Regardless of the winner, tough challenges await Iran’s new president

Amir Shahidi, the father of Mehrshad Shahidi, a 20-year-old chef killed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces in October 2022, wrote on his X account: "Some political factions have attempted to take advantage of the good name of our dear Mehrshad... The Shahidi family does not support any political factions or presidential candidates and considers the use of Mehrshad's name as immoral." The lawyer of the Shahidi family also stated that if Mehrshad Shahidi's name is taken advantage of during election campaigns, they will take legal action against the individuals and parties involved.

Fatemeh Mohajerani, the former Deputy Minister of Education, mentioned Mehrshad Shahidi in her speech during an election campaign in the central city of Arak in support of Masoud Pezeshkian, a presidential candidate. She stated that, as a mother, she could not permit "another Mehrshad Shahidi to fall. We will not allow a few totalitarians to saturate our streets with the blood of our youth."

This is not the first time Pezeshkian’s campaign has faced backlash. During the run-up to the first round of the presidential elections, Pezeshkian visited the graves of some of the victims of Flight PS752, downed by IRGC missiles in 2020, which outraged their families.

Additionally, Pezeshkian's use of an iconic song from Iran's nationwide protests in his presidential campaign sparked backlash on social media. Critics assert that while Pezeshkian condemned the protests dubbed Woman, Life, Freedom, he appropriated the movement's song, “Baraye,” for political gain.

The demonstrations, lasting for months, began after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in police custody, resulting in over 550 deaths. In 2022, Pezeshkian condemned the demonstrations as orchestrated acts of hostility, blaming the US and Europe for igniting Iran's largest uprising since the founding of the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, several families who lost their loved ones during protests in Iran emphasized boycotting the elections by posting on social media.

Mahsa Amini's father stated that his family is boycotting the presidential elections. “We are not endorsing any specific candidate in this election, and we have little hope for the realization of justice in the future," Amjad Amini wrote on Instagram.

Saeed Afkari, the brother of Navid Afkari, who was executed in September 2020 after participating in protests and being accused of killing a government employee, posted several texts about this on X.

Fatemeh Heydari, the sister of Javad Heydari, killed during the crackdown on the 2022 protests in Qazvin, wrote on X: "Although we lack media coverage and financial resources, we will not allow this treacherous minority to amplify their hollow voices over ours, the majority of the Iranian people."

Shabnam Eskandari, the sister of Mohammadreza Eskandari, a victim of the nationwide protests of 2022, described the last moments of her brother’s life and addressed the voters by saying: "They shot him with a military-grade bullet at the corner of the street: amidst heavy gunfire, no one could even take him to the clinic."

The brother of Erfan Khazaei, killed during 2022 nationwide protests, wrote on X, “Choose the right side of history.”

The finalists, hardliner Saeed Jalili and a centrist Masoud Pezeshkian, both are seen by many Iranians as regime insiders, who seem unable to garner the trust of the majority.

Mohsen Renani, a prominent professor of economics and commentator, described Iranians' behavior in last week's elections as politically "mature," regardless of whether they chose to vote or abstain.

"Our nation no longer fears, nor can it be easily influenced. It is not swayed by tempting promises of gold subsidies or free housing, as some candidates have offered. Nor is it influenced by the analyses and solicitations of intellectuals, activists, and academics to take political action,” he wrote.

The Iranian nation "acts according to its own discernment, which represents significant progress in our national pursuit of democracy since the Iranian Constitutional Revolution of 1906," Renani wrote earlier this week. "They know when to act and what to do: when to protest in the streets and when to return home, when to remain silent and when to cry out, when to vote and when to abstain."

For the first time, unlike in any previous presidential elections, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remained conspicuously silent until Wednesday. When he finally spoke, he did not refer to the election as "an epic," a term he typically uses. Instead, he acknowledged that the turnout was "less than expected." However, he insisted that the low turnout was not due to popular dissatisfaction or opposition to clerical rule.

Turnout dropped to 39.92 percent in the first round according to official figures. This turnout rate was the lowest in the four decades since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Only 48 percent voted in 2021 elections which set an earlier record of low turnout. Turnout had not dropped to below 59.7 percent since 2005 and had even been as high as 84.8 percent in 2009.

“There is still not too much enthusiasm to vote in the second round or even to discuss it among those who did not vote earlier,” Farhad, 48, an engineer, told Iran International.

“Of the people I know, family and acquaintances, some people are posting stories on Instagram condemning the vote comparing participation in the elections as betrayal of the blood of the victims of the past few years’ crackdowns on protesters. Others say they are voting to save Iran from the total dominance of ultra-hardliners,” he added.

“But there is also the core Jalili supporters who are enthusiastically campaigning for their candidate to win and to make a statement about the legitimacy of the ruling establishment,” Farhad said. “They are all over social media platforms.”

Of the two candidates, only Pezeshkian has unequivocally acknowledged that the low turnout was a result of popular dissatisfaction, calling it a "meaningful message to the government, society, and political groups." He has repeatedly stated in campaign speeches, films, and televised debates that he wants to represent the 60 percent who did not vote.

Rather than denouncing those who participated in the Woman, Life, Freedom protests of 2022-23 known as Mahsa Protests and calling them “rioters” as hardliners do, Pezeshkian has been criticizing the government for violence against Mahsa and others for hijab as he had done in a tweet a day after her death in custody in September 2020.

Pezeshkian’s supporters in the past few days have expressed their support for the Mahsa movement at campaign meetings. At his campaign gatherings including a gathering at Heydarnia Stadium in Tehran Wednesday, his supporters chanted Woman, Life, Freedom.

At the same time, he agreed with denying internet service to people during times of unrest, which the government did in November 2019 when security forces killed at least 1,500 civilians. He has also pledged to fully follow Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies, exhibiting contradictory signals to voters who are highly mistrustful of regime politicians.

Pahlavi stated Thursday on X that with the current authorities gone, "there will be a truly healthy open economy," and all forms of "gender, sexual, and religious discrimination" will be eliminated.

“I firmly believe this is achievable, and I am confident that the primary resources to accomplish it are largely within Iran, ready to fill this void swiftly,” Pahlavi said.

Pahlavi urged Iranians to "join the families of the martyrs of Iran's national revolution from December 2017 to November 2019 to the Mahsa uprising" and to stand by political prisoners from various backgrounds.

He warned against the clerical establishment's use of citizens' names and “votes to support terrorists and criminals in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen,” which “drags the region and the world into war and chaos.”

Furthermore, he highlighted the regime's misuse of national wealth and the rising costs of essentials like water, bread, and gasoline.

Pahlavi's call for an election boycott resonates with numerous other Iranian activists who have similarly boycotted Iran's presidential elections, making voter turnout a central theme of this campaign.

Amirsalar Davoudi, a lawyer incarcerated in Evin Prison, denounced the election as a "selection" in a letter from prison. He declared his refusal to participate, asserting that the Islamic Republic pursues only a path of "lies and deceit."

In recent weeks, many dissidents have expressed publicly that the upcoming election is a manipulated facade rather than a genuine democratic process.

In his letter, Davoudi pointed out that there is disagreement among some intellectuals and advocates who want a fundemantal change in the country, about whether they should participate in the election or not.

The lawyer and dissident has been sentenced to imprisonment for advocating for a total system overhaul through the empowerment of the people.

In his fifth year of a 10-year sentence, Davoudi is widely regarded as embodying resistance to a government criticized for suppressing genuine democratic expression.

Sepideh Gholian, another political prisoner, described abstaining from voting as a form of "civil resistance" under current conditions.

Given the absence of a democratic mechanism in Iran, elections are widely believed to be predetermined outcomes by the country's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

She says that participating in the elections allows Tehran to present a false image of "legitimacy," especially in international forums.

Gholian emphasized that the Islamic Republic is striving to be perceived as legitimate following its "severe and bloody" crackdown on the nationwide protests in 2022.

In direct contrast, those boycotting the election at great risk say that their protest is intended to signal to other countries that the state lacks legitimacy among the broader populace.

Gholian expressed hope for the eventual "overthrow" of the Islamic Republic, illustrating the deep-seated desire for systemic change among many Iranians.

Farhad Meysami, a civil activist and former political prisoner, denied reports of his participation in the elections. In an Instagram post, Meysami declared that he did not need an attorney or guardian to express his views. His response was prompted by claims from some reformist political activists, including Mohammadreza Jalaeipour, about his alleged participation.

This incident highlights the presence of manipulation and misinformation in political discourse in Iran, with false narratives potentially swaying public perception.

Meysami called on those spreading the "false news" to correct it, emphasizing the importance of truthful representation in the fight for genuine democratic processes.

Former political prisoner Abolfazl Ghadiani also called for a boycott of the election. He emphasized that the solution to Iran's problems lies in transforming the “ruling religious dictatorship” into a “democratic secular republic” through “civil and political resistance.”

Ghadiani’s stance echoes a broader sentiment among activists who believe that superficial electoral changes are insufficient and that only a complete overhaul of the political system can address the root issues facing the country.

Motahareh Gounei, an exiled student and detainee from nationwide protests, reiterated her stance on not voting in a post on X.

She stressed that her red line is "human dignity" and the “defense of civil rights,” not the whims of the leadership and the policies of the Islamic Republic.

Gounei’s message also highlighted the personal sacrifices and risks undertaken by activists who oppose the current government, often enduring imprisonment and exile. She emphasized that a bright future will be built by people who no longer have faith in the government, underscoring the profound disillusionment with the existing political framework.

Many observers say that this collective and unprecedented action represents a complete rejection of the current political system, aiming to communicate to both domestic authorities and the international community the pressing need for real change.

Meanwhile, concerns are rising within Iranian society about the ability of both candidates to tackle the country's problems. Another heated discussion centers on the reaction of those who boycotted the election or abstained, who make up more than 60 percent of eligible voters. The key question is whether some of them will support Pezeshkian in the runoff on Friday.

This concern was evident in the remarks of Prince Reza Pahlavi, who called for a national boycott and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who acknowledged the low participation rate in what some observers dubbed a humiliating admission.

Pro-reform politicians and social media users have suggested that ultraconservative candidate Saeed Jalili's brother, who heads the state television, may have used his influence to shape the debate's questions and answers.

Mohsen Hashemi, the chairman of the central council of the pro-reform Executives of Construction Party, charged in an interview with Khabar Online that the questions asked by the state TV presenter were designed to tarnish Pezeshkian's image and create doubts about his integrity.

Hashemi added that Jalili's influence on state television is deep-rooted, thanks to his brother's position as the head of the country's sole broadcaster.

Meanwhile, he dismissed accusations that members of the Rouhani administration are running Pezeshkian's campaign and that his possible government would be a continuation of former President Hassan Rouhani's presidency.

Hashemi claimed that the questions were given to Jalili beforehand to better prepare him for the debate. Nonetheless, he opined that the two rounds of debates between the runoff candidates are likely to boost election participation by 10 percent.

Like many others, Hashemi noted that both candidates were more polite in the first debate, while the second debate was marked by agitation and anger from both sides.

Khabar Online wrote in another report that Jalili used the same tactics as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, i.e., trying to make his opponent angry and at the same time smile at him.

The report added that the state TV and its presenters clearly favored Jalili and nearly all of the staff members present on the set supported the ultraconservative candidate. The website characterized, particularly the second debate, as quarrels rather than a conversation.

The website noted that Jalili was utterly nervous and even hysteric during the debate and raised his vice at several points and frequently interrupted Pezeshkian. At times, both candidates clenched their fists, noted the website.

A point made by other observers was that none of the candidates showed any interest in the key issue of the environment in the two debates.

Some observers continued to express concern for the perils of the possible election of hardliner Jalili as Iran's next president. One of them was Abdolreza Faraji Rad, Iran's former ambassador to Norway and Hungary, who said Jalili's possible win will be too costly for Iran's foreign policy.

On the same note, Hamid Hosseini an expert on energy has also warned that a country of 80 million population cannot be run on barter trade involving sheep and mango. He was referring to a recent transaction between Iran and Pakistan.

The concern is also evident among the public. Journalist Roozbeh Bolhari quoted pro-government reformist activist Saeed Laylaz as saying that Iran's reformists were hoping that another 10 million would vote to finish the election in the first round, but they did not. As a result, Laylaz pointed out,