Calls for US talks grow as Khamenei adviser urges 'maximum patience'

Ali Khamenei will use reports of the new crescent moon sighting—hilal in Arabic—from various regions of the country on Friday or Saturday to determine the start date of this year’s Islamic fasting month of Ramadan.

According to Kazem Kukaram, spokesperson for Iran's Amateur Astronomy Society, the chances of spotting the crescent moon on Friday evening are slim.

Given its position in the sky, the moon will be visible for only about fifteen minutes after sunset—weather permitting. As a result, Ramadan is unlikely to start on Saturday, meaning Sunday will most likely mark the beginning of the holy month.

Shia grand ayatollahs, both in Iran and abroad, traditionally insist that the crescent moon must be sighted with the naked eye for the observation to be considered valid.

Yet, Khamenei and other grand ayatollahs allow the use of binoculars and other simple optical devices for moon-sighting, diverging from traditional Shia practice, which rejects modern astronomical calculations and advanced telescopes in determining the lunar calendar.

Khamenei’s special taskforce

Since becoming the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader in 1989, Khamenei has maintained a dedicated moon-sighting taskforce.

Initially composed of 700 members in 150 groups, this year’s reports indicate that 100 groups have been deployed across the country.

Taskforce members, primarily clerics well-versed in Islamic moon-sighting criteria, will repeat this process at the end of Ramadan to determine the holiday of Eid al-Fitr.

The official declaration of Eid and Khamenei's customary sermon during Eid prayers in Tehran are broadcast on state-run radio and television.

However, disagreements occasionally occur. The most notable recent instance was in May 2020, when several grand ayatollahs, using their own criteria, declared a different date for Eid. This resulted in multiple separate Eid prayers instead of a unified, state-sponsored gathering.

In recent years, there has reportedly been pressure on other grand ayatollahs to follow Khamenei's lead on the matter of beginning and end of Ramadan to reinforce the Supreme Leader's religious and political authority. 

The impact of Ramadan on daily life in Iran

While some people fast from dawn to dusk, others must be careful not to break the fasting month regulations, including a ban on eating, drinking, and smoking in all public spaces, including inside private vehicles, even if they are exempted from fasting by medical or other reasons.

Law enforcement agencies strictly enforce these rules, with violators facing penalties ranging from 10 days to two months in prison or up to 74 lashes under Iran’s Islamic Penal Code.

Restaurants, cafes, and street vendors are barred from serving customers before sunset. Businesses that fail to comply face serious consequences including temporary closure and cash fines. Some establishments have been allowed to discreetly offer take-away food over the last years.

Ramadan and Norouz holidays coincide

As in the past two years, Ramadan will partly coincide with the ancient Iranian New Year holidays—Norouz in Persian.

This overlap occurs because Iran follows a solar calendar, while the Islamic calendar is lunar and approximately ten days shorter each year.

In recent times, many ordinary Iranians have been deeply impacted by severe economic hardship. The overlap of Ramadan and Norouz is expected to further strain the hospitality industry and other businesses, many of which are already on the brink of bankruptcy due to a sharp decline in people's ability to afford travel and dining out during the Norouz holidays.

Zeidabadi's remarks came after Pezeshkian reaffirmed his commitment to the promises he made during his June 2024 election campaign. Pezeshkian frequently repeats this claim when confronted with accusations of breaking or neglecting his promises.

The commentator remarked, “Pezeshkian explicitly promised to lift sanctions on Iran, guarantee social liberties, and end the ban on social media. He now needs to clarify which of these promises he still stands by.”

Although Pezeshkian has consistently advocated for negotiations with President Donald Trump’s administration, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prohibited such talks in early February. As a result, Pezeshkian aligned with this stance, stating that negotiating with Trump is not a realistic option.

He added: "When I talk with the people, I realize that Pezeshkian's popularity is declining and those who had voted for him feel frustrated. We have not seen any initiative from him for a long time now, and this is dangerous for him and the country."

Earlier, Iranian media on both ends of the country's political spectrum had summed up what Pezeshkian had promised to voters.

Mehr News Agency, affiliated with conservative clerics, highlighted that Pezeshkian made 10 promises to revive Iran's struggling economy. These included preventing gasoline price hikes, stabilizing the stock exchange, reducing inflation, addressing deteriorating living standards, establishing a unified exchange rate, permitting the import of foreign vehicles, and promoting social justice.

Mehr also highlighted Pezeshkian’s promise to guarantee freedom and dignity for Iranian women. He had stated, “Just as pre-1979 governments failed to eliminate the hijab, we cannot impose it on women.” However, mandatory hijab remains a deeply contentious social and political issue in Iran.

Even Reformist newspaper Etemad, which backs the president, drew attention to Pezeshkian’s economic promises under six key areas: dismantling the centralized government-controlled economy, opening up to international trade and diversifying trading partners, combating economic cronyism and ending special privileges for the well-connected, fostering a competitive market, enhancing living standards, and supporting the stock exchange to encourage public participation in the economy.

Other media outlets also highlighted Pezeshkian’s civil rights promises, including protecting women from harassment by hijab enforcers, promoting women to key government positions, ending government censorship of the internet and social media, safeguarding university students and professors from dismissal, allowing Sunni Muslims to hold top positions, encouraging political participation by ethnic minorities, lifting censorship on books and the press, and combating discrimination and injustice.

Critics have increasingly pointed out that most of Pezeshkian's promises remain unfulfilled, with minimal progress on key issues such as the hijab and internet censorship.

For example, Zeidabadi noted that while the controversial Hijab Enforcement Bill has been suspended, it has not been fully abolished.

Meanwhile, addressing remarks from both critics and supporters who argue that resolving Iran’s nuclear and other disputes with the United States is essential for tackling the economic crisis, Zeidabadi urged Pezeshkian to clarify his stance. He asked, “If negotiating and reaching a deal with Trump is impossible, then what is your alternative solution?”

The commentator also criticized Pezeshkian’s administration for its lack of strategy and decisiveness, questioning, “If the government lacks the authority to address these issues, why should it continue to exist?”

"We have to win the peace," Starmer said. "And that's what we must do now. Because it can't be peace that rewards the aggressor or that gives encouragement to regimes like Iran. We agree history must be on the side of the peacemaker, not the invader. So the stakes, they couldn't be higher."

Trump, speaking alongside Starmer, said it was necessary to secure a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

The visit comes ahead of Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky slated for Friday.

On Sunday, Zelensky said Russia launched 267 attack drones on Ukraine, marking the largest single assault since the use of Iranian-made projectiles began following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"On the eve of the third anniversary of the full-scale war, Russia launched 267 attack drones against Ukraine—the largest attack since Iranian drones began striking Ukrainian cities and villages," he said in a post on X.

On Wednesday, the US Treasury levied sanctions on six entities in Hong Kong and mainland China it said facilitate the acquisition of parts for armed drones produced by Iran, as part of Washington's "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran.

“Iran continues to try to find new ways to procure the key components it needs to bolster its UAV weapons program through new front companies and third-country suppliers,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement on Wednesday, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles.

The US state department said Washington was determined to thwart the program.

"These programs produce missiles and drones that Iran uses against our allies and exports to its terror proxy groups and Russia," it said in a statement.

Iranian drones have repeatedly been deployed in attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and other civilian targets. The Shahed 136 drone is typically launched alongside cruise and ballistic missile attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

The Revolutionary Guards are a paramilitary and intelligence organization which helps arms and trains Shi'ite armed groups in the region.

US President Donald Trump designated the IRGC a terrorist organization in 2019 and ordered the assassination of its commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad the next year.

The European Union has so far held off on such a designation for the IRGC as a whole though it has designated individuals in the organization. None of the EU member states list it as a terrorist organization.

"To defeat the IRGC, which is responsible for sponsoring terrorist attacks against innocent civilians across the globe, the United States cannot act alone," congresswoman Claudia Tenney, a co-sponsor of the so-called Encouraging the EU to DESIGNATE Resolution, said in a statement.

"It's time for our EU allies to step up and follow suit .. this will send a strong message that the West is united against the IRGC's malicious actions and that we will hold them accountable for their vile acts of terrorism," the New York Republican added.

The EU has designated the Palestinian armed movement Hamas and the military wing of Lebanese Hezbollah terrorist organizations. Both groups, along with the Houthi group in Yemen and various militias in Iraq are backed by IRGC.

A full terrorism designation imposed on the IRGC would enable European law enforcement greater police and investigatory powers to prosecute Iranian officials and organizations.

The classification could also have profound dent European-Iran trade relations, as the IRGC controls a large portion of the Islamic Republic's economy.

“With Tehran more isolated than ever, now is the time to tighten the screws— we must not ease up or give the IRGC room to regroup," congressman Brad Schneider said.

"The US and Canada have already acted, and I urge our European allies to join us," the Illinois democrat said.

While the Trump administration has promised "maximum pressure" on Iran, saying the Islamic Republic cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, 72% of the Democrat voters and 82% of Republicans opted in the poll "to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons facilities."

The poll’s wording assumed that Iran possesses nuclear weapons and did not specify which of Iran’s nuclear facilities are being used for weapons production.

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and the United States last publicly assessed that Tehran's enrichment levels aimed to give it the ability to rapidly build a bomb but it had not yet chosen to do so.

When asked if the US should support Israel in airstrikes these facilities, 57% overall said yes, 45% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans.

The IAEA has not confirmed that Iran's current nuclear program has a military aspect. However, it has previously raised concerns about Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons activities and more recent tensions over uranium enrichment approaching weapons-grade levels.

Despite concerns over undeclared nuclear materials and Iran’s lack of full cooperation, no official UN or IAEA report states that Iran is actively developing a nuclear weapon today.

The February survey was carried out on 2,443 registered voters, the results gauging public opinion, with an overwhelming majority showing a massive approval rating for the second term of President Donald Trump.

While Trump has promised a policy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran, he has also made clear his preference for diplomatic channels over military.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday: ”Iran's position in the nuclear talks is completely clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions.

"There is no possibility of direct negotiations between us and the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner.”

In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, and imposed 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Tehran, practically reducing Iran’s oil exports to less than 500,000 barrels per day and blocking the revenues in foreign banks.

Last month, Trump said he hoped a new deal over Iran's nuclear program meant the United States would not have to support an Israeli attack on Iran.

"It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step ... Iran hopefully will make a deal, and if they don't make a deal, I guess that's okay too,” he said during a press conference at the Oval.

However, this week, Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar has warned that a military option to stop Iran gaining nuclear weapons may be the only way forward.

Speaking to POLITICO, he said “we don't have much time". Only last year, the UN’s nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, warned that Iran was “weeks not months” from a nuclear weapon.

"I think that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table," Sa’ar said, as Iran has already enriched enough uranium for what he said was “a couple of bombs”.