Global protests mark second anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death

Bagheri-Kani, considered a protégé of hardline politician Saeed Jalili, served less than three years in the foreign ministry until the new administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian took over in August.

The SCFR, established in 2006 by order of the Supreme Leader, has all its members directly appointed by Ali Khamenei. On Saturday, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior foreign policy advisor to Khamenei and chair of the SCFR, hosted a ceremony to bid farewell to Abbas Araghchi, the outgoing secretary who left the position to become Iran's foreign minister, and welcome Bagheri-Kani as his successor.

Araghchi was also a nuclear negotiator in President Hassan Rouhani administration until August 2021, when hardliner Ebrahim Raisi assumed office and changed top foreign ministry officials.

Jalili attended Saturday’s ceremony and appeared next to Bagheri-Kani in a group photo, sparking interest due to their close association. Bagheri-Kani is widely recognized as an ally of Jalili, having followed his negotiation strategies while serving as the chief nuclear negotiator under President Raisi. However, those strategies were largely seen as unsuccessful, as they failed to result in any substantial agreements with the West.

Jalili, who lost the 2024 presidential election to Masoud Pezeshkian, has long been a staunch opponent of any compromise with the West on the nuclear issue. He remains an influential figure among Iran’s hardliners, who were critical of the previous administration under Hassan Rouhani, particularly regarding the JCPOA nuclear deal with world powers.

Although the SCFR is generally seen as a ceremonial body where Khamenei appoints former officials to keep them engaged, it still holds some influence. Kharrazi, the council's president, continues to be a key foreign policy advisor to Khamenei. Bagheri-Kani’s appointment raises concerns that Jalili’s allies might use the SCFR to exert more influence over Iran’s foreign policy.

The G7 statement, seen as a rebuke to Tehran's growing military ties to Moscow, highlighted that despite international warnings, Iran has continued to arm Russia, directly contributing to the death and destruction in Ukraine.

The ministers stressed the critical role Iranian-made drones and missiles have played in Russia's indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.

According to the G7, "Iran must immediately cease all support to Russia's illegal and unjustifiable war against Ukraine and halt such transfers of ballistic missiles, UAVs, and related technology." The statement emphasized that these actions pose a direct threat not only to Ukraine but to European and international security as well.

The G7 vowed to hold Iran accountable for its deepening role in the war, noting that further punitive measures were already in motion. This comes as part of a broader effort to curb Iran’s escalating involvement in aiding Russia, a partnership that the G7 sees as undermining global stability and international law.

Iran downplays sanctions but stresses dialogue

In recent weeks, European nations have moved quickly to counter Iran’s military assistance to Russia. The European Troika—comprising the UK, France, and Germany—released a joint statement condemning the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. They have since imposed sanctions on Iran’s aerospace industries and are signaling their intent to suspend all air services to the country.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, dismissed the latest sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and the European Union on Iran, signaling Tehran's defiance in the face of Western pressure. “Tehran will continue its path with strength,” he said, framing the sanctions as futile attempts to halt Iran’s military cooperation with Russia. However, Araghchi also emphasized that Iran remains open to dialogue, though he stressed that negotiations must be based on "mutual respect, not on threats and pressure." He denounced sanctions as tools of "pressure and confrontation, not cooperation."

The UK has targeted seven individuals and entities linked to Iran’s aerospace sector, while the US has gone a step further by sanctioning Iran Air for facilitating the transfer of these missiles. European nations have followed suit, with several moving to cancel bilateral air service agreements with other Iranian airlines.

West united in condemning missile deliveries

The US Treasury Department confirmed earlier this month that Russia received its first shipment of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran. Satellite images published by European media revealed a Russian cargo ship, "Port Olya 3," transporting the missiles across the Caspian Sea. Maxar Technologies, an intelligence company, captured the ship docked at an Iranian port before it vanished from radar. Ukrainian sources reported that the shipment contained approximately 220 Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles, weapons that could be deployed in Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Despite overwhelming evidence, Iran’s state airline, Iran Air, has denied any involvement in the military transfers. In a statement to Dideban Iran, Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Parliament accused Western nations of “fabricating allegations” as part of a broader campaign to undermine Iran’s sovereignty.

“These countries recently sanctioned Iran Air despite the airline having no involvement in military matters,” Zohrevand stated, calling the sanctions a form of "unacceptable interference in Iran’s domestic policies." He argued that the West, particularly the US and Europe, was using Iran as a scapegoat to deflect attention from their own failures in Ukraine.

Tehran looking for easy ways to reduce sanctions

Meanwhile, reports from The Washington Post indicate that President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration is signaling a cautious interest in re-engaging with the West, potentially in pursuit of sanctions relief. However, with Iran embroiled in the Hamas and Hezbollah conflict with Israel and the lack of a new nuclear deal, the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough seems more remote than ever.

Despite the country’s deepening crises, Pezeshkian has appointed key figures like Abbas Araghchi and former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, both of whom were instrumental in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. However, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s skepticism toward Western engagement casts doubt on the likelihood of any significant diplomatic shift.

As Iran walks a tightrope between its military alignment with Russia and its economic needs, it finds itself increasingly isolated and under mounting international pressure.

This latest demonstration of its advancing missile technology comes as tensions with the West intensify over Tehran’s military support for Russia and its ballistic missile program.

According to Iranian news outlets, the satellite, named Chamran 1, was launched on Saturday aboard the Qaem 100 solid-fuel satellite launcher, operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The satellite was reportedly placed into orbit at an altitude of 550 kilometers, marking the IRGC's second "successful" orbital mission with this launcher.

While Iran insists that the Chamran 1 is purely a "research" satellite, designed to test hardware and software systems and demonstrate in-orbit maneuvering technologies, Western officials and experts remain skeptical.

"Iran’s space program is a cover for the regime’s longer range strike capabilities and a pathway to an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that could be used to threaten the US homeland and the European continent," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior FDD fellow, told Iran International.

The West has long accused Iran of exploiting its space program to test technologies that can be repurposed for military use, specifically long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Despite numerous UN resolutions calling for a halt to these activities, Tehran has pressed ahead, raising alarms across the globe.

Reports from the Iranian media say that Chamran 1 “weighs approximately 60 kilograms and is also tasked with secondary missions, such as testing cold-gas propulsion systems and evaluating navigation and attitude control subsystems.”

The satellite’s launch follows Iran's January 2024 launch of the Soraya satellite, also aboard the Qaem 100. That mission was met with condemnation from European nations, including Britain, France, and Germany, which are all part of the now-fractured nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the JCPOA.

In a joint statement issued earlier this year, the European Troika expressed concerns over Iran’s continued missile tests, noting that the Qaem 100 launcher relies on the same technology used in Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles.

Such launches allow Iran to test technologies that could be used to further develop its ballistic missile program, the statement said, warning that such activities pose a threat to regional and international security.

“⁠Iran’s space program may be improving due to Russian assistance in exchange for drones and more recently missiles," says Taleblu, the author of “Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program."

This latest launch comes at a critical time, as Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities appear to be advancing in tandem. With each satellite launch, Tehran not only bolsters its space ambitions but also refines the technologies necessary for long-range missile systems. These developments, combined with Iran’s growing stockpile of enriched uranium, inch the country closer to crossing the nuclear threshold—a scenario that could destabilize the Middle East and heighten global security risks.

The IRGC’s Aerospace Force has been at the forefront of Iran’s space and missile programs. Taleblu says “⁠Iran’s newer solid-propellant satellite launch vehicles are run entirely by the IRGC Aerospace Force - a terrorist entity with its finger on the trigger of the biggest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East.”

In previous statements, its commanders have boasted of placing satellites like Noor 3 into orbits as high as 450 kilometers, further showcasing Iran’s growing proficiency in space and missile technology. Yet, for all its claims of peaceful scientific progress, Iran's pursuit of dual-use technologies continues to stoke fears that its ultimate goal is far more dangerous.

The Biden administration was expected to make a determination regarding sanctions on Iran's Supreme Leader and President through an unclassified report by July 23, 90 days after the MAHSA Act was enacted.

The administration has faced criticism from Iranian American activists for not enforcing the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability Act (MAHSA Act) months after its passage, which aimed to sanction Iran's leadership. Although the MAHSA Act became law in April, the required report outlining potential sanctions on key Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader, has yet to be submitted.

Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran, expressed frustration on X (formerly Twitter), stating, "With the second anniversary of Mahsa Amini's murder coming up, many people who spent a lot of time advocating for the law are still waiting for the overdue sanctions."

The MAHSA Act, a bipartisan piece of human rights and anti-terrorism legislation, represents the first instance of the United States imposing sanctions specifically targeting Iranian leadership for domestic repression, crimes against humanity, and international terrorism.

Named after Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian-Kurdish woman who died in police custody after being arrested in Tehran for improperly wearing her compulsory hijab, the legislation has become a symbol of the "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprising.

Following Amini's death, over 550 Iranians were killed as the government responded with force to the country's most significant challenge to its legitimacy since the Islamic Republic's founding in 1979. The MAHSA Act mandates sanctions on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his Office, his appointees, Iran’s President, and several entities affiliated with Khamenei. It also requires the US President to report to Congress annually on the status of these sanctions, complicating efforts for current and future administrations to lift them unilaterally.

It is not clear if delegating enforcement to the Treasury will result in some action before the November election or until the end of this administration, but in either case, the White House and the State Department have distanced themselves from the issue.

Two years after the protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death, a UN Fact-Finding Mission report on Friday highlighted ongoing human rights abuses in Iran, particularly against women. Ahead of the anniversary, Amnesty International also echoed these concerns, condemning the Iranian authorities' brutal crackdown on the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement. The organization emphasized the ongoing "war on women and girls," noting an intensified crackdown on those defying harsh veiling laws and an increased use of the death penalty to silence dissent, reflecting a broader assault on human rights and systematic impunity for crimes under international law.

The backlash was triggered by a photo displayed at a bakery entrance stating, "By order of the prosecutor, the sale of bread to foreign nationals is prohibited" and warning that violations would result in punitive actions against the business.

The directive, issued by the Prosecutor of Bardsir County in southeastern Kerman Province, restricts bread sales to "foreign nationals," a term often used in Iran to specifically refer to Afghan citizens, regardless of their legal status. The order has drawn sharp criticism from civil and political activists, as well as officials. While the directive lacked clarity on its application to Afghan migrants legally in the country, the criticism centers on the broader implications and perceived discriminatory nature of the measure.

Rasoul Mousavi, an aide to Iran's Foreign Minister, shared the photo on the X platform and condemned the directive, lamenting, "What has happened to us with this history, culture, literature, and mysticism, that we have come to this?"

Initially, Mizan News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Judiciary, denied the accuracy of the report, suggesting the banner was misleading. However, further clarification revealed that Afghans are restricted to purchasing bread only from designated bakeries in the camps or from those offering non-subsidized bread at higher prices. A subsequent update from Mizan stated that "this decision was not a judicial one, but was approved in the Security Council of Bardsir County with the involvement of government and law enforcement officials."

The government has acknowledged that subsidized bread prices in the country have surged by 40 to 66 percent, with further increases anticipated due to the ongoing economic crisis. While some bakeries continue to offer subsidized bread, others do not, reflecting inconsistencies in the availability of price-controlled staples across the country.

Anti-Afghan sentiment has surged alongside a rapid increase in Afghan migrants, with reports suggesting that up to 10,000 Afghans are entering Iran daily, bringing the total Afghan population close to 10 million. This growing hostility is fueled by the severe economic hardships faced by many Iranians, who view the influx as exacerbating competition for scarce resources and jobs. Activists and politicians warn that this mounting resentment could escalate into violence against migrants and pose a significant security risk for the country.

Experts contend that misguided, hasty, and poorly conceived policies in managing the unregulated presence of migrants—lacking proper oversight and follow-up—have significantly contributed to the current surge in antipathy toward Afghans across the country.

Social media and state-controlled outlets have seen debates and protests, with some alleging that the government has allowed unchecked migration for ulterior motives, including bolstering military ranks with Afghan recruits, particularly through the Afghan Hazara Fatemiyoun Brigade linked to the IRGC.

Critics argue that under former President Ebrahim Raisi, incentives like subsidized energy and food were offered to increase the Afghan population as a countermeasure to Iran's declining population. However, facing economic struggles, Iran appears to be shifting this strategy.

On Tuesday, Ahmadreza Radan, the Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Law Enforcement, announced plans to expel nearly two million unauthorized foreign nationals by the end of March. Additionally, in May, authorities announced the establishment of a "special patrol" in Shahr-e Rey, south of Tehran, tasked with identifying and apprehending undocumented foreign nationals. This is while, according to domestic media, more than 90% of those forcibly deported eventually return, primarily benefiting human traffickers.