EU set to sanction Iran over missile transfers to Russia

The warnings could mean any escalation to flaring Iranian-Israeli tensions could draw in other countries in the critical oil-exporting region.

"Iran has warned it would respond with devastating hits on Israel’s civilian infrastructure, and would retaliate against any Arab state that facilitated the attack," the daily reported.

Some US allies in the region have conveyed to Washington that they disapprove of Israeli or American use of their airspace for any attack on Iran or having their land used as a launchpad for any strike, the paper added, citing US defense officials.

Israel has vowed a painful retaliation for an Oct. 1 Iranian attack with nearly 200 ballistic missiles, while the United States has publicly urged its ally in the region to carry out a proportional response that avoids nuclear and oil sites.

Arab states astride the Persian Gulf including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have refused to let Israel use their air space in any attack, Reuters reported on Wednesday citing Arab officials.

The US allies are lobbying Washington to prevent Israel from striking oil facilities in Iran for fear that their own oil infrastructure would be hit in a counterattack.

Much of the oil market's spare capacity lies with Arab countries in the Persian Gulf region. 

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has had a political rapprochement with Tehran since 2023 which has helped ease regional tensions, but relations remain strained.

Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its key refinery at Abqaiq briefly shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.

On Thursday, Mohammad Hossein Zarezadeh, head of the IRGC-affiliated Basij Medical Society, asserted their efforts have prevented approximately 6,000 abortions over the past three years, reporting a success rate of 90%.

The organization relies on a network of intermediaries—doctors, midwives, and health workers—to identify couples seeking abortions. These intermediaries are said to refer individuals to Basij advisors, who then offer religious, legal, and medical counseling aimed at discouraging the procedure.

This initiative aligns with the state’s broader agenda to boost national birth rates, supported by policies like the "Youthful Population" law enacted in 2021.

However, some of the officials’ statements last year suggest that Iran's population growth rate has dropped to 0.6 percent from 1.23 three years ago which was also much lower than the 4.21 percent in 1984, five years after the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

In an effort to counter this continuing trend, Iranian officials announced in July the establishment of anti-abortion centers in 250 cities nationwide, according to a Health Ministry official.

These centers, part of the Nafas network—a state initiative aimed at reducing abortions—have been referred to by some observers as “anti-abortion patrols,” drawing comparisons to Iran’s hijab enforcement units for their active role in monitoring personal behavior.

The Iranian government’s restrictions on reproductive choices intensified after March 2021, when parliament passed a law barring public health services from offering family planning options—such as contraceptives, vasectomies, and tubectomies—except when a woman’s health is at risk.

Zarezadeh also noted that economic hardship is a major factor driving many abortion decisions, particularly during the engagement period. To address this, the Basij coordinates with charitable organizations to provide financial support, including dowries, to encourage couples to marry and start families rather than opt for abortion.

The Basij, initially formed as a volunteer paramilitary force during the 1980–1988 Iran-Iraq War, has since extended its influence across various sectors of Iranian society, including healthcare. Operating under the IRGC, the Basij aligns its activities with state policies that promote population growth and traditional family values.

Internationally, the IRGC and its affiliates, including the Basij, are designated as terrorist organizations by the United States, adding complexity to their domestic and global activities.

"We are actively working together in the international arena, and our assessments of events taking place in the world are often very close," Putin said during a meeting with Pezeshkian on the sidelines of an international conference in Turkmenistan, as reported by Russia’s state news agency TASS.

"Economically and culturally, our communications are being strengthened day by day and becoming more robust," Pezeshkian was cited as telling Putin by Iran's official IRNA news agency.

"The growing trend of cooperation between Iran and Russia, considering the will of the top leaders of both countries, must be accelerated to strengthen these ties," he said.

In their first face-to-face meeting, Pezeshkian accepted an invitation from his counterpart to visit Russia, according to the state-run RIA news agency. However, RIA did not mention a specific date for the visit.

According to the Russian head of state’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, discussions between the leaders focused on strengthening bilateral relations and addressing the rapidly escalating crisis in the Middle East.

The deepening partnership between Iran and Russia has sparked renewed alarm in Washington and London, particularly over Tehran’s provision of ballistic missiles and suicide drones to support Moscow's war in Ukraine. In exchange, Russia is suspected of supplying Iran with sensitive nuclear technology and intelligence—a development that has left Western officials increasingly uneasy, as it could edge Iran closer to achieving its long-pursued ambition of developing nuclear weapons.

According to sources cited by Bloomberg, "the Kremlin has increased its cooperation with Iran over its ambitions to obtain atomic weapons in recent months," referencing concerns raised by Western officials.

Western intelligence has observed growing collaboration between Moscow and Tehran, sparking alarm over the potential transfer of nuclear expertise that could accelerate Iran’s path toward weaponizing its atomic program. These revelations were reportedly a key topic of discussion during a meeting between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden at the White House in September.

During the international gathering, both Iran and Russia issued strong condemnations of Israel, with Pezeshkian asserting that Israel must "stop killing innocent people" while also attributing its actions in the Middle East to support from the United States and the European Union.

After a series of devastating Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah and the killing of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Iran retaliated on October 1 with a large missile barrage against Israel. This marked Iran's second missile strike since April, though, like the previous attack, it resulted in minimal damage. While Israel quickly vowed a decisive response, no counterattack has occurred so far.

Both Russia and Iran face heavy Western sanctions, leaving them somewhat isolated on the global stage. Russia's invasion of Ukraine made it the most sanctioned country in the world, surpassing Iran. Despite aiming for $40 billion in bilateral trade, the current level stands at just $4 billion, a gap even acknowledged by Iranian officials.

As both nations navigate sanctions, Iran is solidifying long-term agreements with key partners like China and Russia, in line with Supreme Leader Khamenei’s "Looking East" policy—a cornerstone of the hardliners' “revolutionary economy.” While Pezeshkian supports this approach, he has also expressed openness to dialogue with the West, aiming to ease sanctions.

Although this deal is not new, Zakani is facing renewed scrutiny from the General Inspection Organization of Iran (GIO), further intensifying tensions around his leadership and sparking debates over his handling of the city’s key challenges.

Following a trip to China in January, Zakani announced to the Tehran City Council that he had signed several significant agreements, including a €1.67 billion contract to improve the city’s transportation system.

The deal was set to cover a wide range of transportation products, including electric buses, taxis, vans, subway cars, and traffic cameras. However, despite the City Council approving a €2 billion budget for this purpose, members are still in the dark about the exact details of the agreements signed by Zakani.

The financial complexity of the deal has raised red flags. Tehran’s municipality lacks the hard currency reserves needed to cover the cost, leading to speculation that the funds will be drawn from Iranian oil revenues held in China.

The involvement of the Oil Ministry in the process suggested that the deal’s approval likely came from the highest echelons of power, with reports indicating the Supreme Leader’s office may have sanctioned it.

Most recently, the GIO, which operates under Iran’s judiciary, convened a session on the China deal. Media outlets, eager for information, reported that participants were surprised by the leak of the session’s news and were unwilling to disclose details discussed.

Tehran-based Didban News noted that the meeting addressed “ambiguities and issues regarding the municipality’s contract with China,” highlighting the continuing opacity surrounding the deal.

Speculation also emerged regarding a potential travel ban imposed on Zakani, attributed to the GIO’s ongoing review of the €2 billion contract. The issue has reportedly reached the Supreme Leader’s office, where Zakani is believed to have lodged a formal complaint about the GIO's scrutiny.

According to sources like Rouydad24, Zakani wrote a 10-page letter to Khamenei, expressing grievances against Mohammad Mehdi Bolandian, a senior GIO official.

The China deal is just one of the controversies enveloping Zakani's tenure. Earlier this year, Zakani faced a public outcry when a popular petition to unseat him gained significant traction.

In July, over 71,000 people signed the petition, which criticized his management of the capital, including the repurposing of green spaces for mosque construction and commercial developments. Many argued these decisions reflected a broader failure to address Tehran’s most pressing issues.

Zakani, a hardliner who was among the few candidates approved by the Guardian Council to run in the 14th presidential election, withdrew from the race in favor of other conservative figures.

His tenure as mayor has been marred by unresolved issues, from mismanagement of public spaces to his controversial stance during the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests, where his name was included in sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom.

As a former leader of the Student Basij Organization, Zakani’s past continues to haunt him. His trip to Brussels in 2022 also ignited outrage, with critics like Belgian MP Darya Safai condemning his presence, citing his involvement in an organization sanctioned for human rights violations.

Is the call for weaponization genuine?

The short answer is "No." Since 2003, Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful. The push for weaponization comes from a small faction of hardliners—about 39 lawmakers, making up just over 10 percent of the 290-seat parliament. This parliament, however, has steadily lost its influence, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei increasingly bypassing it and delegating key decisions to others, such as the heads of the three branches of government and the unelected Expediency Discernment Council.

The longer answer lies in a popular Iranian saying: "No leaf falls from any tree without the Supreme Leader's permission." Khamenei makes all key decisions but prefers to give the appearance that others are initiating actions. If something fails, he can shift the blame; if it succeeds, he claims the credit. This pattern has been seen before, including during the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Is weaponization something Khamenei wants?

Perhaps. However, Khamenei's primary goal is likely to disrupt and unsettle Iran's regional neighbors and adversaries. Tehran has almost lost one of its main tools of leverage—Hezbollah—after Israel significantly weakened the group's influence in the region. Now, Khamenei can shift focus to the nuclear issue, using it as a means to exert pressure on key players like the United States, Europe, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, maintaining his influence in regional and international affairs.

Hasn't he issued a fatwa against weaponization?

Khamenei’s position on nuclear weapons has been ambiguous. While he was quoted as opposing weapons of mass destruction in 2010 and reiterated in 2018 that "using nuclear weapons is prohibited," he never explicitly declared it as a formal fatwa. Instead, Iranian officials framed his statement as equivalent to a fatwa. A fatwa, a religious decree declaring something haram (forbidden) or halal (permissible), can only be issued by qualified religious scholars under specific conditions. Since Khamenei's rise as Supreme Leader, some senior religious figures, including grand ayatollahs, have questioned his authority to issue such decrees.

Supporters of the 2015 nuclear deal, both in Iran and the U.S., pointed to this supposed fatwa as evidence that Iran would not pursue weaponization. However, critics argued that even a genuine fatwa can be reversed by its issuer or challenged by other religious authorities. The recent calls from Iranian lawmakers for a shift in nuclear policy, citing the "dynamism of Shariah," have validated those critics' concerns, proving that the fatwa was never a permanent or uncontested safeguard.

Has anyone in Iran challenged the call for weaponization?

Yes, there has been pushback. Some critics have voiced their concerns cautiously, while others have openly warned Khamenei, politicians, and the public about the dangers of weaponization. Meanwhile, some hardliners remain enthusiastic about the idea.

The conservative website Nameh News quoted politician Hossein Anwari, who stated that Iran’s strategy towards Israel aligns with the Supreme Leader's directives, urging caution against "radicalism" and advising not to act prematurely. Meanwhile, reformist commentator Ahmad Zeidabadi, quoted by News24, argued that discussing changes to Iran's nuclear doctrine would not enhance deterrence but instead could provoke military attacks on the country.

How has Khamenei reacted?

Khamenei has remained silent on the issue so far. The closest statement came from Rassoul Sanaeirad, a deputy in the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces, who told the IRGC-linked Fars News Agency that discussions about changing Iran's strategic nuclear policies "cross regional and international red lines." However, it is unclear whether Sanaierad's remarks represent his personal opinion or reflect Khamenei's official stance on the matter.

Is this the final verdict on the issue?

Probably not. As observed over the past 45 years, statements by Iranian officials are often temporary, remaining valid only until another official steps in to contradict or refute them.