The untold story of the last US mission to Iran under the Shah

Netanyahu's visit followed Hungary’s formal decision to withdraw from the International Criminal Court earlier in the day. The Israeli leader is sought under an ICC arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Gaza.

“This is important for all of civilization as we fight this battle against barbarism,” Netanyahu said. “We are fighting a similar fight for the future of our common civilization.”

He said that civilization itself is “under assault from radical Islam” spearheaded by Iran.

Iran-backed Hamas militants launched an attack on Israel on Oct. 7 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages to Gaza.

Israel's ongoing incursion into Gaza has killed more than 50,000 people, according to Palestinian health authorities, with nearly a third of the dead under 18.

Tehran and its allies were dealt significant setbacks last year, including Israeli attacks that severely weakened Iran's ally in Lebanon Hezbollah and helped dislodge the Assad dynasty in Syria, Tehran's oldest Arab ally.

On Oct. 26, Israel launched air strikes on Iran which it said knocked out Iran’s Russian-supplied air defense system.

Since Donald Trump took office in the United States for his second term as president, Tehran has issued repeated warnings against further attacks.

It has also conducted continuous military drills since early January. After reviving the "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions from his first term, Trump on Sunday mooted bombing Iran if it does not agree to a new nuclear deal.

The head or Iran's judiciary issued a condolence message on Thursday saying Hossein Ali Nayeri had been bedridden due to a lengthy illness, attributing the sickness to his years of work.

"Certainly, this ailment was due to many years of service to the holy system of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the judiciary," Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei was quoted as saying by the judiciary's Mizan news agency.

Nayeri's death comes after a court employee in January shot dead two veteran Supreme Court judges, Mohammad Moghiseh and AliRazini, before killing himself. Initial news reports at the time mentioned a third judge being injured but officials said an injured bodyguard was the only other victim.

Born in 1956, Hossein Ali Nayeri served as the religious judge of Tehran's Evin Prison from 1983 to 1989 and was appointed by the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini.

During this period authorities routinely executed political prisoners. Nayeri was a key member of a judicial panel - later known as the "Death Committee" - which condemned thousands of prisoners to death in the summer of 1988.

Following his tenure at Evin Prison, Nayeri served as the Deputy Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from 1989 to 2013 and as the head of the Judges Disciplinary Court from 2013 to 2022.

On Wednesday, a hacktivist group said the Iranian police intelligence agency has issued thousands of gun permits to senior state officials to fend off assassination.

In the past Iranian year, which ended on March 20, a portion of the country’s oil exports was allocated to the armed forces—particularly the IRGC—under the pretext of “strengthening national defense.” This year not only has the military’s share of oil export revenues grown significantly, but direct government budget allocations to the armed forces have also sharply increased. Additionally, the law expands the authorization for crude oil transfers to other entities, including those involved in nuclear programs.

Meanwhile, the budget law allows IRGC-affiliated entities—such as Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters—as well as institutions linked to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office, like the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO), to acquire state assets as a means of settling government debt owed to them.

Military's share of oil

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government has projected daily oil exports of 1.85 million barrels for the current fiscal year, which began on March 21. Of this, one-third—valued at $12.4 billion—will be directly allocated to the armed forces and their specialized military projects, a figure that has tripled compared to the previous year. The remaining oil revenues, along with total gas export earnings, estimated at $33.5 billion, will be divided among the government budget, the National Development Fund, and the National Iranian Oil Company.

Another key point is that the government has set the exchange rate for oil allocated to the armed forces at roughly 600,000 rials per euro—while the euro trades at around 1.14 million rials on the open market. This disparity creates a major financial windfall for the military, enabling them to sell the oil and convert the proceeds at market rates, effectively pocketing the difference.

Moreover, the military has priority in oil sales, meaning any decline in national exports will primarily impact the government’s share. If the armed forces are unable to export their allocated share, the government is obligated to compensate them with equivalent cash payments.

Despite the government’s target of exporting 1.85 million barrels of oil per day this fiscal year, data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler—obtained by Iran International—shows that the average daily delivery of Iranian crude to Chinese ports, Iran’s sole oil customer, stood at approximately 1.34 million barrels in the first quarter of 2025. That’s down from a daily average of 1.5 million barrels in 2024.

Additionally, the Trump administration has launched a campaign to reduce Iran’s oil exports to “zero”, and several tanker tracking and energy consulting firms previously told Iran International that Iranian oil exports could drop by about half a million barrels per day in the coming months.

Kpler also reported this week that Chinese independent refineries, known as "teapots," appear to be pausing new orders of Iranian crude oil following Washington's first imposition of sanctions on a Chinese refinery, Shandong-based Shouguang Luqing Petrochemicals.

In addition to the armed forces, the Iranian government has authorized five other entities—including those involved in “nuclear energy projects”—to sell oil directly.

At least part of these funds will likely be directed toward nuclear activities unrelated to electricity production, like sensitive and controversial uranium enrichment that the US and its allies object to.

Moreover, beyond revenues from direct oil sales under the so-called “strengthening national defense” initiative, the military and security forces are also set to receive 10% of the government’s general budget for personnel salaries.

Transfer of state assets to the military and supreme leader's office

Amid a lack of transparency surrounding the economic activities of the IRGC and institutions under the Supreme Leader’s control, unofficial reports suggest these entities dominate roughly half of Iran’s informal or “shadow” economy. Over the past two decades, much of the government’s privatization program has veered off course—rather than transferring assets to the true private sector, state-owned properties have been handed over at heavily discounted rates to the IRGC and Supreme Leader–affiliated institutions.

These entities also play a major role in Iran’s infrastructure development. Yet the exact amount the government owes them for state-assigned construction projects remains unclear. What is clear, however, is that the 2025 budget law specifically authorizes the IRGC-linked Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters and the Supreme Leader–controlled Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO) to receive up to two quadrillion rials (approximately $2 billion) worth of state assets as repayment for outstanding government debts.

This year, the government plans to sell 15.8 quadrillion rials in state-owned assets, of which 13% is earmarked for transfer to the military and institutions tied to the Supreme Leader—if budget targets are met. Given the weakness of Iran’s private sector, it is widely expected that, once again, entities under the IRGC and Supreme Leader’s control will acquire the lion’s share of these assets.

Jalal Sadatian, who previously served as Iran’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, told the ILNA news website in Tehran: “It is important to recognize that there are serious enemies of Iran’s national interests who do not want to see improved relations with Europe and the United States.”

In recent months, numerous media outlets, political figures, and former officials have cautioned against relying on Russia as a mediator between Tehran and the West, accusing Moscow of seeking to keep Iran within its own geopolitical orbit.

“Maintaining a balanced foreign policy is essential to safeguard the country’s national interests and security,” Sadatian said, adding, “We must remain aware of the severe risks posed by sanctions in order to navigate this critical phase successfully.”

The former diplomat pointed out that the dynamics of the Middle East have shifted dramatically, citing Israeli strikes on Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. He emphasized that the Islamic Republic has effectively lost its military foothold in Syria.

Sadatian also noted a shift in Iraq’s political landscape—one that appears unfavorable to Iran. He highlighted growing pressure from senior Iraqi officials and Shiite religious leaders on pro-Iran militias to either disarm or formally integrate into the Iraqi army.

On the prospect of renewed talks with the United States, Sadatian warned that Tehran must remove “serious and illogical impediments rooted in domestic political disputes.” He added, “We must be aware of the serious dangers posed by sanctions in order to navigate through this phase successfully.”

In a televised interview on Monday, Ali Larijani suggested that if Iran were attacked and public demand for nuclear weapons emerged, even the Supreme Leader’s religious decree (fatwa) against weapons of mass destruction could be reconsidered. Nonetheless, he insisted that Iran is not pursuing nuclear arms and remains committed to cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Khamenei’s ruling was presented by Iranian officials at the International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament in April 2010. But such religious decrees could be altered or overturned given the ‘requirement of time and place’ as many historical instances prove.

Many hardliners and ultra-hardliners in Tehran—typically staunch critics of the moderate conservative Larijani—have embraced his remarks on social media.

“Had any other political figure raised the possibility of the Islamic Republic moving toward nuclear weapons, they would have been accused of warmongering or bluffing. Dr. Larijani’s decision to bring it up was a wise move and a timely act of sacrifice,” wrote Vahid Yaminpour, a prominent ultra-hardliner and former state television executive, on X.

“The Iranian nation wants nuclear weapons,” declared Seyed Komail, an ultra-hardliner social media activist with 27,000 followers, in response to Larijani’s remarks.

Abdollah Ganji, former editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper, dismissed concerns over potential US or Israeli strikes, arguing that Iran’s nuclear facilities are too deeply fortified to be destroyed. He warned that an attack could lead to Iran's withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and retaliation against US military bases and Israel.

However, Larijani’s remarks stand in contrast to official government positions. Soon after his interview, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reaffirmed on X that Iran “under no circumstances” would seek, develop, or acquire nuclear weapons, emphasizing that diplomacy remains the best course of action.

Nour News, an online outlet believed to be affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), also weighed in, questioning whether the US is prepared to face the consequences of further escalation.

Larijani’s statements have drawn strong criticism as well. Detractors argue that such rhetoric provides the US and Israel with an excuse to justify pre-emptive military action. “The Leader’s fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons is absolute and without exceptions,” posted cleric Saeed Ebrahimi on X, adding that raising the prospect of nuclear bombs would only give Iran's enemies justification for aggression.

Mohammad Rahbari, a prominent political commentator in Tehran, suggested that Larijani’s remarks signaled Iran may be alarmingly close to nuclear capability—precisely the kind of pretext Israel has been seeking for a preemptive strike. Senior reformist journalist Mohammad Sahafi also warned that such nuclear posturing could alienate potential allies who might otherwise support Iran in the face of Western pressure.

“Larijani's comment was unprofessional and came from a position of weakness; it had no merit. It also gave the other side an excuse to have strong reasons for pre-emptive action and to shape a global consensus. In short, if we are concerned about our homeland, we should not take such a reckless stance,” Hemmat Imani, an international relations researcher in Iran, wrote.

Others speculate that Larijani’s remarks are part of ongoing indirect negotiations with Washington. “Ali Larijani’s ‘warning’ should be seen as a calculated move in high-level negotiations,” suggested Iranian environmental journalist Sina Jahani.

Describing Larijani’s remarks as “a form of nuclear blackmail the Islamic Republic has used as a tool of threat for years,” Arvand Amir-Khosravi, a Norway-based academic and monarchist, wrote on X that the threat was “nothing more than a propaganda ploy to gain leverage in potential negotiations,” adding that pursuing nuclear weapons would invite military retaliation rather than enhance Iran’s security.

The United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported in November 2024 that, as of September 26, Iran was not actively building a nuclear weapon. However, last month, Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), described Iran’s nuclear program as extremely ambitious and wide-ranging. He warned that the country's uranium enrichment had reached near weapons-grade levels and was alarmingly close to the threshold for acquiring nuclear weapons.