Iran stuck in uncertainty as hardship mounts
Morad Vaisi
Iran International political analyst
Iran International political analyst
Iran is in a state of limbo as no one can know whether the country is moving toward negotiations or war - a choice which rests with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
This unpredictability has stalled or significantly slowed many economic, political, and social developments. The only process that continues unabated is repression, restrictions, and the violation of citizens’ rights.
Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian, who remains loyal to Khamenei, has effectively become an even weaker version of his predecessors, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani—a trajectory that is fueling growing public anger. Iranians are no longer merely dissatisfied; they are outraged, and this anger is evident in daily conversations.
Six months into Pezeshkian’s administration, no positive changes have taken place in the country, and all eyes are on the standoff between Khamenei and Donald Trump.
Khamenei’s recent remarks have done little to clarify the Islamic Republic’s path. Some analysts interpret his statements as a sign of readiness for negotiations, while others see them as a continuation of the regime’s anti-US policies.
This uncertainty has deepened the country’s economic stagnation, with repression being the only policy consistently pursued. Iran’s currency has lost more than 30% of its value since early September, and inflation of consumer good has spiked to 50%, based on media reports from Tehran.
At the same time, Trump’s stance on negotiations remains unclear. He may set conditions that the Islamic Republic finds difficult to accept. His broader Iran policy also remains ambiguous, with his only clear position being opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
This prolonged state of anticipation and suspension has not only paralyzed key affairs but has also worsened the country’s economic crisis and living conditions.
Iran’s oil exports, already under heavy sanctions, continue covertly, but they are expected to decline with Trump’s return.
Meanwhile, much of the oil revenue is squandered by IRGC commanders and the ruling system's insiders.
The stock market, investments, and production remain in complete uncertainty, while prices for essential goods continue to rise. The dollar and gold coin exchange rates have reached record highs, while people struggle to afford basic necessities, including even potatoes and onions.
In this situation, many Iranians have concluded that whether negotiations take place or not, the Islamic Republic remains unbearable for them.
Years of negotiations, agreements, and repeated failures have left people exhausted and without hope for improvement. The past two decades have shown that regardless of the outcome of talks, their daily lives remain in crisis.
People now understand that a deal or no deal will make little difference in their fate. Even if sanctions ease and Iran resumes oil sales, the revenues will not benefit them. Instead, the money will either fund regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas or be used by officials to buy loyalty from security forces or be lost to corruption.
For this reason, many believe that reform is no longer possible and that the only solution is the end of the Islamic Republic. This sentiment is increasingly visible both in public discourse and online spaces.
For many, it no longer matters whether Iran-US negotiations succeed because past experience has proven that the Islamic Republic will not change. When weakened, it negotiates and compromises to ease international pressure; when strengthened, it resumes its aggressive policies.
This widespread distrust is the result of years of unfulfilled promises and the system’s exploitation of domestic and international crises.
Now, more than ever, people are both furious and disillusioned. This sentiment is resonating across society and is increasingly reflected in the sharper and more direct language used against Khamenei himself.
