The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has deprived the Islamic Republic of a key partner, weakening its influence abroad and tearing away a fear barrier which could inspire Iranians to rise against their own rulers.
Iran’s outpost in Syria has collapsed, Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding told Iran International, upending Iran's military strategy abroad so thoroughly that it may inspire opponents at home to oust the 45-year-old Islamic Republic.
“The Iranians have taken a huge hit here,” he told Iran International. “It’s certainly ripped up that important [smuggling] corridor it relied on, from Iran to the Mediterranean. Syria now will be a country not in Iran’s control. Iran will lose a lot of assets they’ve invested in, properties they took over won’t remain Iranian.”
He said that as a result of the rapid fall of Syria in less than a week, after being in the hands of the Assad family for five decades, it could also bode well for a full overthrow of the government in Iran, which has been growing ever weaker since the uprising of 2022.
“It will be inspiring many people across the region to see what Syria has done and that will be unnerving for the Iranian regime,” not least, with the weakening of Iran-backed allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, leaving Iran’s archenemy Israel now in a much stronger position.
“The borders of Syria are certainly not in the hands of the Assad regime now," he dais and highlighted that Kurds control the borders with Iraq. "If Iran wanted to smuggle weapons and fighters into Syria, the Iraqi border is very important. Iran will be reassessing its strategies here and with a Trump administration coming, who knows. It faces some stark choices."
Arash Azizi, a visiting fellow at Boston University’s Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, said he agrees.
"The fall of Assad is the most important blow the Iranian regime has suffered in years," he told Iran International. "It signals the collapse of its 'Axis of Resistance' [military allies across the region] which has been the mainstay of Khamenei’s policy during most of his decades-long term as Supreme Leader," he added.
Iran has for decades supported groups in countries including Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria.
"Khamenei already had problems saving face given the massive blows the Axis received in the last year but this leaves him further humiliated and isolated," he said, referring to the blows dealt to Iran's largest proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza.
After the Hamas invasion of October 7 last year, Israel has been engaged in its longest ever conflict with the Iran-backed group, while Hezbollah on Israel's northern border attacked on a second front, with others from Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the West Bank.
Israel has killed huge swathes of Hezbollah's leadership, including long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, and according to the Israeli military, taken it back decades. In Gaza, Hamas has also been dealt a huge blow, with the majority of its battalions and infrastructure across the strip destroyed.
Internally, it will also hurt Tehran, said Azizi, in addition to the risks it now faces from the incoming Trump presidency, who has vowed a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran and its allies.
"The fall of Assad shows the weakness of the Iranian regime and will be definitely a boost for the regime’s opponents. It will inspire them to take it on especially as the regime is hemmed in from other sides too: the return of Trump to White House will likely bring renewed pressure on it and Israel is also strengthened," he explained.
"But it will also have effects on the regime’s internal composition. Those factions who seek a deal with the West and want Iran to step back from some of its aggressive policies will see a boost. They will try to get a deal with Trump at any price that might get them some respite."
However, Azizi argued the opposition to the Islamic Republic must become better organized to capitalize on the changing landscape for the impact to be truly felt at home.
"The Iranian opposition could have used this as an excellent opportunity to act against the regime but it’s extremely disorganized and thus not able to," he said. "Its hope will rest on spontaneous movements from the Iranian people — which can never be predicted but is always possible."
Ehud Yaari, an Israeli Lafer International Fellow at The Washington Institute, wrote on Sunday that while concerns persist about weapons such as chemical arms, long-range rockets, and surface-to-surface missiles falling into extremist hands, it is “time to celebrate” the downfall of the Assad dynasty, which ruled for over 50 years.
He said the need to reinforce the Druze communities on Israel's northern border is vital, and that is now recognized by the Israeli government.
“The concerns about chemical weapons and heavy missiles falling into the hands of the rebels are certainly justified, but let us remember that there is a huge distance between seizing chemical materials and the ability and, of course, the desire to use them,” he wrote in his column for Channel 12.
“The rebel leaders already announced this morning that they are ready to help international organizations dismantle the chemical weapons that Assad has accumulated and announced that in any case they have no intention of using them."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he had ordered the Israeli military to "seize" the demilitarized zone that lies between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, saying the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria “has collapsed”.
”We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” the Israeli prime minister said after referring to the ousting of Iran-allied Bashar al-Assad as a “historic day”.
The Israeli military announced the deployment of troops on Sunday morning, adding that the Israeli military is “not interfering with the internal events in Syria”, while the area is a key point to keep the country secure.
The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) has been in place for over 50 years to monitor the 80km (50-mile) long strip of land 24 hours a day.
Since the October 7 Hamas attacks last year, the issue of cross-border incursions has become an ever-looming threat to Israel, which is on a state of high alert. Several areas around along the border were declared closed military zones on Sunday.
In a clear message to Syria, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sar released a statement Saturday night saying: “Over the past 24 hours, armed forces have entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel. Among other actions, attacks were carried out against UNDOF forces in the area.
“Israel is concerned about violations of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement between Israel and Syria, which also pose a threat to its security, the safety of its communities, and its citizens, particularly in the Golan Heights region. The State of Israel does not intervene in the internal conflict in Syria.”
According to Israel’s Mako, however, the Israeli military has resumed Operation Good Neighbor, a project set up in 2016 which saw both civilians and rebel militia such as Al Nusra Front treated in Israel’s field hospital near the border in a bid to maintain peace. Since then there have been more than 110 such operations carried out.
“The IDF provided aid to Syrians on the other side of the border for two primary reasons. Firstly, we have a moral imperative. We can’t stand by watching a severe humanitarian crisis without helping the innocent people stuck in the middle of the conflict. We also believe that the aid will ultimately create a less hostile environment across the border and that will lead to improved Israeli security,” a statement said.
Around 200,000 residents of the Hauran region of southwestern Syria were part of the program, including roughly 400 families living in tents near the Israel-Syria border. Others lived in villages or out in the open. Half of those receiving aid were children.
Over 4,000 people have so far been brought to Israel to receive treatment, including hundreds of children with further transfers of medicine, supplies, and equipment being sent across the border.
In addition to medical aid, the project has seen over 450,000 liters of fuel transferred for heating, operating water wells, and ovens in bakeries. A further seven generators, water pipes to rebuild Syrian infrastructure, and equipment for a temporary school in the region were transferred.
The Israeli military said it had also transferred 40 tons of flour to bakeries, 225 tons of food, 12,000 packages of baby formula, 1,800 packages of diapers, 12 tons of shoes, and 55 tons of cold weather clothing.
Six successive prime ministers in Israel have tried to broker a peace deal with Syria but as yet, it has remained elusive, Israel’s archenemy Iran deeply entrenched with the ruling Assad government.
"The determination of Syria’s future and decisions about its destiny must remain in the hands of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition," the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Iran, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad, has provided military, financial, and political support to maintain the former Syrian president's grip on power since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Iran’s backing included sending weapons, financial assistance, military advisors, and elite forces like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as allied militias.
In addition to urging a halt to conflicts, Iran’s statement, which followed the news of Assad fleeing the country, called for the safety of all Syrian citizens, the preservation of religious sites, and the protection of diplomatic and consular missions in accordance with international law.
"Tehran would continue its consultations with key regional stakeholders to promote security and stability in the country," it added.
"The long-standing and friendly relations between the peoples of Iran and Syria are expected to continue with a wise and forward-looking approach, based on shared interests and the fulfillment of international legal commitments," the statement concluded.
Meanwhile, Ahmad Nadri, a member of Iran’s parliament, suggested that the country shift its strategic focus following Assad’s downfall.
He proposed that Iran prioritize nuclear testing and reinvigorate the so-called resistance front, which he views as crucial for Iran’s regional influence post-Syria crisis.
Mohsen Rezaei, a member of the Expediency Council and an IRGC former commander wrote on his X account: "The fate of Syria must be determined by its people. The exploitation of foreign actors will result in nothing but the repetition of the Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq models."
Iran, along with Russia, have tightened their grip on Russia in recent years, both having large swathes of military infrastructure across the country.
Images published by Al Arabiya show Syrians storming the Iranian embassy Sunday, breaking windows, and damaging furniture, in a sign that Tehran's influence is no longer welcome.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed to Tehran Times that diplomats and staff had evacuated the embassy before armed forces arrived. Esmail Baghaei said that all personnel were now safe and in good health.
State-affiliated Iranian media have also softened their language in response to Assad’s fall. Before the collapse, opposition forces were regularly referred to as "terrorists" or "takfiris," but now they are being described as "armed opposition groups" or "militias," reflecting a shift in Iran’s public messaging.
Fars News, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the reasons behind the fall of Assad's government, saying that “the Syrian president did not pay enough attention to Iran’s advice regarding democracy and popular defense."
"The lack of popular support for the government, due to the dire economic situation, the weakening of the army, and corruption, along with the Syrian government's reliance on promises from foreign powers in exchange for abandoning resistance, are among the key mistakes," the government aligned publication wrote on Sunday.
Nadergholi Ebrahimi, a representative from Arak, and Hamid Rasaee, a representative from Tehran, have called for a closed session of parliament to discuss the situation as Tehran faces losing a key stronghold, the route key between Iran and the Mediterranean.
“The parliament needs updated, accurate, and clear information about the situation in light of the current regional circumstances,” Rasaee said.
Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour told Iran International that there appears to be no comprehensive or systematic analysis of the situation in Syria within Iran’s media.
“Some media outlets consider this a victory for Israel, while others view it as an internal Syrian matter,” he noted.
According to Rahimpour, Iran's internal calculations regarding Syria have been so disrupted by the recent developments that the government is struggling to form a clear stance on its position.
Costs of supporting Assad
The Islamic Republic’s support for Assad has come at a high cost. Human losses include over 2,100 Iranian forces killed in Syria, referred to as “Defenders of the Shrine,” and an estimated 7,308 Iranian casualties overall since 2011 when the crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrations turned into a civil war.
Financially, the cost of intervention is staggering. Former Iranian parliament members Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei have separately stated that Iran spent at least $30 billion in Syria, a figure that dwarfs other regional expenditures. This amount equals nearly 140 months of cash subsidies for Iran’s entire population, further fueling domestic frustration over the government’s priorities. However, a government document hacked last year revealed that Syria owes Iran $ 50 billion.
In addition to free oil supplies and loans to Assad's government, the Islamic Republic spent untold billions on its military involvement.
Internationally, Assad’s fall is seen as a significant blow to Tehran. A US official told CNN that the events in Syria mark the collapse of Iran’s broader strategy in the region. President-elect Donald Trump weighed in, suggesting that Assad fled after losing Russian support, framing both Russia and Iran as weakened powers.
The Israeli military announced a deployment in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria, emphasizing a defensive posture without direct involvement in Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for a new Syria that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.
Since 2013, Iran’s presence in Syria has been justified by officials as a mission to protect Shia holy sites from Takfiri groups. However, evidence shows Tehran’s true aim was to bolster Assad’s government, a key ally.
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency admitted in 2020 that the Quds Force had been instrumental in training Syrian forces to suppress opposition, leveraging tactics used during Iran’s own protests.
The Islamic Republic’s involvement also included the recruitment of foreign fighters, such as the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghans) and Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistanis).
With Assad’s government now toppled, the Islamic Republic’s decades-long gamble in Syria appears increasingly costly, both financially and politically, as questions mount about its influence in the region and its ability to sustain its ambitions.
The protests, which ranged from demands for overdue payments and benefits to objections over steep tuition hikes, highlighted the growing discontent among various sectors of society.
On Saturday, hundreds of retired teachers gathered outside Iran’s Parliament in Tehran to demand the payment of their long-delayed entitlements.
Protesters, primarily those who retired in 2021, held 100,000-rial banknotes as a symbolic gesture of national currency's devaluation, chanting slogans such as, “Shout, shout / Against all this injustice.”
Iran's currency has lost 99.99% of its value since 1979, the year the Islamic Republic was established. In 1978, 100,000 rials was valued at $1,428; today, it is worth only 14 cents.
The demonstrators also directed their dissatisfaction toward Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, shouting, “Ghalibaf, have some shame / fulfill our rights.”
The Free Union of Iranian Workers estimated that around 1,000 teachers from provinces including Tehran, Alborz, and Qom participated in the rally.
Protesters condemned the government for failing to fully implement the job classification law, which mandates that retired teachers receive pensions equal to 90% of the salaries of active educators. They also criticized delays in payments, noting that similar demonstrations on November 20 had resulted in no tangible progress.
Students protest steep tuition hikes
Simultaneously, medical students from Azad University marched in protest against tuition hikes during a visit by Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i to the university’s Science and Research campus.
Holding banners students expressed outrage at what they termed astronomical fee increases.
Students from medical, dental, and pharmacy programs have been protesting since October 13 against an almost 200% hike in tuition fees. Despite repeated demonstrations at locations including Parliament and the Ministry of Science, students say that officials have failed to address their grievances.
Azad University President Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi has defended the tuition increases, describing them as natural for a self-financed institution. However, students argue that such hikes ignore their financial realities.
Professors fight for reinstatement
Adding to the wave of protests, 20 dismissed or suspended university professors wrote an open letter to President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday, accusing the government of failing to reinstate them despite prior assurances. The professors said they were removed from their posts for defending academic freedom, not violating any law as government officials have suggested.
In recent years, Iran has witnessed a significant number of university professors being dismissed from their positions. This trend intensified following the nationwide protests in September 2022. Most of the dismissed academics had expressed support for the protests or were regarded as government critics.
Among the signatories were academics from institutions such as Beheshti University in Tehran, Isfahan University, and Shiraz University. The professors called on the government to release a list of reinstated academics, challenging Pezeshkian’s recent claim that many had returned to their posts.
Negar Zeilabi, a history professor at Beheshti University, shared on social media that despite court rulings in her favor, university officials have refused to reinstate her due to external pressure, referring to security agencies. She described the inaction as emblematic of broader failures to uphold justice for academics.
The protests reflect deeper dissatisfaction with systemic mismanagement and unfulfilled commitments across various sectors. Retired teachers face financial insecurity, students are burdened by rising costs, and professors contend with institutional inertia and political interference.