Firsthand reports from contributors inside Iran
This week marked the anniversary of a vast Berlin rally in October 2022 gathering tens of thousands filled in solidarity with Iran’s Woman, Life, Freedom protest movement—a day that now feels almost impossibly distant.
The chants of that autumn have given way to vindictive attacks online and heated but more cordial arguments in living rooms, where friends and families debate what should come next as if the Islamic Republic had already fallen—or as if anyone truly knew how, or when, it could.
It was meant to be a relaxed family gathering: tea glasses on the table, satellite television murmuring in the background, the usual jokes about officials and inflation. Then images appeared on the screen: young women waving pre-revolutionary flags in Berlin.
The room fell quiet. Auntie Nahid sighed.
Uncle Saeed, Nahid’s brother, mimicked her sigh. “You still don’t get it, do you?” he said. “You really think such protests could lead anywhere without a leader?”
That was all it took.
Nahid—my mother’s sister—had been a leftist before and after the 1979 revolution, a university activist who opposed the monarchy but refused to board the Islamic bandwagon. Decades later, she still rejects the idea of restoring either.
Saeed, once a quiet junior employee at the trade ministry, had joined the wave of early believers in Khomeini’s revolution. For a year or two he called it sacred. Now, in his early seventies, he’s our family’s most ardent supporter of the fallen Shah and his exiled son, Reza Pahlavi.
“You’re being as ridiculous as you were forty-five years ago,” Nahid snapped. “Then you kept asking ‘Do you believe in Khomeini or not?’ You wanted allegiance then, you want allegiance now.”
“I don’t want allegiance,” Saeed replied, his voice rising. “I just say let’s rally behind Pahlavi, because he’s the only alternative. You’re being as evasive as you were back then. If it’s between Pahlavi and the Islamic Republic, which one do you choose?”
“I won’t go along with your false binary,” Nahid said. “We must try to bring about real change, something that’s neither this nor the past.”
Saeed shook his head. “That’s just nice words. Reality is he’s the only one with a chance of bringing them down. He’s got international support, which is necessary in this ruined land. You may not like it, but it’s always been like this. Big powers decide who comes and who goes—or at least they have to be okay with it, or nothing happens.”
“That support,” Nahid replied, “is exactly why I don’t like it. It’s 2025, for heaven’s sake, not 1925. We should at least aspire to do better than that.”
“There, that’s your problem,” he said with a bitter smile. “You’re idealistic. And your idealism keeps us from getting rid of this regime.”
Nahid shook her head so fiercely you feared her neck would crack.
“You’re being ridiculous again,” she shouted. “Who’s this ‘us’? And how am I stopping it? Take to the streets and I’ll be the first to back you. But where’s the organization? Where’s the call to action? If any group were really an alternative and thought it stood a chance, they wouldn’t waste their time arguing with others. They’d just take over and deal with obstacles like me later.”
“All I’m saying,” Saeed muttered, clearly trying not to aggravate his younger sister further, “is we should gather around one figure and give it a go. Otherwise we’ll be stuck with this bunch forever.”
Nahid turned toward him, voice softer but no less bitter. “You loved getting behind one figure back then, and we know how that ended. You followed me two blocks on the way to protest the compulsory hijab in March 1979 to dissuade me, because it would ‘harm the revolution,’ remember?”
The room went still. My father, sensing where it was headed, stepped in: “Could you not ruin the night for the hundredth time? To hell with them all.”
The quarrel dissolved into silence, then small talk. But the argument lingered in the air—one that feels as old as the Islamic Republic itself.
What unfolded that night could have taken place in any number of Iranian households. Families that once shared the same dreams now sit on opposite sides of the country’s unhealed divide.
Some who once chanted for revolution now argue for reform. Many who once preached patience now want collapse—foreign intervention even.
What separates people like Nahid and Saeed is not only ideology but the shape of their disillusionment. Both, in their own ways, are haunted by the 1979 choices that promised liberation and delivered repression.
As the evening wore on, the conversation drifted back to the mundane: rising prices, the neighbor’s noisy parties—and of course, the leaked wedding video of Shamkhani’s daughter.
On the muted television the images from Berlin looped once more—a bright moment fading into memory as we quarrel over who should bring down a theocracy that shows no sign of budging.
Ahmad Moghadasi, chairman of Iran’s Cattle Farmers Association, told state media that provinces including Tehran, Alborz, Qazvin, Qom, and Markazi have reported widespread infections, including among vaccinated herds.
“Even herds that were immunized have been struggling for over three weeks without recovery,” he said, blaming the introduction of a new SAT1 African strain of the virus.
He warned that the epidemic, coupled with the near-total halt of government feed distribution, has left dairy farms facing critical shortages.
“No feed is available in the agriculture ministry’s online system,” Moghadasi said. “Farmers are forced to buy on the open market, where corn costs 360,000 rials (about 33 USD cents) per kilo and soybean meal 400,000 rials (about 37 cents) -- double official rates.”
The government had set a purchase price of 230,000 rials (about 21 cents) per kilo for raw milk, based on subsidized feed costs, but the official system has failed to deliver supplies, Moghadasi added. “The government has not met its commitment, so input prices and milk prices are both rising,” he said.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a highly contagious viral infection affecting cloven-hoofed animals, has been reported in 270 locations nationwide, according to Iran’s Veterinary Organization.
Its head, Alireza Rafieipour, said more than 36 million animals have been vaccinated this year, adding that the situation remains under control with intensified quarantine and disinfection measures.
Industry groups, however, warn that recurring outbreaks and rising production costs are exacerbating Iran’s dairy crisis.
Domestic milk output and consumption have both declined amid inflation and poverty, with the Health Ministry reporting this month that per capita dairy intake has dropped to less than half the recommended level.
Officials blame soaring prices, reduced subsidies, and the lingering impact of US and UN sanctions on feed and veterinary imports.
The Agriculture Ministry has promised to stabilize supplies and maintain sufficient vaccine stocks, but farmers say they face mounting financial strain. “We are witnessing conditions similar to 2012 and 2018, when sanctions caused widespread drug and feed shortages,” according to Moghadasi.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Iran’s per capita dairy consumption fell from 101 kilograms in 2010 to 70 kilograms in 2023, less than half the global average, reflecting a deepening food security crisis as inflation erodes purchasing power.
The accounts of Mandana Akbarzadeh, Azadeh Kebriya, Zeinab Berimani, and Fatereh Hamidi have been taken offline, displaying a message that reads: “This page has been blocked due to the production of criminal content."
The message displayed in the closed pages also says: "Warning: Users’ criminal activities are being monitored.”
The crackdown comes as part of a broader effort to limit the visibility of women vocalists, whose performances have been banned in public settings since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The Islamic Republic has banned women from singing or dancing in public and enforces the Islamic veil or hijab on women.
Despite the official ban, female singers in Iran continue to find ways to share their music—whether in private gatherings, underground performances, or online.
One such artist, Zara Esmaeili, gained widespread attention last year when a video of her singing Amy Winehouse’s Back to Black went viral. However, shortly after the video gained traction in July, Esmaeili was arrested on August 1.
The restrictions on female artists have escalated since the protests following Mahsa Amini’s death in custody in 2022 over hijab, as many female performers supported the demonstrations. Several have been arrested or barred from professional activities.
Artistic defiance has become a hallmark of Iran’s protest movements, with musicians such as Shervin Hajipour, Mehdi Yarrahi, Saman Yasin, and Toomaj Salehi facing arrest for their roles in mobilizing dissent.
The June conflict was capped off on June 22 with US strikes on major nuclear sites, marking the superpower's first direct assault on Iranian territory after decades of proxy conflicts.
Tehran's lack of any meaningful retaliation, Yaphe said, laid bare how exposed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei was and how a security apparatus he had built up for decades had failed to perform.
"It’s very hard to see how Iran regains legitimacy,” said Yaphe, who worked as a Middle East analyst for the State Department for 15 years.
“These are the people who crafted the narratives of the ‘resistance economy’ and other doctrines supporting Khamenei’s agenda,” he added. “That generation is retiring, dying off, or leaving leadership roles, with no coherent transition plan for what comes next.”
Iran’s central challenge, he said, is generational. The revolutionary cadre from the 1979 Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War built key institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij domestic militia and economic conglomerates which dominate large sectors of the economy.
Memory of pre-1979 grievances such rural inequality under the Shah as well as torture and killings by his security agencies, Yaphe says, lingers strongly for the superannuated ruling cadres.
These authorities remain committed to anti-Western confrontation and nuclear advancement, viewing compromise as weakness, according to Yaphe.
“The government in Iran has chosen to die on a particular hill, and they’re going to die there slowly, in their sleep,” he said. “It’s going to be a very slow, mundane transition, the outcome is likely gradual change rather than abrupt upheaval.”
Even the most apparently reactionary institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could theoretically play a role in a transition.
"In the event of a change in power, there’s no future for the Guards as they exist today,” he said. “Internally, the IRGC could pursue a coup or maintain clerical oversight to preserve influence—they’ll have to weigh costs and benefits.”
Across the region, Yaphe said Islamist movements are declining, citing sidelined groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and weakened Iranian proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
‘Next move happens soon’
Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and the 2020 US assassination of senior IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani were major turning points, Yaphe said.
“Actions under Trump advanced these trends. The Soleimani strike disproved fears of escalation, direct measures disrupted Iran’s comfort with covert operations dating back to its 1982 interventions in Lebanon," he said, referring to the IRGC's founding of its powerful Lebanese affiliate Hezbollah.
“Iran prefers operating in the shadows,” Yaphe added. “Israel and the US responded forcefully, degrading proxies - probably the most effective approach.”
He criticized Washington’s traditional Iran policy as overly partisan: negotiation-driven on the left, confrontational on the right, but often lacking depth.
The analyst contrasted this with Trump’s approach, which, he said, prioritized results over ideology.
“President Trump has specified acceptable terms,” Yaphe said. “Tehran, still trapped in 1979-era thinking, doesn’t grasp the shift toward pragmatic power dynamics. They don’t seem to understand that the West will act.”
“In the next three to five years, something significant will happen in Iran,” Yaphe said. “Either way, it won’t remain the Islamic Republic we know today.”