Iran's president criticizes US sanctions, apologizes for tough winter

Brigadier General Nozar Nemati, deputy commander of Iran’s Army Ground Forces, said that Iran’s military remains on high alert. “The armed forces, especially the Army, are always ready to defend the ideals of the Islamic Republic and protect the country’s borders,” he told IRNA on Saturday.

His comments came just hours after US President Donald Trump revealed that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, offering negotiations but warning of military consequences if talks fail over Iran's nuclear program.

"I hope you're going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing for them," Trump told Fox Business Network in a segment of the interview broadcast on Friday. "There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily or through a deal. I would prefer to make a deal".

Later on Friday, Trump told reporters at the Oval Office, “We are at the final moments with Iran,” adding that “something’s going to happen very soon.”

The letter was swiftly rejected by an official outlet of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), dismissing it as a psychological operation. Iran’s UN mission in New York also stated it had received no such letter.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking on Friday, had accused Israel of trying to pull the US into a regional war. “It is Israel’s desire to involve other countries in war. It is Israel’s desire to draw America into war,” Araghchi told AFP, warning that US intervention would leave Washington “extremely vulnerable.”

Amid the growing tensions, Nemati reaffirmed Iran’s border security efforts, noting that the country has reinforced its defenses and remains in coordination with IRGC forces. “Our forces are stationed across all critical border areas, working in complete harmony to ensure security,” he said.

Iran has also continued large-scale military drills, including Zolfaghar 1403, which last month showcased its naval, air, and ground combat capabilities.

Trump’s remarks come as his administration escalates its economic pressure campaign on Iran. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined a renewed “maximum pressure” strategy aimed at cutting Iran’s oil revenues and further devaluing its currency.

While the US has been pushing for resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq, talks to resume pumping crude through Turkey have collapsed for the second time in a week, official sources confirmed to Reuters.

The breakdown extends a two-year deadlock that has stalled crude flows from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

It also complicates President Trump’s strategy of boosting Iraqi oil supply to keep global prices in check while simultaneously increasing pressure on Iran by cutting off its access to cheap crude.

"There is strong insistence from the US side on ensuring the success of the negotiations by any means," a US government official close to the talks told Reuters.

For Baghdad, however, the standoff is part of a larger dilemma. As Trump revives his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, Iraq finds itself squeezed between two powerful allies—Washington and Tehran.

Not only is Iraq under growing pressure to restart oil exports, but also to curb Iran’s access to its financial system and restrict militia activity—moves that, in Washington’s view, would make Iraq more independent from Tehran.

Yet, for Iraq to fully align with US demands is unrealistic, given the 2,500 US troops still stationed in the country and last year’s $430 million in US military and economic aid.

Washington exerts financial pressure on Iran via Iraq

Beyond oil, the US is also tightening its grip on Iraq’s financial system in an effort to sever Tehran’s economic lifelines.

Last week, at the US Treasury’s request, Iraq’s central bank blocked five more private banks from accessing US dollars, according to Reuters. The move is part of a broader campaign to limit Tehran’s access to hard currency.

Additionally, Trump’s administration is reviewing all existing sanctions waivers that allow Iran to benefit economically, including the waiver that permits Iraq to purchase Iranian electricity and gas. If revoked, Iraq would be forced to find alternative energy sources or risk blackouts.

Iraqi leaders, however, appear to be pushing back slightly.

In an interview with Al Hadath, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein acknowledged US pressure but rejected the idea that Baghdad would fully align with Trump’s anti-Iran strategy.

“The United States proposed measures to increase pressure on Iran, but Baghdad is committed to balancing its relationships with both Washington and Tehran,” he said.

For now, there are no signs that Trump will escalate pressure immediately, but his unpredictability leaves Baghdad weighing not just whether it can rein in Iran’s influence—but whether it wants to.

“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.

The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.

"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."

"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.

After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.

It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.

How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK

The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.

That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.

Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.

“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.

The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.

The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.

Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.

Shifting tectonic plates

Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.

Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.

Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.

“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.

One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.

“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.

“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”

Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine

Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.

Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.

“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.

Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.

Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.

"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.

"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.

The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.

“We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office. “We are at final moments with Iran. Something’s going to happen very soon."

There’ll be some interesting days ahead, that’s all I can tell you. You know, we’re down to final strokes with Iran,” he added.

He also blamed former US President Joe Biden’s policies for strengthening Tehran financially, saying that Iran was “stone cold broke” during his presidency but had since amassed “$300 billion” in oil revenues.

“Oil builds up fast. It’s a nice, nice living if you have a nice little well. And they do, they have a lot of nice little wells, right?” he said.

Trump again argued that the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel "would have never happened” under his leadership. He also said that Iran had been prepared to reach a deal with the US before the 2020 election but changed course after he lost.

“I think that I would have had a deal within one month after the rigged election of 2020,” he said. “They were all set to make a deal. And then when I lost, they saw this person who’s a stupid person, very stupid person. And they said, let’s not make a deal. And they were right. He took the sanctions off. They became rich under Biden.”

While he said he preferred a diplomatic resolution, he implied that other options remained on the table.

“Hopefully we can have a peace deal. But the other will solve the problem.”

Earlier, Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei offering talks toward a deal on its nuclear program but warned that the alternative was military intervention.

Tehran's UN mission in New York said no letter from Trump has been received.

“The amount of rainfall in Tehran province since the start of the current water year has been the lowest in 57 years,” head of Tehran's Water and Wastewater Company Mohsen Ardakani said on Friday.

The four reservoirs supplying Tehran's water are only six percent full, he added, urging the capital's residents to bring down use.

Water consumption has surged as Iranians embark on their traditional extensive household clean-up before their New Year on March 20th.

On March 1, the city hit a record 48,000 liters per second in consumption—a 20 percent increase despite the cold weather.

“This kind of surge is something we’ve never seen before,” Tehran's water company said in a statement.

Beyond Tehran, much of Iran is struggling with severe water shortages, with nationwide rainfall dropping by 45 percent compared to last year and dam inflows down 29 percent from the five-year average.

Iran has been classified as “extremely high water stress” by the United Nations, which means the crisis may bring about lasting economic, environmental, and social consequences if the trend continues.

Protests over water and its allocation are common in Iran, especially in the country's arid central regions like Isfahan, where farmers blame the government for the mounting crisis.

The situation has also fueled regional tensions, with Iran accusing Afghanistan’s new-built Pashdan Dam of restricting critical water flow to its eastern provinces.