Europeans open talks with new Syrian leadership, dispatching diplomats to Damascus

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, in an interview with Saudi-affiliated Al-Hadath on Sunday, reflected on the shift in regional dynamics, saying Iran must better understand its actions following Assad’s downfall.

“I think Iran will also learn lessons in the new period; we need to help Iran in a constructive way,” Fidan said. He outlined Turkey’s vision for the Middle East as one based on cooperation and respect for sovereignty, adding, “We don’t want Iranian domination, Turkish domination or Arab domination. It’s time for us to come together and establish our own interests, our own order in the region, shoulder to shoulder.”

The foreign minister criticized Assad’s inability to reconcile with his people or rebuild Syria, saying, “Either he [Assad] would have to share power with his people and make peace with them, or he would have to share power with external hegemonic forces that supported him against his people.”

Iran, meanwhile, has reacted strongly to Turkey’s growing influence. On Monday, Kayhan, a hardline newspaper aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of exploiting Syria’s conflict for his own political ambitions.

In an editorial titled "This neighbor is no longer trustworthy” Kayhan alleged that Erdogan seeks to revive the “Ottoman Caliphate” and warned of potential blowback. “Turkey’s gamble in Syria could ultimately destabilize Erdogan’s own regime, just as it did Assad’s,” the paper claimed.

Kayhan also accused Turkey of being the “stage manager of the crisis” since the civil war began in 2012, claiming Erdogan has prolonged instability to serve Turkish strategic goals.

While Kayhan accused Ankara of orchestrating a crisis in Syria, Fidan suggested that Assad’s reliance on external forces, including Russia and Iran, was part of his downfall.

“Of course, when he [Assad] shared this power with Russia and Iran, they fought together, they couldn’t take the decisions they wanted because each country had different interests," he said. "And after a certain point, when Assad failed to reconcile with his people, to bring back millions of people, to provide services to the people already in Syria, to provide basic services, to provide services to the economy, the system collapsed by itself.”

Tehran’s discontent with Ankara was hinted at earlier in Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s speech last week—his first public response to Assad’s ousting.

Though he did not name Turkey, Khamenei referred to a neighboring country as part of what he called a joint American and Israeli plan in Syria. The comments were widely interpreted as a veiled criticism of Turkey’s involvement.

This news analysis comes after Bashar al-Assad in Syria lost his grip on power after support from Iran and its ally Hezbollah were sapped by over a year of conflict with Israel.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, whose tenure is supported in part by Iran-backed armed groups, may now face pressure to prioritize Iraq’s sovereignty over foreign influence according to the daily.

"Iraq remains internally divided over the repercussions of the situation in Syria, with some still supporting intervention at this point. Factions and some actors in the Shiite political scene align with this view, consistent with Tehran’s stance, which has announced the continuation of resistance," wrote Al-Mada.

The Committee to Protect Journalists has said Al-Mada "is seen as one of the only remaining critical newspapers in Iraq".

Operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), these groups wield considerable power over Iraq’s governance, military operations, and energy infrastructure.

Despite their original mandate to combat ISIS, many of the militias have since expanded their activities, frequently targeting US forces and installations in Iraq with rockets and drones, and exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Washington.

The paper also highlighted fears of broader regional destabilization following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a key ally of Iran.

"Political forces have started warning about scenarios similar to Syria’s situation if rapid internal reforms are not implemented," wrote Al-Mada, citing thinktanks advising Iraqi government to distance itself from the poor governance of the Shiite political forces that have held power since 2003.

Tehran’s armed affiliates in Iraq may be weakened by the developments in Syria. The Australian Arab Institute for Strategic Affairs recently warned that Baghdad faces a critical juncture: either curb the influence of Iran-backed militias or risk becoming a target for escalating Israeli and US military operations.

Adding to the uncertainty are concerns about the potential reactivation of ISIS sleeper cells given the security vacuum next door.

“Iraq is trying to maintain a somewhat balanced relationship with Washington and not align itself entirely with Tehran,” Rahim al-Aboudi, a senior official in the National Wisdom Movement, was quoted as saying.

Growing public discontent

Domestically, public anger toward Iran’s proxies has intensified in recent years, particularly after their violent suppression of 2019 anti-government protests which criticized Iranian influence.

Social media has amplified these frustrations, with posts encouraging attacks on the Iranian embassy and measures to end the activities of armed groups backed by Tehran.

“Numerous individuals or fake accounts have called for citizens to arm themselves in opposition to Iran-backed forces,” Truske Sadeghi, a former Iran International correspondent posted on X.

The warnings of instability echo fears of a repeat of Iraq’s tumultuous recent past.

Unlike the ISIS incursions of 2014 which originated from Syria, analysts warn that any future unrest could arise from within Iraq’s cities, fueled by the same grievances that sparked the 2019 protests but on a potentially larger scale.

While Baghdad has reiterated that its borders are secure, the government’s inability to effectively manage the influence of IRGC-backed militias has left the country vulnerable to both domestic upheaval and regional spillovers.

As Iraq navigates mounting international and domestic pressures, its leadership could face a critical choice: assert greater control over Tehran-backed forces or risk a deeper descent into instability.

“Russia and Iran are not your friends, (and) are not helping you if you are in trouble. They left Assad’s regime, and that is a very clear message showing that their hands are full elsewhere and they are weakened,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday, addressing Syria’s new leaders.

During a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Kallas added that the EU wants a stable, peaceful, and inclusive political future for Syria, free from the influence of extremist groups and foreign powers like Russia and Iran.

“Syria faces an optimistic, positive, but rather uncertain future, and we have to make sure that this goes to the right direction,” Kallas added.

Since Damascus fell on December 8 and Bashar Assad fled to Moscow, Syria’s transition has been unexpectedly smooth, with minimal reports of violence or chaos. The interim government, led by former opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), considered a terrorist organization by the EU and US, will govern until March. Arab leaders have called for UN-supervised elections, while the EU plans to send an envoy to discuss Syria's future leadership.

Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said on Monday that Syria’s new leaders must understand that the EU has red lines which should be respected before sanctions on the country are lifted. “We must make sure that there (is) no foreign interference,” he said.

His French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot also told reporters that before any sanctions are lifted or EU aid sent to Syria, some conditions must be met, including a political transition with all Syrian minority groups represented, the respect of women and human rights, and the rejection of extremism.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp said that “regarding the Russian military bases in Syria, we want the Russians out.” 

Syria, affected by decades of Assad family governance, grapples with widespread poverty, high inflation, unemployment and systemic challenges.

Millions have sought refuge abroad, including hundreds of thousands in Europe. While some EU countries have paused new asylum applications for Syrians, support is being extended to those choosing to return voluntarily.

The appointee, Abdulrahman Fattahi—an Iranian-born Sunni cleric and former imam—brings a history of Salafi activism and ideological influence that could help shape HTS’s strategy toward Iran and the Kurdish regions.

Sources close to Fattahi, who withheld their identity for security reasons, told Iran International that his early influence drew criticism from Iranian authorities and eventually led to multiple arrests, culminating in his imprisonment before his departure to Syria in 2015.

Shaped by Salafi teachings

Fattahi’s religious education began in mosques in Mahabad, where he studied Islamic theology under Kurdish clerics. His leanings toward Salafi ideology deepened after he traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan in 1992 to study under Abdulqader Tawhidi, a leading figure in the Tawhid Movement for Iranian Sunnis. Tawhidi’s teachings, rooted in emulating the practices of Salafism, shaped Fattahi’s doctrinal beliefs.

Fattahi, also known as Abu Safiya al-Kurdi, has spent decades advocating Salafi-jihadi ideology. Born in Sulgheh, a village near Mahabad in Iran’s Kordestan Province, his early life and religious studies set the foundation for a trajectory that led from local leadership to regional prominence.

After completing his studies in 1996, Fattahi joined the Islamic Movement of Kurdistan, which maintained ties with Iran’s government. He returned to Iran in the late 1990s, where he became the imam of Ziveh, a village near Mahabad. His Salafi views gained him followers but also drew scrutiny, with Iranian authorities repeatedly detaining him. His last arrest in 2011 resulted in a three-year sentence in Rajaei Shahr Prison near Tehran.

Rise in Syria’s jihadist networks

After his release in 2014, Fattahi left Iran and joined jihadist groups in Syria, where he became a prominent figure in the Movement of Sunni Migrants of Iran. This HTS-aligned faction, formed in 2019, consists of Iranian Sunni jihadists who pledged allegiance to HTS’s predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra.

In HTS-controlled Idlib, Fattahi rose to senior positions, serving as a Sharia judge and Mufti. Video footage shows him delivering fiery sermons in Kurdish, praising figures like Osama bin Laden and denouncing Iran’s Shia rulers as “Rawafid” (rejectors). In these speeches, he vowed to “liberate Iran’s Sunnis from occupation.”

The source who spoke to Iran International detailed Fattahi’s ability to inspire Kurdish jihadists. His rhetoric, the source said, “combines religious authority with political strategy, making him a key figure in HTS’s evolving regional plans.”

Fattahi’s reported appointment as deputy for Iranian affairs to HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani signals a potential shift in the group’s regional strategy.

Al-Joulani recently described Iran’s presence in Syria as a significant threat. He said: “We were able to end the Iranian presence in Syria, but we are not enemies of the Iranian people.”

Fattahi’s Kurdish roots and ideological stance position him to influence HTS’s approach to both Iran and the Kurdish regions. His prominence suggests that HTS is leveraging Iranian Sunni dissidents to consolidate its control in Idlib while countering Tehran’s influence in Syria.

For Tehran, Fattahi’s role represents a direct ideological and strategic challenge. His leadership highlights the enduring influence of transnational Sunni jihadist networks and highlights the vulnerabilities posed by Iranian Sunni dissidents.

As HTS seeks to balance its Salafi roots with pragmatic goals in Syria’s fragmented conflict, figures like Fattahi demonstrate the group’s adaptability.

His ascent could also further complicate Iran’s efforts to maintain its foothold in Syria - a key smuggling route to its military allies in the region and trade route amidst sanctions - while countering the resurgence of Sunni militancy on its borders.

Salafis, an ultraconservative branch of Sunni Islam, emphasize a return to the practices and beliefs of the early Muslim community (the Salaf Salih or pious predecessors) and often view later interpretations of Islamic teachings as deviations.

Their rigid adherence to this ideology has historically put them at odds with Shia Muslims, whom they label as Rawafid (rejectors) for not recognizing the legitimacy of the first three caliphs and for their veneration of Imams. Salafis accuse Shias of deviating from the core principles of Islam, regarding many of their rituals and beliefs as innovations (bid’ah) forbidden in Islam.

This animosity has fueled sectarian tensions in regions where Salafis seek influence, often leading to violent clashes. Militant Salafi-jihadi groups, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, have taken this opposition to an extreme, targeting Shias in their campaigns, excommunicating them (takfir), and justifying violence against them as part of their broader ideological and political objectives. This sectarian divide continues to play a significant role in the dynamics of conflicts across the Middle East.

In addition to the airstrikes on positions in the 23rd Brigade of the Aerial Defense and the headquarters of the 23rd Brigade, targets included missiles depots and launchers, radars at a military airport, and bases in the 107th Barracks on Sunday.

“Violent explosions were heard in Tartus due to consecutive strikes and explosions of ground-to-ground missiles from the warehouses,” the rights group said on Monday.

“These are considered the most violent strikes in the area of the Syrian coast since the start of the airstrikes in 2012,” they added. SOHR said no casualties were reported.

Since the beginning of Syria's civil war in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria to quash Iran’s influence as it used the Arab state to smuggle supplies to its military allies in the region such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The strikes reported by the SOHR in Tartus were picked up by Israel’s earthquake monitor late Sunday night, although there has been no confirmation of the connection.

A 3.1 magnitude temblor, said to be 20km deep, was reported by the Geographic Survey of Israel’s seismology department at 11:49 pm Sunday night, with its epicenter about 28 kilometers (17 miles) off the coast of the city of Banias.

Volcano Discovery, an earthquake monitoring site, also reported that it had received four reports from Syria and Cyprus for the earthquake reported at 12:48am on Monday, said to have been felt in up to approximately 20 km (12 mi) away. It said the quake was 5km deep.

While Israel continues to reiterate it has no interest in conflict with Syria and never comments on strikes, since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, it has carried out a series of strikes on weapons facilities and research centers in preventive action as the new Sunni leadership takes control, including destroying leftover chemical weapons facilities from the Assad government.

Israel has troops inside the buffer zone and slightly beyond, as it continues to act to prevent a repeat of the October 7 attacks last year which saw Iran-backed Hamas infiltrate the country, killing over 1,100 people and taking more than 250 hostages.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a statement that the latest developments in Syria increased the threat to Israel, "despite the moderate image that the rebel leaders claim to present".

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday: "We have no interest in a conflict with Syria”, actions in Syria intended to "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border," he added.