Iran says won't negotiate under pre-war terms, rules out ‘business as usual’

Barely a week after the E3 (France, Germany and UK) set in motion the thirty-day countdown to reimpose UN sanctions, forty Republican lawmakers asked President Donald Trump to bar Iranian delegates from freely entering the United States.

Russia and China have signaled opposition to Europe’s move, offering Tehran diplomatic cover. But it’s not clear how far they would go if push came to shove.

For Israel, timing is critical.

The twelve-day war of 2025 showed both the dangers of escalation and the effectiveness of targeted strikes.

Israeli operations killed senior IRGC and Quds Force commanders and damaged Iran’s drone and missile networks. US forces joined with limited but highly consequential strikes on elements of Iran’s nuclear facilities, temporarily disrupting enrichment.

Iran can rebuild, but the episode laid bare the vulnerability of its most sensitive assets.

Yet the war also underscored the Islamic Republic's resilience and appetite for risk.

Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, yet the conflict deepened doubts about its strategic trajectory under pressure.

At home, strains are mounting.

A summer of rolling blackouts, water shortages, and currency collapse has pushed the rial to historic lows. Inflation has eroded living standards, fueling discontent.

The return of UN sanctions could intensify instability, further constraining Tehran’s options abroad.

Against this backdrop, some policymakers are weighing military options, raising the question of international law.

Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, force is lawful only in response to an actual or imminent attack. Preventive strikes—such as Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor, unanimously condemned by the Security Council—remain controversial.

Iran’s program today is far more hardened and dispersed, and even a coordinated campaign could only delay, not dismantle, it—while risking multi-front retaliation.
The global economic dimension looms just as large.

Iran has long threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which remains the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoint, and even limited hostilities could spike oil prices and strain fragile economies from Europe to Asia.

Despite these risks, advocates of preemptive strikes insist that the dangers of inaction outweigh the costs of escalation.

Yet the 12-day war underscored how quickly limited action can spiral into regional confrontation.

Iran has signaled tentative flexibility, but the snapback has created rare international cohesion. The coming weeks will determine whether pressure yields compliance, confrontation, or a recalibration across the region.

Two children were killed on August 5 in a village in northern Golestan province when a gas leak ignited as power was restored, the paper said.

Ten days later, two youths aged 16 and 18 in Fars suffocated after sheltering from the heat in a running car inside a garage; and a Tabriz resident died in an elevator-related accident as power disruptions multiplied,” according to Etemad.

“I wish we had never had electricity. It took the lives of my two children. They had just begun to live, had just stepped into society full of hopes and dreams. Suddenly, when the power came back, my house exploded. I came and saw the wall had collapsed on my daughter. Blood was coming from everywhere,” the bereaved mother said in a video shared after the Golestan blast.

Fatal incidents and urban hazards

Fire officials in Isfahan reported a 284% jump in elevator entrapments over a one-month period tied to outages. In the southwestern city of Yasuj, up to 20 people were trapped at once during blackouts, while reports from Khorramabad in west put such incidents at three to four times last year’s level, Etemad wrote.

Etemad interviewed 11 people across Yazd, Tehran, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Ardebil and Urmia, including patients with butterfly disease and people with spinal cord injuries.

A young woman in Shiraz said a routine 10-minute eye procedure stretched to over an hour because a surgical microscope repeatedly failed.

“Power fluctuations burned the microscope lamp in the middle of my eye surgery,” she said, adding that repeated replacements failed until the device was swapped out, leaving lasting damage to her right eye.

Patients with chronic conditions described blackouts as dangerous and costly. Frequent cuts forced daily dressing changes and purchases of pricier creams, A butterfly disease patient in Yazd said.

A man with a spinal injury in rural Urmia feared his anti-bedsore mattress would fail in surges: without it, he said, pressure ulcers were likely. Others said that when electricity goes, well pumps stop and mobile networks and home internet also drop, compounding risks for those needing help.

Strain on daily life and business

Shopkeepers and small businesses reported spoiled food and lost inventory; one confectioner filmed trays of discarded cakes, blaming a single outage for rent, labor and waste. Poultry farmers in Dezful, Khuzestan province, cited higher mortality and reduced chick placement amid daily cuts.

Etemad’s reporting underscores how prolonged outages—often four to five hours a day—are cascading through homes, clinics and city infrastructure. The accounts point to a growing public safety challenge where routine power cuts are now measured not just in inconvenience, but in injuries and deaths.

The paper said the gatherings take place every Thursday, with around 100 people holding placards demanding clarity on their cases. Many applicants told Shargh they have been left in “suspension,” with neither approvals nor rejections issued.

Some of the protesters are family members applying for reunification visas. “I have been separated from my wife and children for more than three years. I completed my interview in May but since then there has been no answer,” one applicant, Masoud, was quoted as saying.

Students and jobseekers at risk

Others said they risk losing jobs or university placements. Bita, who has an offer to study for a master’s degree in Germany, said her semester begins in October but no interview date has been set. “The risk of missing my term is real, and then I may have to start the whole process again,” she said.

Shargh estimated more than 6,000 people face delays, including some 4,000 in family reunification cases. Applicants accused Germany of discriminatory treatment, pointing to faster processing in neighboring countries.

Reduced embassy services

The protests follow Germany’s announcement last month that its Tehran embassy would operate at reduced capacity after Ambassador Markus Potzel ended his mission, citing “personal reasons.” Berlin said staff cuts would mean stricter visa issuance.

Impact of the June war

Several embassies scaled back or suspended consular services in Iran during and after the June conflict with Israel, leaving thousands of passports stuck in foreign missions. While some countries have since resumed normal operations, Germany has continued to restrict services.

The café’s Instagram page had advertised a Friday gathering with a DJ and cash prizes for participants. But it later posted an image of a police closure notice and urged followers not to attend.

Despite extensive legal restrictions, more women have taken up motorcycles in Iranian cities in recent years, particularly since the protests over Mahsa Amini’s death in morality police custody. The trend has spread beyond Tehran to places such as Yazd and other provinces, according to officials.

Under current law, women are barred from obtaining motorcycle licenses. The traffic code amendment passed in 2010 specifies men only, leaving women who ride in a legal vacuum. Driving without a license is an offense, yet enforcement against women riders has been uneven, with police issuing warnings or seizing bikes at their discretion.

Kazem Delkhosh, deputy in the parliamentary affairs office of President Masoud Pezeshkian, said in August the government is considering changes. “We are preparing legislation for women who want to ride and the women’s affairs office is also working on a bill,” Delkhosh told the state-run Iran newspaper.

Lack of licensing carries wider consequences, he added. “If a female rider is injured or causes damage, there is no license to hold her accountable or for insurance to cover losses,” Delkhosh said.

Senior police officials maintain the current ban is binding. “According to existing law, licenses for female motorcyclists cannot be issued,” the deputy head of the traffic police said last month.

Religious ban

Clerics often argue that women riding motorcycles (or bicycles) in public settings may attract male attention, threaten societal morality, and undermine women’s chastity—even if they're fully covered.

Others, however, argue the restrictions are inconsistent. “If a woman can drive a bus or truck and earn people’s trust, why not a motorcycle?” sociologist Maryam Yousefi asked in an interview with Iran newspaper.

Rights groups have repeatedly called for change. On International Women’s Day this year, 30 organizations demanded an end to gender-based discrimination.

The sealing of the café has once more underscored the clash between social realities and restrictions, leaving women riders caught between growing public visibility and an unresolved legal void.

In the hardline Kayhan daily, columnist Jafar Bolouri described the country’s situation as “extraordinary,” cautioning that a new war could erupt at any moment alongside worsening economic and social pressure. He said the government’s priorities “do not match the situation,” accusing it of focusing on secondary issues instead of inflation, which “creates openings for enemies to exploit.”

The IRGC-linked Javan wrote that Western powers, unable to achieve their goals in the June 12-day war, are now using the snapback process as part of a “cognitive war” to inflame the economy and provoke unrest. “Supporters of the Zionist regime…exploit the snapback and hostile media to stir inflation, currency volatility and social unrest,” the paper said, warning that “domestic infiltrators” amplify these pressures.

The reformist Ham Mihan criticized what it called complacency among officials. “Snapback leads to the return of Security Council resolutions and gives sanctions a binding legal character. Evading them will be very difficult and costly,” the paper said. It added: “Some believe snapback adds little to existing sanctions. Such an interpretation is completely wrong.”

Snapback countdown

On August 28, Britain, France and Germany triggered the UN snapback mechanism, demanding that Tehran return to talks, grant inspectors wider access and account for its uranium stockpile. Under Resolution 2231, sanctions will automatically return after 30 days unless the Security Council votes otherwise.

Tehran has rejected the step. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in Doha on Thursday that the decision was “illegal and unjustifiable,” and insisted that the EU should “play its role in fulfilling its responsibilities to neutralize moves against diplomacy.”

IAEA report raises alarm

A confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remains “a matter of serious concern” after inspectors lost visibility following Israeli and US strikes in June. The report noted Iran had 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium as of June 13, a short step from weapons-grade levels.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told Reuters: “It would be ideal to reach an agreement before next week. It’s not something that can drag on for months.”

Officials downplay risks

Not all voices share the newspapers’ sense of alarm. IRGC political deputy Yadollah Javani called snapback talk a “psychological operation” to mask Western defeat in the June war. Babak Negahdari, head of parliament’s research center, argued that “the real pressure on Iran has come from US secondary sanctions,” and said any UN measures could be blunted by Russia and China, though he acknowledged “psychological and economic side effects if not handled carefully.”

Former presidential chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi stressed that “some individuals do not understand the sensitivity of this moment” and warned against rhetoric that fuels division. He said the 12-day war had proved “national cohesion has completely overturned the enemy’s calculations,” and urged leaders to focus on preserving unity.