China and Russia back Iran amid renewed US pressure

This apparent change came shortly after Tehran acknowledged receiving a letter from President Donald Trump, which reportedly outlined the terms of a possible agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and, potentially, other issues, including Tehran’s regional proxies.

As these developments gain momentum, many seem to have overlooked Iran’s scheduled participation in trilateral negotiations with Russia and China in Beijing on Friday. Meanwhile, Russia’s offer to mediate between Tehran and Washington remains on the table, with neither side having rejected it thus far.

Araghchi’s suggestion that indirect negotiations would be a “natural solution” for reaching a deal with Washington may also indicate that Iran is aiming to buy time. The strategy could be to push past the October deadline for the reactivation of the UN trigger mechanism, which would reinstate all previous international sanctions against Iran. Additionally, Iran may be looking ahead to the 2028 US election, hoping to outlast the Trump administration, with which it remains reluctant to engage in direct talks.

Araghchi’s suggestion of Oman as a possible mediator may lead observers to overlook why Qatar, the UAE, and possibly Russia have been sidelined as potential mediators—and why Tehran is now proposing indirect talks in Muscat.

Qatar’s leaders may already be preoccupied with issues related to Gaza, Syria, and Afghanistan, leaving little capacity to take on another complex diplomatic challenge. At the same time, Iran’s handling of Qatar’s recent mediation efforts suggests a degree of distrust. When the Qatari emir delivered a message to Tehran earlier this month, Khamenei largely dismissed it, instead questioning why Qatar has not released Iran’s oil revenues from South Korea frozen in Doha under a US arrangement.

Meanwhile, Iran is unlikely to trust the UAE as a diplomatic intermediary, given its close alliance with Saudi Arabia and the ongoing territorial dispute over three islands in the Persian Gulf.

Furthermore, many politicians in Tehran, including Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former head of the parliament's Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, as well as several centrist and conservative newspapers such as Jomhouri Eslami, have repeatedly questioned Moscow's goodwill as a mediator. They argue that Russia is primarily focused on its own interests rather than genuinely helping Iran navigate a major foreign policy and economic crisis.

Notably, Nour News, a media outlet close to Iran’s Supreme Council of National Security, revealed that Russia refused to deliver Trump's message to Tehran, reportedly objecting to its content. Instead, Moscow passed the task on to the UAE.

At the same time, Iranian officials see indirect negotiations as an effective way to buy time and wait for a more favorable international climate. With the Iranian delegation in one room and US representatives in another, and Omani mediators shuttling messages between them, the process could stretch on for months, if not years. Meanwhile, shifting developments and ad-hoc decisions in Tehran and Washington could continuously delay and extend the talks.

Iranian media have made it clear over the past week that China and Russia have little interest in finalizing a deal between Tehran and Washington. Meanwhile, the low level of officials participating in the upcoming talks further diminishes any hope for a breakthrough.

Instead of sending a senior negotiator like career diplomat Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran is dispatching Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi to Beijing—a lower-profile figure with less influence to advance the discussions.

Whether Iran can navigate multiple diplomatic channels to buy time remains uncertain. Its ability to do so depends on whether it can manage the country’s worsening economic crisis, stave off a major socio-political upheaval, and counter the growing pressure from European countries, some of which have signaled their intent to activate the UN trigger mechanism—all while the clock continues to run out.

Khalid Mehdiyev said one of the defendants in the Russian mob group, Rafat Amirov confessed to him that Iran's government was behind the plot to murder the Iranian-American journalist.

Jacob Gutwillig, a federal prosecutor said in court this week: "The defendants were hired guns for the government of Iran."

Alinejad has been of the strongest and most vocal critics of Tehran's human rights abuses and persecution of women and minorities.

Since she fled Iran in 2009, she has had a target on her back.

“I was trying to get the easy way to kill her," the bearded Mehdiyev confessed in the Manhattan courtroom.

Prosecutors have said Iran’s government offered to pay Amirov, 45, and Omarov, 40, about $500,000.

Amirov and Omarov, both fellow natives of Mehdiyev’s Azerbaijan, are on trial for the murder-for-hire and attempted murder in aid of racketeering. The duo both pleaded not guilty.

Mehdiyev, who said he was paid $30,000 for the failed assassination attempt, is cooperating with the federal government after pleading guilty in an effort to lessen his potential sentence.

Watching and Waiting

Mehdiyev got dangerously close to Alinejad.

He parked outside of Alinejad's Brooklyn home for two days, watching her every move, and even slept in his car, ordering doordash meals to his vehicle.

The self-proclaimed Russian mobster watched and waited for his target.

The would-be assassin told the court he tried to open Alinejad's door, took videos and photos of himself touching her flowers in her front yard to prove to his mobster associates he was getting close to his mission, and asked his mob boss for a bike to conduct more surveillance.

In bone chilling testimony, Mehdiyev said even tried to hire a woman to lure Alinejad outside her home. He said he told the woman that his target owed him money and once she was in plain sight from the door opening, he would take care of the rest and pay her his share.

“I was there to try to kill the journalist,” said Mehdiyev.

He said in court Thursday that he saw Alinejad outside her Brooklyn home in at least on occasion. The shocking revelation made even more significant since Alinejad was already under FBI protection at the time.

But his assassination plans failed with some errors.

Once Alinejad spotted the stranger lurking around her home, peering into her window and wandering around her, she reported him to the FBI.

Mehdiyev ran a stop sign as authorities trailed him, leading to his arrest and the discovery of a loaded Ak-47, with one in the chamber and a ski mask.

The ski mask, he calmly said in court was "to cover my face when I was going to kill the journalist."

A past of kidnappings and murder-for-hire plots

Mehdiyev faced a grueling cross-examination that focused on his extensive criminal past.

Elena Fast, Omarov’s defense attorney, asked if he was ever caught for committing crimes in other parts of the world. He allegedly committed crimes in 7 countries around the world, but has only been convicted in the U.S.

Mehdiyev told the court he once tried to orchestrate a kidnapping in Ukraine as he was also managing a pizza shop called Peppino’s.

His resume included alleged kidnappings, extortion and murder-for-hire plots.

Green Card for an Informant (S Nonimmigrant)

Mehdiyev was born in Azerbaijan and left for the United States in 2017 after fear of rival gangs emerged in his home country.

He said he was offered by one of his mob bosses, known as a Vor in Russian, to run the gang division in the U.S. Mehdiyev said his goal was to one day became a Vor himself, and move up the ranks from his position.

He entered the U.S. on Nov 4, 2017 and later applied for political asylum, claiming that he would be tortured by Azerbaijani authorities. Mehdiyev admitted it was a lie as Fast, Omarov’s defense attorney said he was wanted in Azerbaijan for crime.

As a witness who has agreed to cooperate with the US government Mehdiyev's entire immediate family including his father, mother and brother are living in the United States with a S greencard, provided to informants.

Meantime, Alinejad hasn't seen her family in more than 15 years. Even Alinejad's brother was imprisoned in Iran in an attempt to put pressure on her to cease her activism.

As a witness, Alinejad cannot discuss the case, but posted to X on Wednesday how profoundly grateful she was to US law enforcement for saving her life.

“In a federal court, he admitted he was sent by the Islamic Republic to kill me for the ‘crime’ of speaking out,” Alinejad wrote on X.

“The Iranian regime continues to use the proceeds from the nation’s vast oil resources to advance its narrow, alarming self-interests at the expense of the Iranian people,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Treasury will fight and disrupt any attempts by the regime to fund its destabilizing activities and further its dangerous agenda.”

US President Donald Trump reinstated his so-called maximum pressure campaign of sanctions on Iran last month in a bid to bring oil revenues upon which the state relies to zero and force Tehran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program.

The sanctions announced on Thursday also included entities in China and India the treasury accused of owning and operating vessels involved in the trade of Iranian oil - dubbed a "shadow fleet" by Washington.

Iran's oil ministry criticized the move and said it would circumvent US sanctions.

"The sanctions on Mohsen Paknejad are due to his extensive efforts to sell Iranian oil. He has repeatedly emphasized that Iranian oil exports will never stop and that the US policy of maximum pressure has failed," it said in a statement.

"In recent years, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to bypass sanctions and continues to sell its oil in international markets through various methods," it added.

The US treasury explained its targeting of Paknejad as a means of combatting Iran's security apparatus.

"Iran’s oil industry ... generates tens of billions of dollars annually for the regime."

"Under (Paknejad's) leadership, Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum has allocated billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil to the Iranian armed forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian Law Enforcement Forces, both critical instruments in the regime’s tools of oppression," it added.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have tightened control over the country's oil industry and now manage up to half of exports, according to Reuters report late last year, funding its military capabilities and those of armed allies across the Middle East.

The US state department too announced sanctions on several Indonesia-based entities it says facilitate Iranian oil shipments.

Washington has been ramping up sanctions on Iran's oil exports since the latter days of the Joe Biden administration, pinching Iran's economy and deepening financial hardship for its people which could threaten unrest.

US competitor China, the world's top oil importer, is Iran's customer for over 90% of its oil exports and has continued to buy the supplies through a world-spanning network of traders and shell companies dodging US-led sanctions.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon but a United Nations watchdog said this month that its uranium enrichment levels had sharply risen to levels which in principle could be refined further into six atomic bombs.

Trump said last week that Iran must reach a nuclear agreement or face a military intervention, in comments lambasted by Iran's Supreme Leader as an attempt to bully and dominate Iran.

During an interview with the Iran newspaper, Araghchi, when asked about using indirect channels like those in Muscat, said, "Yes, it is not a strange method, and it has happened repeatedly throughout history."

"Therefore, indirect negotiation is feasible... What is important is that the will to negotiate and reach a fair and just agreement comes up in equal conditions, and the form of it does not matter."

His remarks coincides with a trip by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, who delivered a letter from US President Donald Trump to Iranian authorities on Wednesday.

However, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a public address on the same day, dismissed the possibility of talks, saying that Trump's offer was aimed at deceiving public opinion.

"The US president's claim that 'we are ready to negotiate with Iran' is a deception aimed at misleading global public opinion," Khamenei said in a speech to student supporters, who, as usual, repeatedly chanted "Death to America!"

Talks of Muscat mediating between Tehran and Washington follows earlier reports of Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi's visit to Tehran in December, during which he was said to have carried a message from the Sultan of Oman to President Masoud Pezeshkian.

At the time, Araghchi denied that any message from Washington had been relayed. Oman has historically served as a diplomatic channel between Tehran and Washington.

Araghchi added that multiple countries are now involved, with close consultations taking place with Russia and China. "Negotiations are ongoing indirectly, and the channel with the three European countries remains open," he said.

Araghchi stressed that while the United States must ultimately lift sanctions, Iran will only engage in direct negotiations free from pressure and threats, and with assurances that national interests will be protected.

"If we enter negotiations in a situation where the other side is imposing maximum pressure, we will enter negotiations from a position of weakness and will not achieve any results," Araghchi explained.

Trump reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign in February, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero—reviving Washington’s hardline approach from his first term.

In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions or JCPOA, and imposed 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Tehran, reducing Iran’s oil exports to less than 300,000 barrels per day and implementing international banking sanctions.

Araghchi added, "This is not a matter of stubbornness or idealism, it is a matter of expertise. The other side must be shown that the pressure policy is not effective, so that we can sit at the negotiating table on equal terms."

New idea

Araghchi also said a new idea has been proposed to resolve outstanding nuclear issues between Iran and UN's nuclear watchdog, adding that the two sides are currently examining the proposal to resolve remaining disputes.

"We are cooperating with [IAEA chief Rafael] Grossi and the IAEA, and a new idea has been put forward to resolve the issues, which we are currently reviewing," he said, without elaborating.

Earlier this month, Grossi said Iran has significantly increased its supply of near-weapons-grade uranium in just three months, highlighting Tehran's unique position as the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching to such levels.

"Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U‑235 has increased to 275 kg, up from 182 kg in the past quarter," Grossi said in his statement to the agency’s Board of Governors on Monday.

Since 2021, when Iran began enriching uranium at higher levels, it has also significantly restricted the UN watchdog's ability to monitor its nuclear activities, including banning one third of the inspectors since 2023.

On Wednesday, the UN Security Council convened amidst escalating pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program.

The United States urged the Council to take decisive action, accusing Iran of flagrantly defying resolutions and violating IAEA safeguards. The call came as Britain signaled its willingness to trigger the so-called snapback of UN sanctions if Iran fails to curb its uranium enrichment activities.

The meeting, requested by six Security Council members—France, Greece, Panama, South Korea, Britain, and the US—focused on Iran's persistent non-compliance with IAEA requests for information.

The urgency of the situation was underscored by the approaching October 18th deadline, after which Britain, France, and Germany will lose their ability to unilaterally initiate the reinstatement of international sanctions.

These nations have already informed the Council of their readiness to utilize the snapback mechanism to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

According to Der Standard’s report citing business documents, the company Blue River Holding GmbH also pursued a plan to export luxury cars to Iran.

“The documents obtained indicate that (Ramin) Mirfakhrai acts or acted as a confidant of a clique of Viennese citizens of Iranian descent. He likely maintains extremely close ties to the internationally isolated Iranian regime,” wrote Der Standard.

Contacted by Der Standard, Mirfakhrai denied any wrongdoing.

“I have not conducted or been involved in any legally or morally questionable transactions,” he said. Mirfakhrai acknowledged he had worked for Blue River in the past but said he no longer has ties to the company.

Mirfakhrai first gained public attention in 2019 as the initiator of the so-called Ibiza video, a secretly recorded meeting on the Spanish resort island which allegedly exposed corruption within the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), leading to the downfall of Austria's coalition government.

His commissioning of the covert filming, Mirfakhrai said at the time, was a civic gesture aimed at exposing abuses of power.

Der Standard's investigation suggested that at the same time Mirfakhrai was involved in business dealings with individuals connected to Iran’s economic and political establishment.

One of these ventures was Blue River Holding, which held a license from Spar International, based in Amsterdam, to operate Spar supermarkets in Iran.

The company is also suspected of facilitating visa access for high-ranking Iranian officials and exploring ways to set up a payment system between Iran and Europe that could circumvent international sanctions.

Documents reviewed by Der Standard show that in 2021, Blue River sought a €10 million loan to fund its Iran-related projects.

A controversial luxury car deal

In late 2021, Blue River attempted another project—this time involving the export of luxury cars to Iran.

The company sought to establish a business partnership between Bentley and the Iranian conglomerate Zar Group, a Tehran-based company best known for food production but increasingly expanding into other sectors.

Zar Group's CEO, Morteza Soltani, has been publicly associated with Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His son, Arash Soltani, was honored by the Basij militia, a paramilitary force linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as a so-called Top Jihad Manager in late 2023.