Iran International
The thorny issue of a possible fuel prices hike has taken the centerstage in the debates between supporters of the pro-reform Masoud Pezeshkian and ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili, and among eligible voters.
The duel began Sunday with Jalili supporters claiming on social media that fuel prices would increase several-fold if Pezeshkian wins the runoff elections on July 5, and reach as high as 250,000 rials per liter (around 40 cents).
Currently rationed gasoline is sold at 15,000 rials per liter (2.5 cents). The cost of anything used over the rationed amount (From 25 liters per month for motorcycles and 60 liters for personal cars to 500 liters for ambulances) is 5 US cents per liter.
This heavily subsidized price, coming to less than 10 cents a gallon, is the second cheapest in the world and costs the government tens of billions of dollars per year. Average gasoline prices in the region is closer to $1 per liter.
Jalili’s campaign officials and supporters’ intensive attacks on Pezeshkian’s campaign were followed by a Jalili tweet on Monday. The image posted by Jalili with no comment looked like the map of an Internet Taxi application with Pezeshkian as the taxi’s passenger going to the presidential office. The caption read “Will increase transportation costs” to suggest that Pezeshkian’s government intends to increase fuel prices to 250,000 rials (around 40 cents) per liter.
“Mr. Jalili, I haven’t proposed any plans for increasing gasoline prices but you must say if the price of gasoline will be less than 600,000 rials (nearly $1) after your government implements your ‘The One Plan’,” Pezeshkian’s official X account responded to Jalili shortly after.
Jalili has proposed "The One Plan" to distribute energy subsidies equally to all Iranians, regardless of income, instead of the current income-based cash subsidies in 2021 by allocations of “One” units which could be used like cash to buy fuel or electricity instead of money. Fuel should be sold at international rates after the introduction of the plan.
The plan, he argued, would allow individuals with less energy consumption to sell saved units at any price through a mobile application or treat them as investments for the future. According to information on Jalili’s website, One units can also be used to pay water bills.
Neither Jalili, nor his campaign had made any reference to the plan during the campaign before Friday’s low turnout elections in which he came second after Pezeshkian but his campaign aides and supporters are now extensively promoting the plan as one of Jalili's measures to improve the lives of low-income Iranians.
Jalili formed a shadow government during the presidency of moderate Hassan Rouhani and maintained it during Ebrahim Raisi’s administration to which he appears to have proposed his plan.
Raisi’s government did not implement The One Plan and the price of gasoline remained the same as in 2019. A mini model, however, was introduced in the Persian Gulf free economic zone Island of Kish as a pilot in March 2022 for four months.
Not only economists, but even hardliners media including the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Javan newspaper criticized the pilot plan in Kish Island and said it had increased fuel usage instead of decreasing it.
Fuel gasoline has always been highly subsidized by the government. Smuggling of gasoline and other fuel in huge quantities to neighboring countries including Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, and Pakistan where it is much more expensive is a serious problem for all Iranian governments. Some economic experts say as much of 20 million liters of fuel is smuggled out of Iran every day.
The quadrupling of fuel prices by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government in 2007 sparked riots, particularly in Tehran where petrol stations were torched by angry protesters. Hassan Rouhani’s government increased fuel prices three times. The last increase in November 2019 the tripling of the prices led to extensive protests across the country that lasted a week. Hundreds were killed and security forces seriously injured thousands during the crackdown on protesters.
This decrease in participation has numerous economic, political, and social causes. Chief among them are livelihood difficulties, declining purchasing power, and increasing poverty and unemployment, which leave most Iranians with little incentive to vote. The current state of the country affects over 90% of the population, contributing to a broader social context for this decline in voter turnout.
Schism between the Islamic government and the people
Over the last fifteen years, particularly after the 2009 crackdown on the Green Movement and the "Where Is My Vote?" protests, the masses have distanced themselves from the government in large numbers. This growing divide is evident in the differing lifestyles of the people compared to their rulers, the process of de-ideologization, the increasing belief in the separation of religion and state, the rising use of non-governmental media, and the sexual revolution in society. The government's plan to engineer people's lives based on its Islamist ideology through the education system and by reducing culture, art, sports, and media to government propaganda has failed.
National memory exists
According to government officials, Iranians quickly forget repressions. Hassan Rouhani's advisor, Hesamoddin Ashna, once remarked, "Our sweet people are hard to conquer but easy to reconcile." Similarly, the Minister of Communications under the Raisi administration dismissed complaints about the killings of thousands of protesters in 2017, 2019, and 2022 as mere grumblings, urging people to forget them and vote. Mohammad Reza Aref, Khatami's former VP, also advised not to "tie Iran's future to hatred of the past" to encourage voter turnout.
Contrary to these expectations, Iranian society neither wants to nor can forget the recent repressions. The motto of those who have lost loved ones or been injured, shared by the majority, is "we do not forgive, and we do not forget." As a result, calls from reformists to forget have largely been ignored. The Iranian people are developing a strong political memory and cannot simply move on. It's unrealistic to think they will reconcile with the system just because Pezeshkian is brought into the picture.
Change of reference groups
In the past decades, intellectuals, clerics, and academics were considered influential reference groups in Iran, with a significant portion of the population following their guidance. However, this changed in 2017. Despite opposition from these groups that year, people rose against the regime in more than 100 cities and small towns. Since then, three other groups have gained more influence on society: the families of slain protesters, political prisoners, and union and civic groups. In the 2024 elections, these three groups effectively boycotted the elections, and their boycott had a significant impact.
While celebrities, public figures loyal to the regime, and former and current officials turned some main polling stations in Tehran into social gatherings on June 28, portraying themselves as elites on voting day, the people advised by the new reference groups stayed at home. Government agents often accompany foreign journalists to these central polling stations to create an impression of higher turnout. Consequently, domestic and foreign journalists obtained most of their photos and reports from these locations.
Non-participation has no gender, class, or ethnicity
The non-participation or boycott by the majority of voters, officially reported at 60% last week, cannot be attributed solely to the abstention of women, ethnic groups (Kurds, Baluchs, Arabs), and the poor. This widespread decision to abstain and show resentment towards the government is a cross-class, cross-gender, and cross-ethnic phenomenon. The majority of Iranians do not see a light at the end of tunnel for their future if the Islamist government remains in place.
The participation of Kurds and Baluchis has decreased similarly to others, and the deprived classes have distanced themselves from the ballot boxes in the same manner as the prosperous classes. "No Vote at All" was a national campaign.