Trump envoy says Iran cannot get nuclear bomb, urges diplomacy

Will he demand a complete halt to uranium enrichment, or permit Iran to purify uranium to a low level, such as 3.65%? The JCPOA, signed during the Obama administration, set that exact limit.

Enrichment and centrifuges

Tehran is now rapidly enriching uranium to 60%, having accumulated 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% as of February 26. That’s an increase of 92.5 kilograms (203.9 pounds) since the IAEA’s last report in November. The current stockpile can easily be sufficient for further enrichment to produce six nuclear bombs.

Iran maintains that it has the right to enrich uranium as part of its civilian nuclear ambitions. While 3.65% enrichment is used for peaceful energy purposes, 60% has no credible civilian application and is just one step short of weapons-grade enrichment at 90%.

A closely related issue is the number and type of enrichment machines—Iran’s centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, Iran was limited to 6,104 first-generation centrifuges, with no use of advanced models. Today, it operates more than 8,000 centrifuges, including more advanced IR-6 machines, which were explicitly banned under the deal.

Key questions remain unanswered: How many centrifuges, if any, would the US allow Iran to keep? Would decommissioned machines be permitted to stay in the country under international monitoring? Would Washington demand that most, if not all, be dismantled? Could it ask Iran to transfer them to a third country, such as Russia?

These questions are central to understanding what Trump’s plan might be for denying Iran a path to nuclear weapons. So far, no clear answers have emerged.

Is Trump’s plan a total nuclear ban or verification?

If talks resume and the US agrees to let Iran retain some enrichment capacity, a new agreement may not look so different from the JCPOA that Trump abandoned in 2018, calling it a “bad deal.” The key distinction, however, could lie in permanence: a new deal might cap Iran’s enrichment capabilities indefinitely, unlike the JCPOA’s temporary restrictions under sunset clauses.

Still, there is at least a political difference between a permanent ban on all enrichment and formally recognizing Iran’s right to enrich—however limited that right may be.

There is also the issue of somewhat differing statements coming from the President and some of his top officials. According to Axios, Trump’s letter to Ali Khamenei included a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear agreement and warned of consequences if Iran expanded its nuclear program. The letter was described by sources as “tough” in tone.

However, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, framed the message differently in an interview released Friday on The Tucker Carlson Show. Referring to the letter, he said: “It roughly said, I'm a president of peace. That's what I want. There's no reason for us to do this militarily. We should talk. We should clear up the misconceptions. We should create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your nuclear material.”

This tone stands in stark contrast to statements by the Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor, who have called for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program—not just verification.

Multilateral or bilateral talks?

The Obama administration, building on the approach of the Bush era, dealt with Iran in coordination with European allies while also involving Russia and China in the JCPOA negotiations. This multilateral strategy gave international legitimacy to the pressure on Tehran and, for a time, resulted in UN-imposed economic sanctions—until the 2015 agreement was signed and sanctions were subsequently lifted.

However, this approach also gave Iran some room to maneuver, as China and Russia provided support during the JCPOA negotiations. The temporary nature of the agreement and its allowance for Iran to retain its uranium enrichment capability may have stemmed from the fact that the US was not only negotiating with Tehran but also balancing the interests of Beijing and Moscow.

The question now is whether the Trump administration will face pressure to once again include Russia and China in any future talks—or whether it will insist on negotiating directly with Tehran, without outside involvement.

Iran held consultations with Russia and China earlier this month and would certainly prefer to have diplomatic backing in a multilateral setting.

Both Russia and China have signaled that any negotiations should focus solely on Iran’s nuclear program, excluding other US demands such as restrictions on ballistic missiles or curbing regional influence. Iran will almost certainly seek to involve both powers—especially Russia—believing that President Vladimir Putin may hold some sway with Trump.

Although bilateral talks may be preferable from the US perspective, the reality remains that if Washington seeks UN endorsement for any future agreement, it will need the backing of both Russia and China.

Another JCPOA?

Although the Trump administration has issued an ultimatum of “negotiations or else” to Tehran, it remains unclear whether it intends to impose strict demands for dismantling key elements of Iran’s nuclear program or enter into bargaining over critical issues such as the right to uranium enrichment, the level of enrichment, and the number and type of centrifuges.

In the latter case, and if Iran is able to salvage its right to enrichment, the resulting agreement will be somewhat similar to the 2015 JCPOA.

"Combat readiness and combat capability are our priority, because it is the order of the Supreme Leader," said Alireza Tangsiri in an interview with ILNA news agency on Sunday.

Tangsiri also elaborated on the Navy's plans to incorporate artificial intelligence into its weaponry, saying, "We must definitely be equipped with artificial intelligence, and this is a necessity for our work, which is happening."

He added, "The flag of this work, thank God, is in the hands of the Supreme Leader, and the knowledge of this work is in the hands of the Supreme Leader, and God willing, the dear young people will continue this work."

His announcement comes as the United States prepares to significantly increase its naval presence in the Middle East, a move directly tied to escalating tensions with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region next month, a rare deployment intended to bolster US strikes against the Houthis, whose primary benefactor is Iran.

The buildup follows persistent Houthi attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, which the group frames as a response to the Israeli war in Gaza.

These attacks, which began in November 2023, have included missile and drone strikes on over 100 vessels, resulting in the sinking of two ships and the deaths of four sailors.

The extended deployment of the USS Harry S. Truman and the expedited arrival of the USS Carl Vinson will provide US commanders with increased capacity for patrols and strikes.

According to Asharq Al-Awsat, Qaani’s message was also passed on to Yemen’s Houthis via intermediaries in Iraq.

Multiple meetings were held during Qaani’s visit, most of them in the Iraqi capital, according to reports received by Iran International.

According to Iraqi outlet Shafaq News, Qaani arrived in Baghdad last Wednesday for high-level talks with several key actors.

Among those in the talks were leaders of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-aligned Shia political parties; commanders of armed factions linked to Iran; members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of mostly Shia paramilitaries integrated into Iraq’s security forces; and Iran’s ambassador to Iraq, the IRGC linked Mohammad Kazem Al-Sadegh.

“Iran has a big problem to bring supplies and physical support to Gaza now because it’s closed so nobody can get anything inside, like ammunition,” said Shlomo Mofaz, the head of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Research Center in Israel

Speaking to Iran International, he said: “Maybe some things are being smuggled with the aid, or food, or from Egypt by UAVs, but mainly they have a problem. The main focus of Iran is the West Bank, where there are a few ways they are supporting Hamas and other groups, mainly from Jordan where there is a long border and no fence in many places.”

Since Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 mostly civilians and taking 251 hostages to Gaza, the Israeli military has locked down the strip’s borders amid the longest Gaza war since the Islamist group took control of Gaza in 2007.

After several weeks of ceasefire, last week, Israel resumed military operations in Gaza in a bid to put pressure on Hamas to release the dozens of remaining hostages in the strip.

In 2022, now assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh told Al Jazeera that his group had received $70 million in military help from Iran. "We have rockets that are locally manufactured but the long-range rockets came from abroad, from Iran, Syria and others through Egypt," he said.

The US State Department estimated in 2020 that Tehran’s support for Palestinian terror groups, including Hamas, reached $100 million a year.

“The smuggling to the West Bank starts in Syria to Jordan but since the change in regime, it’s a bit harder there too as Israel has more control over what’s going on in southern Syria, but there are still some groups continuing,” added Mofaz, a leading intelligence expert in Israel.

However, financial aid is continuing through the likes of Bitcoin so Iran-backed armed groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank can buy arms on the black market.

He explained that much of the activity involves collaboration with Arab criminal groups inside Israel, who help smuggle ammunition into the West Bank. While some weapons are also assembled using commercially available materials, he noted this is less significant.

He added that Iran continues to smuggle dollars, but doing so has become more difficult. With no IRGC presence currently in Syria, the supporting infrastructure has been greatly reduced since the fall of the regime.

Just last month, Israel's defense minister announced that its war on Iran-backed groups in the occupied West Bank could go on as long as another year as Tehran refocuses its efforts in the wake of the Gaza war.

Speaking about the operation named 'Iron Wall, Defense Minister Israel Katz said: "We will not return to the reality that existed in the past. We will continue to clear refugee camps and other terrorist hotbeds in order to dismantle the battalions and terrorist infrastructures of extremist Islam that were built, armed, financed and trained by the Iranian axis of evil."

Mofaz said that from the Israeli side, security and military agencies have been working hard in the West Bank. “The intelligence is very good, much better than it was in Gaza before the war,” he said.

Overall, Mofaz says Iran’s allies, known as the ‘axis of resistance’, in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza have been significantly weakened, aided by the fall of the Assad government in Syria which has taken away a major military stronghold for Iran abroad.

“Iran has less air defense to defend from US and Israeli airstrikes after Israel’s last attack,” Mofaz said. "The change in the regime in Syria is another issue. The routes on the ground to Lebanon have been closed. By air, that’s also difficult from Damascus now.

The IRGC's influence has been significantly curtailed since Assad's ousting from Syria. Israel has repeatedly targeted the Syria-Lebanon border, particularly the tunnel network, and the Lebanese army now controls the country's borders following the US-France brokered November ceasefire.

As Iran explores Iraq and Turkey as alternative routes, these options are drawing increased attention, particularly after Israel exposed the Turkey route and warned against its development.

Regional experts broadly agree on the weakening of the so-called axis. However, Arman Mahmoudian, a GNSI research fellow and USF lecturer, argued in a January Stimson Institute article that a weakened Iran could increase the nuclear threat.

”There is growing concern that a weakened and increasingly vulnerable Iran, governed by a survivalist regime, may see no alternative but to weaponize its decades-long nuclear program,” he warned.

“While the Axis of Resistance is now significantly weakened, its diminished state still presents considerable dangers for the United States’ position in the Middle East and the broader stability of the region. A fragile Iranian regime, desperate to survive, may become an even greater source of instability.”

The gatherings in Fras Province and the religious city of Mashhad were marked by dancing and anti-government slogans, as well as expressions of support for the former Pahlavi monarchy.

Kamran Mirhaji, the Fars provincial prosecutor, said Sunday that legal cases had been opened against several participants and that further action would follow the completion of investigations.

During the New Year’s celebrations, crowds at popular tourist sites—including Persepolis, the tombs of national poets Hafez and Ferdowsi, and the Omar Khayyam mausoleum—were seen dancing and chanting anti-government and pro-Pahlavi slogans.

Videos circulating online showed crowds at Persepolis chanting "Long live the Shah." At the tomb of Ferdowsi, attendees were heard chanting slogans such as "The tyrant is overthrown, the Shah is coming home," "This is the final battle, the Pahlavi is returning," and "Woman, life, freedom.”

Hassan Hosseini, the governor of Mashhad, said on Thursday that a small number of people who disrupted the New Year's ceremonies had been identified and would face what he called appropriate judicial action.

Additionally, the director of the Tus cultural heritage site announced the closure of the Ferdowsi tomb complex on the Ramadan days, coinciding with the anniversary of the first Shia Imam's death.

In Neyshabur, large crowds also celebrated the New Year at the Khayyam mausoleum, where attendees chanted "Reza Shah, bless your soul."

Similar gatherings with chanting and singing of Iranian songs were reported at other tourist sites.