Iran rejects Arab-Islamic summit’s call for two-state solution

The scrambled messaging suggests deep disagreement on Iran's diplomatic path forward as renewed UN sanctions loom by months-end and arch-foe Israel continues to moot military attacks to chasten Tehran.

Negotiated by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the Cairo deal addressed an impasse between the UN nuclear watchdog and Tehran after the latter refused to let inspectors resume work following surprise US and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June.

While ultra-hardliners warn it risks national security, supporters insist the agreement reflects careful diplomacy rather than a threat to sovereignty.

Iranian lawmakers convened an emergency meeting with Araghchi on Saturday to review the agreement.

The Supreme National Security Council released a statement shortly after the session announcing that the deal aligns with its nuclear committee’s prior approval, emphasizing that submission of reports on facilities targeted by US and Israeli attacks, and any further operational procedures, would require SNSC authorization.

“While the government emphasizes the legal frameworks and the Supreme National Security Council’s approval for the agreement with the IAEA, ultra-hardliners are using media campaigns to try to disrupt the decision-making process,” independent news outlet Rouydad24 wrote.

Supremo stamp sought

“Araghchi claims he has authorization from the Supreme National Security Council to negotiate (with the IAEA) … and (claims) that the council’s decisions are also endorsed by the Supreme Leader,” hardline MP Ahmad Bakhshayesh, a staunch critic of the IAEA deal and the 2015 nuclear agreement, told Rouydad24.

Mojtaba Zarei, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted on X that Araghchi “has acted fully within the country’s legal and strategic framework, and never unilaterally.”

His negotiations, Zarei added, have followed the Supreme Leader’s policies, the Supreme National Security Council’s guidance and recent parliamentary laws, without exceeding his authority or granting IAEA inspectors unrestricted access.

NPT in the crosshairs

Ultra-hardliner lawmakers, having recently passed a high-priority bill that could lead to Iran’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and halting cooperation with the IAEA, continue to challenge the agreement.

Hamid Rasaei, an ultra-hardliner lawmaker, insisted in a video posted on X that contrary to what Araghchi told lawmakers, the deal could not block the reimposition of UN sanctions under the snapback mechanism.

“If this agreement bypasses the law, involves violations, or represents a deviation, we will uphold and defend the law,” another ultra-hardliner lawmaker, Eshareh Azizi, threatened.

Ultra-hardliners also say the agreement risks exposing sensitive nuclear sites.

“Technical agreements with the IAEA could be used as a cover for intelligence gathering, preparing the ground for a new attack on Iran, and creating a legal-political framework to increase sanctions pressure,” Kayhan newspaper funded by the Supreme Leader’s office alleged in an editorial on Monday titled “Europe Will Not Lift Sanctions, Don’t Be Deceived by the IAEA”.

The editorial suggested that leaving the NPT “remains one of the (most) viable options to change the game in Iran’s favor.”

IRGC outlet defends the deal

But a commentary by Basirat, an outlet affiliated with the IRGC’s political bureau, described the Cairo agreement as “a vital achievement in managing the nuclear file at its most sensitive juncture” and “a success.”

“The agreement prevented a new resolution against Iran and created breathing space for continued negotiations,” the commentary titled “Cairo Deal: Redefining Iran's Relations with IAEA” asserted.

Noting that the agreement distinguishes targeted nuclear facilities from others, allowing Iran to manage oversight and safeguard security concerns, it concluded that the deal can be seen as “a valuable opportunity to reduce tensions and return to the path of dialogue.”

The signatories warn that current policies only embolden Tehran, which they describe as a menace to foreign powers and its people alike which survives solely through violence.

“The people of Iran have shed blood and stood firm. Now it is time for the international community to act for its own security. The struggle of the Iranian nation will be remembered in history as a sacrifice not only for freedom but also for the security of the world,” the letter states.

Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian woman, died in September 2022 after being arrested by Iran’s so-called morality police.

Her death sparked widespread outrage and ignited the Women, Life, Freedom protest movement which was quashed with deadly force.

In their letter, the families and victims demanded governments formally designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, cut diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran, and impose sanctions on the IRGC’s financial, military and cyber networks.

"The people of Iran have shed blood and stood firm. Now it is time for the international community to act for its own security. The struggle of the Iranian nation will be remembered in history as a sacrifice not only for freedom but also for the security of the world," it read.

The families portray the Islamic Republic as weakened at home and increasingly isolated abroad. They point to the twelve-day war in June, during which the United States and Israel jointly struck nuclear sites and targeted senior IRGC officials, as a punishing blow.

Meanwhile, Iran’s economy continues to collapse. The rial has lost more than 90 percent of its value since US President Donald Trump imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions in 2018.

Coupled with widespread drought, empty taps and persistent electricity shortages, the instability is fueling fears of mass migration that could destabilize neighboring countries already struggling with refugee challenges.

The letter is signed by more than 100 victims and families of those killed or injured during nationwide uprisings in 2017, 2019, and 2022.

Among the public signatories are the families of people killed during the 2022 protests including Majid Kazemi, Mino Majidi, Pouya Bakhtiari and Aida Rostami, along with dozens of survivors who suffered severe injuries.

While the Yemeni militia is launching almost daily drone attacks on Israel, its missile attacks have ebbed as the group struggles to get key supplies from Tehran.

It has recently turned to using Iranian cluster bombs in a bid to make the ballistic missiles more effective while using less missiles as air attacks with drones continue.

“The Houthis possess large quantities of drones and missiles of various types, but they realize that the conflict could drag on for many years," Yemen-based military expert Rashid Maalouf told Iran International. "Therefore, they avoid using these weapons extensively on a daily basis to preserve their strategic stockpile from depletion.”

He said successful interceptions by coastal forces loyal to Yemen's internationally-recognized government have impacted supplies to the group which controls most of the country's population centers since a civil war broke out in 2014.

“Although the Houthis already possess a large stockpile, they are careful to ration it, not because of the immediate shortage, but rather to ensure its long-term sustainability in anticipation of a prolonged conflict.”

On September 4, the Israeli military said it had intercepted five UAVs and two surface-to-surface missiles launched from Yemen.

“In recent months, as part of the cooperation between the Air Force arrays, dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles and surface-to-surface missiles launched from Yemen were successfully intercepted," the statement said.

A day later, Israel announced it had assassinated 12 senior officials from the group who had been gathered together at a meeting in Sanaa.

“The Houthi terrorist regime serves as a central proxy of the Iranian regime, which provides it with funding and weapons for terror activities against the State of Israel and other countries,” the statement said following the airstrike which killed officials including Prime Minister Ahmad Al-Rahawi and other ministers.

Israeli strikes on the Yemeni capital Sanaa and Houthi-held north on Wednesday which in part targeted military and government news outlets supporting the group killed 35 people according to the health ministry and landed on the outskirts of the ancient old city.

On Friday, the Israeli military said 10 Houthi drones had been downed in the previous week. In the early hours of Saturday morning, a Houthi missile was intercepted.

Shortly after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, the Houthis announced they would interdict shipping off Yemeni waters in solidarity with Palestine.

Despite frequent Houthi attacks on Israel for much of the last two years, most missiles and drones have been intercepted by air defense systems.

Notable lapses came in the form of a Houthi drone attack which killed an Israeli man in Tel Aviv last year and a missile attack which struck outside Israel's busiest airport in May.

In response, Israeli air attacks have killed scores of people, destroyed Yemen's civilian air fleet and targeted ports and energy infrastructure.

Still importing

Former Israeli military intelligence chief Danny Citronowicz told Iran International that the Houthis are facing logistical challenges to manufacture weapons, seen by the focus on drone attacks.

While drones are mostly made domestically, he said, the group still relies on Iranian equipment such as the GPS capabilities.

“The Houthis are still importing weapons from Iran,” Citronowicz added. “They don’t have the ability to manufacture missiles so they’re getting them smuggled from Iran in pieces and putting them together."

“When the US stops the ships [smuggling parts] we see the capabilities they have, but the Houthis need the Iranians still,” added Citronowicz, who said that senior Quds Force commander Abdul Reza Shahla’i is on the ground coordinating the group in Yemen.

Under sanctions, the US has offered a $15m reward for information on his financial activities, networks and associates.

“The Houthis will find it very hard to sustain this ability to launch missiles without getting them from Iran. The ability to manufacture them in Yemen is very hard. They need the components from Iran," he said.

The more complex, the more Iranian

The Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations think tank said in a report that the Iran connection provides more sophisticated weaponry than the group could acquire on their own for both missiles and drones.

“Iranian support has bolstered the group’s fighting abilities, helping the Houthis gain and maintain military superiority within Yemen," it wrote in March.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have targeted over 100 international merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sunk two ships, seized one vessel and killed at least eight seamen.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the US think tank the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Iran International that while the Houthis have local production capabilities, the more complex the projectile, the more likely the Houthis are to remain reliant on whole systems or component parts from Tehran.

"But the cheaper the platform, like drones, the more likely they will be able to develop systems with Iranian guidance in country," he said.

"Marrying that assumption with past US and Israeli strikes against Houthi missile launch, production, and storage sites, it’s apparent that both for strategic and cost purposes the terror group would transition to more drone than ballistic missiles strikes."

“On the third anniversary of her savage murder, we honor the memory of Mahsa Zhina Amini, whose young life was cut short by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Thomas “Tommy” Pigott, principal deputy spokesperson at US State Department said in a statement on Monday.

“Her murder, along with so many others, is a damning indictment of the Islamic Republic’s crimes against humanity. The United States will continue to work with allies and partners around the world to ensure that the regime’s atrocities are met with accountability, justice, and resolve,” Pigott added.

Amini, 22, died on September 16, 2022, after being detained by Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating mandatory hijab rules. Her death sparked months of protests dubbed Woman Life Freedom uprising during which at least 551 protesters, including 68 children, were killed, according to rights groups, and thousands detained.

Iran has executed 12 detainees linked to the 2022 protests, with eight others sentenced to death and awaiting execution, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Pigott accused Iran of ruling “through torture and execution,” neglecting its own people while funding regional militias.

“The United States stands with the people of Iran in their calls for dignity and a better life. We will continue to apply maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic, ensuring it is held accountable for actions against its people and against its neighbors,” Pigott said.

"It is now time to implement the agreement ... A return of IAEA inspectors and the resumption of safeguards implementation in Iran would serve as a good sign that agreements and understandings are possible," Grossi said at the IAEA General Conference in Vienna on Monday.

Grossi's remarks come a week after Iran and the IAEA signed a new agreement in Cairo on the practical modalities to resume inspection activities in Iran. He described the new arrangement as a framework to resume technical work and rebuild trust.

“Now it’s up to us together, Iran and the agency to implement it, restore confidence, and move forward,” he said.

The deal appeared to break an impasse between the UN nuclear watchdog and Tehran after the latter refused to let inspectors resume their work following surprise US and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June.

But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared to swiftly add a note of caution following its inking, saying details and restored relations must yet be explored.

Peace in peril

Grossi said that when the agency can fully carry out its mandate and answer all outstanding questions, “there will be no doubt and peace is guaranteed.”

“When that ability is compromised or limited, or when we cannot do what we are supposed to do, then international peace and security are indeed at risk,” Grossi added.

Grossi warned that history had shown the dangers of restricting the agency’s work, saying, “We have seen this throughout history, particularly though not only in the Middle East, and dramatically last June in Iran."

Israel launched a surprise military campaign on June 13 targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, including senior commanders and nuclear officials in a conflict that lasted 12 days.

On June 22, the United States joined the campaign, striking nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Washington brokered a ceasefire on June 24.

In response, Iran’s parliament passed legislation suspending all cooperation with the IAEA, but international pressure has grown for Tehran to restore ties with the agency.

Last month, France, Germany and the United Kingdom triggered the UN snapback sanctions mechanism, leaving a 30-day window for diplomacy before sanctions are due to take effect on October 18.

One of the demands of the three European countries is the immediate resumption of full work between Iran and IAEA.

However, ultraconservative lawmaker Hamid Rasaee said Sunday that the deal with the IAEA contains no clause preventing the reimposition of UN sanctions on Tehran under the snapback mechanism.