Lavrov brought no US message to Tehran, Iranian FM says

The unsigned 2,000 word article on the government's news website, IRNA, argued that the postponement of a meeting of European foreign ministers with Iran and critical remarks made by the head of IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog, shows pressure from Washington.

“Has Europe once again settled into the safe zone of inaction, completing Donald Trump's puzzle and allowing him to dominate the scene?", the article said.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday that a planned ministers-only discussion on Iran was postponed due to the absence of key foreign ministers.

“On Iran, we were supposed to have discussions, ministers-only format, regarding Iran today but because very important foreign ministers were missing, so we postponed this,” Kallas said.

IRNA accused Europe and the IAEA of making contradictory statements about Iran’s nuclear program, arguing that Tehran has the right to unlimited uranium enrichment, as international conventions do not prohibit it. The article also blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for orchestrating international opposition to Iran.

The article then went on to suggest “confidence building” measures between Europe, the IAEA and Iran, acknowledging that for three decades the two sides have spelled out their positions.

“The JCPOA formula offers the most cost-effective and efficient way to build trust," the letter on IRNA stated, while many consider the deal outdated and even dead.

"Through a series of strategic calculations and negotiations among the parties involved, the 2015 JCPOA became one of the most significant agreements of the past century. These dynamics can be replicated if the European Union abandons its outdated carrot-and-stick approach and engages in transparent dialogue," it added.

Last week, amid Iran's continued denials of building a nuclear weapon, the IAEA chief said the UN body was prepared to help Iran prove it did not seek nuclear weapons.

"We want to make ourselves available, providing technically sound alternatives to eliminate the possibility that Iran develops a nuclear weapon, to prevent Iran, or to help Iran prove that they don't want to develop a nuclear weapon," Rafael Grossi told reporters at Japan’s National Press Club.

However, only last year, Grossi warned that Iran, which has limited IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities since 2021, was "weeks not months" away from a nuclear weapon.

Trump withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement in May 2018, calling it a bad deal and demanding more concessions from Tehran. He then imposed strict economic sanctions, which the Biden administration was accused of not fully enforcing.

However, earlier this month, the US president announced the revitalization of these sanctions under his “maximum pressure” policy. He underlined that his main demand is for Iran never to acquire nuclear weapons.

Iran, facing a serious economic crisis, needs to reach an agreement with the Trump administration if it wants to reduce or eliminate the sanctions, but its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this month banned talks with Washington.

Iranian officials insist that they will not negotiate under Trump’s pressure.

"I don't want to negotiate with Iran either," Graham told Iran International, when asked about foreign minister Abbas Araghchi's comments on the subject.

In a press conference with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Tehran, Araghchi ruled out direct negotiations with the United States over the country’s disputed nuclear program as long as the sanctions persisted.

"Iran's position in the nuclear talks is completely clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions," he said. "There is no possibility of direct negotiations between us and the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner."

The South Carolina Republican is a foreign policy hawk who maintains a close relationship with Trump. Graham co-sponsored a bill this month calling for denying Iran a nuclear bomb by any means necessary, days after US President Trump appeared to downplay a military option.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon but the United States assesses that it has stepped up enrichment in order to quickly attain the capability should it wish.

Trump this month reimposed the policy of tough sanctions on Iran from his first term, aimed at driving Iran's oil exports down to zero.

Still, Trump called any reports that a US-Israeli strike would deal Iran a devastating blow "greatly exaggerated" and said he much preferred a deal.

Republican lawmakers appeared less charitable, with West Virginia Senator Shelley Moore Capito telling Iran International that Tehran cannot be believed.

"The way I see it, Iran is a country of terrorism that foments terror certainly acrpss the the Mideast and around the world. I can't imagine that I would trust anything they would say."

Florida Senator Rick Scott said denying Iran a bomb was a main priority.

"I don't think we can allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, and so I think we've got to do everything under our power to make sure they don't have nuclear weapons."

Looking from afar, it appears that Khamenei is banking on what he perceives as resilience of the Islamic Republic—the system, as he usually calls it.

If the system can withstand the storm, there may be a chance to negotiate in circumstances less treacherous and toward terms more favorable.

A historical overview could be enlightening.

The 2015 nuclear deal, officially named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was presented as a diplomatic breakthrough by all sides involved. It only came through, however, after heavy sanctions by the United Nations and the US under Barack Obama.

Khamenei reluctantly allowed talks, first secretly then publicly, calling it "heroic flexibility", and eventually nodded through the ensuing agreement, essentially accepting a halt to Iran’s nuclear activities while preserving the nuclear infrastructure.

But how should we read Khamenei's opposition this time? Is he truly and absolutely, as he claims, against negotiating with Trump?

His history of dual positioning suggests otherwise.

Saving the system at all costs

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, Khamenei’s opposition to a potential detente with Washington is not absolute.

He may not authorize talks if he believes sanctions, even tightened ones, are not detrimental to his system’s survival, or if he thinks other world powers could throw him a lifeline.

But what if he sees no such sign of relief on the horizon?

The Islamic Republic is arguably in a weaker position now than it has ever been, both internally and externally, with no clear outlook for a revival of the Resistance Front of armed allies in the region that it all but lost in the past year.

This reality may compel Khamenei to allow talks as much as it could force him not to, since he wants to negotiate from a position of power. In short, the unfavorable circumstances call for negotiations but the terms of the potential agreement forbid it.

It is Catch-22. What is to be done if you perceive the concessions required of you in an agreement as existentially threatening as refusing to negotiate in the first place?

Flexing over the fence

Khamenei’s answer to that question appears to come in two parts, either limited but aggressive confrontations, or, dialogue through intermediaries. The aim is to alter the conditions of negotiation or muddle through Trump’s second term.

Iran’s supreme leader will not hesitate to announce a variation on the theme of heroic flexibility, If circumstances align with his expectations.

If Khamenei were entirely opposed to negotiations, he would have fully withdrawn from the JCPOA and escalated into full confrontation. Instead, he has halted further uranium enrichment and adopted a defensive regional stance to strengthen his bargaining position and shift negotiation conditions in his favor.

Turning to domestic power dynamics, all factions appear to be singing from the Khamenei sheet, rejecting Trump’s proposal for talks.

Even then, the hardline principalists continue to criticize the relatively moderate administration of Masoud Pezeshkian because while the president himself is fully in line, some figures close to him utter out-of-line views from time to time.

The hardliners—and Khamenei himself—reject the moderates’ de-escalation and diplomacy as strategic solutions. They will keep doing so until they hit an impasse or arrive at waters calmer for roundtable.

In their view, hard power, including the now diminished Resistance, is the country’s primary tool in dealing with external pressure.

It is also imperative to national security. The continued attacks on Pezeshkian aim to prevent him from politically capitalizing on the situation and enhancing the moderates’ position within the system.

Khamenei would likely carry on sitting on the fence, ruling out talks with Trump in words but not deeds. Even in words, Iran’s supreme leader has been markedly measured when talking about the US president.

The Supreme Leader knows, better than everybody perhaps, that he may need to change tack at any moment.

"Iran and Russia have appropriate capacities to strengthen cooperation with each other, and we are determined to strengthen the interactions between Tehran and Moscow," Pezeshkian said.

"Iran and Russia have similar views on regional issues and seek to strengthen their regional and international cooperation", he added.

Moscow was dealt a boost this month as Washington under Trump emphasized the swift ending of the war Ukraine and restoration of bilateral ties.

Tehran, mired in economic malaise, faces a trickier choice dealing with Trump, who has ruled out allowing Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb and said he wants a deal which Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ruled out.

Pezeshkian also urged for expediting the implementation of agreements, especially a Comprehensive Strategic Agreement between the two countries.

Tehran and Moscow signed a long-term agreement in March 2001 which was initially set for a ten-year term but was extended twice, each time for five years. Despite prior discussions, similar promises to finalize a renewed treaty have remained unfulfilled.

Lavrov, who conveyed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s greetings to Pezeshkian, said: “Iran and Russia have many common interests in continuing effective regional cooperation with each other.”

In a press conference following separate discussions with Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out direct negotiations with the United States over the country’s nuclear program.

"Regarding Iran's nuclear issue, we will move forward and coordinate our positions in cooperation with our friends in Russia and China," Araghchi said.

"Iran's position in the nuclear talks is completely clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions. There is no possibility of direct negotiations between us and the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner," he added.

Tehran’s envoy to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, also said the discussions specifically covered the nuclear issue and joint approaches in the field.

"Iran's position in the nuclear talks is completely clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions. There is no possibility of direct negotiations between us and the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner," Abbas Araghchi said.

He was speaking at a joint press conference with Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on a visit to Tehran.

"Regarding Iran's nuclear issue, we will move forward and coordinate our positions in cooperation with our friends in Russia and China," Araghchi added as the trio grow ever closer.

In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions or JCPOA, and imposed 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Tehran, practically reducing Iran’s oil exports to less than 500,000 barrels per day and blocking the revenues in foreign banks. 

Lavrov's visit also follows a new wave of US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, the country’s primary source of revenue.

He arrived in Tehran for discussions with his counterpart a few days after Moscow and Washington held talks in Saudi Arabia.

Earlier this month, Trump reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero—reviving Washington’s hardline approach from his first term.

However, in spite of Tehran's position, Lavrov remained optimistic. "The capacity for diplomacy regarding Iran's nuclear program still exists," state-media quoted him as saying.

Moscow and Tehran have deepened their defense ties since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, a partnership that has increasingly drawn Western ire. China too, has become an ever stronger ally, the three conducting multiple military drills together.

Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Lavrov as a follow up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on negotiations to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, according to a statement by the US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.

"President Trump wants to stop the killing; the United States wants peace and is using its strength in the world to bring countries together," Bruce said. "President Trump is the only leader in the world who can get Ukraine and Russia to agree to that."