to Najaf—where many pilgrims begin the walk—range between 130 and 150 million rials (approximately $138 to $159), Adel Nourali of Iran’s Airlines Association said this week.
The large portion of each fare allocated to Iraqi airport fees has intensified concerns over concealed state subsidies.
1,550 tons of subsidised food including lamb, chicken, sugar, and rice will be distributed to religious camp organizers at massively reduced rates, Jebreil Baradari, head of Tehran’s Agricultural Jihad Organization said this week.
The offer comes as the cost of meat in Iran has soared and per capita meat consumption has fallen as over one third of the country is now living below the poverty line.