Israel says 2024 attacks on Iran paved way for June conflict

The State Attorney’s Office filed the indictment on Sunday at the Nazareth District Court against Rahman Gokayer, Younes Ozel, and Oktay Asci, accusing them of illegal entry, weapons trafficking, and ties to foreign arms dealers. Asci also faces a charge of aiding terrorist activities.

Gokayer and Asci traveled from Turkey to Saudi Arabia and then to Jordan in September 2025, where they agreed to infiltrate Israel and smuggle three handguns supplied by Iranian intermediaries, according to the indictment.

The plan was later abandoned after internal disagreements, but the two crossed illegally near Kibbutz Shaar HaGolan.

Asci had previously lived in Israel without a permit for more than two years before being deported in July 2025. During that period, prosecutors say, he obtained a firearm in Bat Yam, buried it near his apartment, and later handed it to an unidentified individual.

After his deportation, Asci maintained contact with Gokayer and Iranian brokers through Turkish intermediaries, planning to route guns from Iran to Jordan and into Israel via Palestinian laborers. Gokayer’s role was to collect the weapons, transfer them to others, and manage the proceeds, for a promised payment of one million dollars.

“The plan was to transport the guns to Jordan and smuggle them into Israel using workers crossing the border. Gokair was supposed to receive the guns and transfer them to other parties and collect the money from the transactions. For his role in the smuggling network, Gokair was promised a payment of $1 million,” reads the indictment.

Ozel, already in Israel, was told to complete a weapons deal in Tel Aviv but twice left empty-handed. Prosecutors say he kept 5,000 shekels from the funds meant for the transaction. All three men remain in custody.

Iranian smuggling networks foiled

Earlier this month, Israel’s Shin Bet security agency said it had thwarted a major Iranian attempt to move a cache of advanced weapons into the West Bank for planned attacks. The haul included explosive devices, drones, anti-tank weapons, grenades, rifles, and ammunition.

Shin Bet traced the operation to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, involving Unit 400 under Javad Ghafari and Unit 18840 in Syria, which reports to Asghar Bakri, head of the covert Unit 840. Two IRGC operatives killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon in July -- Salah al-Husseini and Muhammad Shuayb -- were also involved.

Iran is pursuing a broader strategy to arm groups in the West Bank to attack Israeli civilians and forces, the agency said.

In March 2024, Shin Bet and the Israel Defense Forces intercepted another Iranian arms shipment that included grenade launchers, explosives, mines, and assault rifles.

“Iran received assistance from Libya and North Korea in the field of missile technology, but not from the Russians,” Mohammad-Ali Jafari said in an online interview posted on YouTube on Saturday.

During the early post-revolutionary years, he added, Iran was permitted to reverse-engineer certain systems and exchange limited technical information with Tripoli and Pyongyang.

“The Russians offered no real help,” he said. “On the contrary, they are now the ones who need our missiles and drones.”

Iranian-designed drones have been key to Russia's war effort against Ukraine, even though Tehran denies providing Moscow with such weapons.

However, Moscow provided little, if any, support during Iran's brief summer war with Israel.

The two countries have signed a long-term security framework, but Russia’s restraint underscores the limits of its backing.

Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said his country was "engaged in supplying the equipment that the Islamic Republic of Iran needs" even after UN sanctions were reimposed last month.

‘Russia now seeking Iranian technology’

Iran has "never relied on Russia for our [military] capabilities, they are the ones who need our missiles and drones," Jafari said in his online interview, adding that Moscow’s reliance on Iranian systems underscores how the balance of capability has shifted.

Jafari dismissed the notion that Moscow’s technology exceeds Tehran’s, arguing that Iran’s advancements in precision and guidance systems outpace those of Russia.

“It’s unlikely that the Russians possess the pinpoint accuracy our missiles have. In terms of precision and technology, we are different from them,” he said.

Iran’s strength lies in domestically developed systems, the former IRGC chief said, describing the country’s missile and drone capabilities as products of “decades of indigenous effort.”

“Foreign input had been useful in the early stages but our engineers quickly surpassed the models we studied.”

Iran, Jafari said, had been preparing for potential conflict with Israel since the 1990s, which guided the decision to focus on missile and drone forces over fighter jets.

“At that time, it was decided that the army’s air force would concentrate on aircraft and defense, while the IRGC would handle the aerospace, missile, and drone sectors.”

The decision, he noted, stemmed from both cost and survivability concerns, given the technological gap with Western powers.

Earlier this month, leaked Russian defense documents indicated Iran had signed a €6 billion deal to buy 48 Su-35 fighter jets from Moscow, with deliveries expected between 2026 and 2028.

Last month, an Iranian lawmaker said Russian MiG-29 fighter jets had arrived in Iran as part of a short-term plan to bolster its air force, with more advanced Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft to follow gradually.

Iran has long sought to modernize its aging air force, which relies heavily on US-made jets purchased before the 1979 revolution and a small number of Russian and locally upgraded aircraft.

Western analysts say Iran’s request for 50 aircraft remains only partly fulfilled, with deliveries slowed by Russia’s own needs in Ukraine.

Tehran also faces vulnerability in air defenses after Israeli strikes earlier this year destroyed its last Russian-provided S-300 systems. Iran had acquired the four S-300 battalions from Russia in 2016.

Iran’s current level of preparedness surpasses that seen before the 12-day war, Araghchi said in an interview published on Friday with US-based journalist Dariush Sajjadi.

“Being ready does not mean expecting war,” he said. “If you are ready to fight, no one dares to attack. I am confident the previous experience will not be repeated, and any mistake will meet the same response.”

The United States held five rounds of talks with Tehran earlier this year over its disputed nuclear program, under a 60-day ultimatum set by President Donald Trump.

When no deal was reached by the 61st day, June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign, culminating in US strikes on June 22 targeting key nuclear sites in Esfahan, Natanz, and Fordow.

While the 12-day war ended on June 24 following a US-brokered truce, global concerns over Tehran’s nuclear program grew even more complicated as 400 kilograms of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains missing.

Tehran says the material was buried under rubble from US and Israeli airstrikes and is inaccessible but has yet to allow international inspectors access to the damaged facilities.

No nuclear weapon

Araghchi dismissed international concerns about Iran's possible pursuit of a nuclear weapon, saying the country's nuclear program is “completely peaceful and legally grounded,” citing a religious decree forbidding nuclear weapons.

“Our nuclear doctrine does not include nuclear arms,” he said. “We pursue enrichment because it is our right, not because we seek a bomb. Our atomic bomb is the power to say no.”

While Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon, the UN's nuclear watchdog argues that enrichment to high levels of purity lacks any civilian justification.

In 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA), calling it flawed and too lenient. He then launched a maximum pressure campaign, reimposing harsh sanctions to cripple Iran’s economy and force broader concessions on its nuclear and regional activities. After his reelection, Trump intensified the same strategy.

Relations with the United States

On ties with Washington, Araghchi said the main obstacle lies in what he called America’s “hegemonic character.”

“As long as the United States behaves with domination and Iran refuses to submit, this problem will persist,” he said. “But it can be managed—we do not have to pay every price.”

He cited repeated failed negotiations as evidence of mistrust. “We negotiated, reached agreements, and fulfilled them, yet each time the US broke its word,” he said.

"In New York (during the UN General Assembly in September), there was an opportunity for talks, but they made completely unreasonable and illogical demands — for instance, that we hand over all our enriched material to them in exchange for a six-month extension of the snapback. What sane person would accept that? It has nothing to do with Iran at all."

Araghchi said "there is no basis for trust, though diplomacy is never abandoned. If the US is ready to talk, with honesty and mutual respect, Iran is prepared for a rational and balanced agreement.”

Iran will not yield its rights or tolerate coercion but remains open to any reasonable and fair solution that preserves national dignity, he concluded.

“The Middle East is at an inflection point,” Oren said. “Iran feels cornered, and that’s when nations become most dangerous.”

Oren said Tehran does not believe it was defeated in the last conflict and may now see little to lose by reigniting hostilities.

“Toward the end of the war, the percentage of interceptions went down,” he recalled. “The Shahab rockets didn’t take down a room; they took down a neighborhood. I don’t know how many nights we could have gone on.”

He said Iran’s ability to adapt under fire—learning Israel’s missile defense systems in real time—was one reason Israel accepted a ceasefire sooner than expected.

“They were learning how to get through our umbrella,” Oren said. “They were causing us some very severe damage.”

Redefining the Middle East

The former envoy said the aftermath of the conflict has already begun reshaping the region. The Six-Day War of 1967 saw Israel capture vast territory and redraw the Middle East map. Oren, who has written extensively about that war, said the current transformation could be even more consequential.

“The Middle East has been transformed in ways more far-reaching than even the changes after the Six-Day War,” he said.

Oren pointed to Iran’s growing isolation and new alignments forming around Israel. He said some governments that publicly criticized Israel during the fighting are now quietly engaging with it, drawn by shared concerns about Tehran’s role in the region.

“Peace in the Middle East is made through strength,” he said. “Soft power alone has never worked.”

Iran's nuclear file and new fault lines

Oren’s comments come amid renewed tension over Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran, backed by Moscow and Beijing, has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that European efforts to reimpose sanctions are illegitimate, arguing that UN Resolution 2231 has expired.

In Jerusalem earlier this week, US Vice President JD Vance said Washington will continue to pursue diplomacy to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.

“President Trump actually wants Iran to be prosperous,” Vance said, “but they cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

According to the IAEA, Iran holds about 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent—enough for roughly ten bombs if refined further—but there is no evidence Tehran intends to build one. Agency chief Rafael Grossi has warned, however, that if diplomacy fails, “a renewed resort to force cannot be ruled out.”

Inside Iran, Friday sermons reflected a defiant tone. Senior clerics denounced Washington and praised what they called the country’s resilience. Ahmad Khatami vowed to “break the horn of this wild bull,” while Mohammad Saeedi in Qom thanked Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for “crushing the arrogance of the US president.”

Despite speculation that Israel’s prime minister might pursue another strike, Oren said Israel understands the risks. He noted that the previous conflict could have been far more costly and that few in Israel want to test those limits again.

“Iran is isolated,” he said. “And it may feel that it has nothing to lose by triggering a second round.”

Still, Oren said he remains cautiously optimistic that the region could ultimately move toward a new equilibrium.

“If cards are played right,” he said, “the Middle East could look unrecognizable in two years.”

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.

“The international community must urge the Iranian regime to give up its false hope of revolution, forego its ambitions toward its neighbors, and stop meddling in the politics of other countries in the region,” Michael Waltz said in a speech at the UN.

“Instead, Iran should engage in direct and good-faith dialogue with the United States for the benefit of the Iranian people and the security of the region,” Waltz added.

Iran's relations with Washington appear to be deteriorating as an impasse over Iran's disputed nuclear program festers and European countries triggered the so-called snapback of international sanctions on Tehran last month.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a speech on Monday that Washington sought to bully Iran by making it concede defense capabilities, appearing to reject a peace overture the previous week by US President Donald Trump.

Speaking on the Gaza peace plan, Waltz praised the Trump administration for its achievement and called for greater pressure on Iran to ensure full implementation.

“Because of tough action against Iranian proxies, we are seeing historic opportunities in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and across the region. In this spirit, the United States supports the reimposition of UN snapback sanctions on the Iranian regime,” he said.

The sanctions have further strained Iran's economy after a punishing 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June.

“The regime will continue to face consequences as long as it remains on its path of destruction,” Waltz said.

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, rejected the remarks, saying Iran’s foreign policy is based on “respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference and good neighborliness,” and that it “has always been ready for fair and genuine dialogue.”

Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and that repeated US accusations were aimed at justifying what it calls its aggression.

Western countries have called for Tehran to engage in renewed diplomacy with Washington and restored access to international nuclear inspectors.