Iran International
Punishing Israeli attacks over the summer exposed Tehran’s deep vulnerabilities, former State Department analyst Joshua Yaphe told Iran International, underscoring the nigh demise of a ruling generation whose outlook is stuck in a distant past.
The June conflict was capped off on June 22 with US strikes on major nuclear sites, marking the superpower's first direct assault on Iranian territory after decades of proxy conflicts.
Tehran's lack of any meaningful retaliation, Yaphe said, laid bare how exposed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei was and how a security apparatus he had built up for decades had failed to perform.
"It’s very hard to see how Iran regains legitimacy,” said Yaphe, who worked as a Middle East analyst for the State Department for 15 years.
“These are the people who crafted the narratives of the ‘resistance economy’ and other doctrines supporting Khamenei’s agenda,” he added. “That generation is retiring, dying off, or leaving leadership roles, with no coherent transition plan for what comes next.”
Iran’s central challenge, he said, is generational. The revolutionary cadre from the 1979 Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War built key institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij domestic militia and economic conglomerates which dominate large sectors of the economy.
Memory of pre-1979 grievances such rural inequality under the Shah as well as torture and killings by his security agencies, Yaphe says, lingers strongly for the superannuated ruling cadres.
These authorities remain committed to anti-Western confrontation and nuclear advancement, viewing compromise as weakness, according to Yaphe.
“The government in Iran has chosen to die on a particular hill, and they’re going to die there slowly, in their sleep,” he said. “It’s going to be a very slow, mundane transition, the outcome is likely gradual change rather than abrupt upheaval.”
Even the most apparently reactionary institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could theoretically play a role in a transition.
"In the event of a change in power, there’s no future for the Guards as they exist today,” he said. “Internally, the IRGC could pursue a coup or maintain clerical oversight to preserve influence—they’ll have to weigh costs and benefits.”
Across the region, Yaphe said Islamist movements are declining, citing sidelined groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and weakened Iranian proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
‘Next move happens soon’
Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and the 2020 US assassination of senior IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani were major turning points, Yaphe said.
“Actions under Trump advanced these trends. The Soleimani strike disproved fears of escalation, direct measures disrupted Iran’s comfort with covert operations dating back to its 1982 interventions in Lebanon," he said, referring to the IRGC's founding of its powerful Lebanese affiliate Hezbollah.
“Iran prefers operating in the shadows,” Yaphe added. “Israel and the US responded forcefully, degrading proxies - probably the most effective approach.”
He criticized Washington’s traditional Iran policy as overly partisan: negotiation-driven on the left, confrontational on the right, but often lacking depth.
The analyst contrasted this with Trump’s approach, which, he said, prioritized results over ideology.
“President Trump has specified acceptable terms,” Yaphe said. “Tehran, still trapped in 1979-era thinking, doesn’t grasp the shift toward pragmatic power dynamics. They don’t seem to understand that the West will act.”
“In the next three to five years, something significant will happen in Iran,” Yaphe said. “Either way, it won’t remain the Islamic Republic we know today.”
Alcohol accounted for about five percent of all poisoning fatalities in the first five months of the current Iranian year, identifying illicitly produced drinks as the main source, said the Organization. It recorded 4,232 deaths from various types of poisoning during the period and noted a slight decline in alcohol-related fatalities compared with last year, when they made up six percent of the total.
Alcohol intoxication, according to hospital data, accounted for ten percent of poisoning-related admissions last year, falling to 8.5 percent in the first half of this year. Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raeisi said on October 11 that the actual number of alcohol poisoning cases was likely “ten times higher than those reaching emergency units.”
Alcohol ban and black market trade
The sale and consumption of alcohol have been banned in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with production, purchase, or use punishable by imprisonment, flogging, or fines. Repeat offenders can face the death penalty.
Despite strict penalties, demand for alcohol has persisted, driving a widespread underground market. Bootleg drinks, often made with toxic industrial methanol, continue to claim lives each year across the country.
Public health experts warn that the recurring poisonings underscore a growing social divide between state restrictions and personal behavior. Many Iranians view the persistence of black-market alcohol as evidence of resistance to religious regulation over private life.
The deaths caused by bootleg alcohol, the Legal Medicine Organization said, remain preventable through public education, early medical response, and stronger oversight of illegal production and distribution networks.
Maleki said that airstrikes had harmed parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but that “work is ongoing” and would not be halted. “Nuclear science has become part of the daily life of our people,” he said.
His comments followed remarks by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, who said earlier this week that Iran’s technical expertise had survived the 12-day war in June, when US and Israeli airstrikes caused severe damage to key nuclear sites in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow. Grossi told Le Temps newspaper that Iran now holds enough enriched uranium for ten nuclear weapons if it chose to enrich further, but added there was no evidence Tehran seeks to build one.
He also said Iran had not withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and that diplomacy should prevail to prevent renewed confrontation.
Maleki said Iran would continue its program “regardless of outside rhetoric” and that there was “no reason to abandon it.”
Renewed friction over IAEA oversight
The lawmaker’s remarks came amid rising tension between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency after Iran, Russia and China urged an end to the agency’s monitoring and reporting tied to the 2015 nuclear deal, following the expiry of the UN resolution that endorsed it.
In a joint letter sent on Friday, the three countries told Grossi that Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), formally expired on October 18. They asserted that with its termination, the IAEA’s reporting mandate under the resolution “has come to an end.”
Western governments reject that position, insisting that the agency’s verification work remains vital as long as Iran stays bound by the NPT and its safeguards obligations.
Grossi has said the IAEA continues to monitor developments and that cooperation between Iran and the agency is essential to avoid escalation.
The call came after remarks earlier this week by government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, who said “hijab cannot be restored to society by force” and that social values should be strengthened through cultural engagement rather than coercion.
“The enemy pretending to care about our women only dreams of removing their headscarves and seeing them naked, with no concern for their real needs,” Kayhan wrote.
The hardline paper argued that the establishment of the Islamic Revolution had “dispelled the illusion that unveiling represents progress or that hijab hinders development and talent.”
The paper portrayed unveiled women as targets of foreign plots and accused senior officials of “passivity and lack of cultural planning.” It said government institutions had failed to act decisively against the promotion of indecency by celebrities and online platforms.
“Purposeful norm-breaking now requires deterrent measures against those leading and promoting it,” the commentary said. “If Iranian women were properly informed, many would consciously choose the Islamic-Iranian lifestyle over Western models.”
It urged cultural bodies to include pro-hijab themes in school curricula, films, and television dramas.
Cultural pressure meets official restraint
Kayhan’s remarks came as Tehran’s Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice headquarters announced plans to deploy 80,000 volunteers to monitor hijab compliance across the capital.
Since the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of morality police, widespread defiance of hijab laws has persisted, turning daily appearances of unveiled women in major cities into a visible act of civil disobedience despite recurring enforcement campaigns.
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said the three countries sent a joint letter to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi arguing that Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), formally expired on Oct. 18.
He said the letter followed a previous joint message the countries had sent to the UN secretary-general and the president of the Security Council, declaring the resolution terminated. “All provisions of Resolution 2231 have now lapsed, and attempts by European countries to reactivate sanctions through the so-called snapback mechanism are illegal and without effect,” Gharibabadi said, according to state media.
In their letter, the ambassadors of Iran, Russia and China wrote: “With this termination, the reporting mandate of the Director General of the IAEA concerning verification and monitoring under Security Council Resolution 2231 has come to an end.” The letter added that the IAEA Board of Governors’ decision of Dec. 15, 2015, which authorized verification and monitoring for up to 10 years or until the agency issued a broader conclusion on Iran’s nuclear program, whichever came first, “remains valid and constitutes the sole guidance which the IAEA Secretariat is obliged to follow.”
According to the three governments, “as of 18 October 2025, this matter will be automatically removed from the Board of Governors’ agenda, and no further action will be required in this context.”
Iran, Russia and China have maintained that the resolution’s expiry removes Iran’s nuclear file from the Security Council’s agenda and ends the IAEA’s mandate tied to it.
Grossi urges diplomacy, notes Iran stays in NPT
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said earlier this week that diplomacy must prevail to avoid renewed conflict and noted that Iran had not withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty despite tensions. He said continued cooperation between Iran and the agency was vital to prevent escalation.
Grossi told Le Temps newspaper on Wednesday that Iran holds enough uranium to build ten nuclear weapons if it enriched further, though there is no evidence it seeks to do so. He said Israeli and US airstrikes in June had caused “severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow, but that the country’s technical know-how “has not vanished.”
Tehran and the IAEA have yet to agree on a framework to resume full inspections at the bombed sites. Grossi said Tehran was allowing inspectors access “in dribs and drabs” for security reasons, adding that efforts were continuing to rebuild trust and restore routine monitoring.