Iran's Revolutionary Guards have tightened control over the country's oil industry and now manage up to half of exports, funding its military capabilities and those of armed allies across the Middle East according to a Reuters report.
Western officials, security experts, and Iranian trading sources cited by the news agency said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now control up to half of the country's oil exports, up from around just a fifth three years ago.
The Islamic Republic, despite harsh sanctions by the United States and its allies, generates more than $50 billion a year in oil revenue - a key lifeline for foreign currency.
Iran's entire oil industry has now fallen under the sway of the Revolutionary Guards, Reuters reported citing over a dozen interviewees, including the ships covertly transporting sanctioned crude to logistics and front companies facilitating oil sales.
China is Iran's top customer and China Haokun Energy, a front company operated by former Chinese military officials, remains an active conduit for the sales despite being slapped with US sanctions last year.
The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, shared insights derived from intelligence documents and tracking ships linked to the IRGC.
Last week, Iran International reported that the Revolutionary Guards are attempting to sell oil stored in China ahead of tougher sanctions expected under US President-elect Donald Trump, according to an informed source.
The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Iranian authorities have instructed the IRGC to sell the sanctioned oil stored at Dalian Port in northeast China through intermediary firms.
The IRGC’s increasing dominance in the oil sector strengthens its overall influence across Iran's economy and complicates the effectiveness of Western sanctions, as the organization is already designated as a terrorist group by the United States and its allies.
According to Iran’s national budget, at least $12.6 billion from oil exports is allocated to the IRGC. This revenue enables the group to sell oil primarily to Chinese buyers and fund its military capabilities and allied militias in the Middle East.
Iran circumvents US and allied sanctions by rebranding its oil, often using tankers from a dark or shadow fleet operating in Malaysian and Singaporean waters.
These tankers relabel Iranian oil as originating from Iraq, the UAE, Oman, or Malaysia, after which it is delivered to China's smaller independent refineries, known as teapots.
While Shandong Port in China remains the primary hub for this rebranded oil, tanker-tracking data shows a notable increase in shipments to Dalian Port this year.
In response, the US Treasury Department recently blacklisted 45 tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil to Shandong. Despite these measures, over 100 large vessels in the dark fleet remain unsanctioned, according to data from Vortexa, continuing to transport Iranian oil to China, albeit at reduced volumes.
During a roundtable discussion hosted by Sazandegi newspaper, conservative politician and Expediency Council member Mohammad Reza Bahonar, former senior lawmaker and centrist politician Hossein Marashi, and Mahmoud Vaezi, a senior aide to former president Hassan Rouhani, carefully avoided directly naming Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the ultimate authority responsible for the country’s major shortcomings.
They spoke cautiously, as some of their critical remarks touched on highly sensitive topics, including constitutional changes and political reforms. The veteran political insiders would not have voiced such criticisms publicly two or three years ago, before Iran's regional influence began to wane and its economic situation reached a critical stage.
They highlighted issues including the government's lack of resources, largely due to massive expenditures in the Middle East aimed at undermining Israel—spending that was undertaken without the consent of the Iranian people or parliament (Majles), as they noted.
Marashi said, "Iran's priority should be addressing its economic crisis," and "politics in Iran should not be left to military organizations," likely referring to the central role the Revolutionary Guards play both in political and economic spheres.
He added: “The government’s priorities remain focused on outdated ideological issues, such as enforcing the hijab on women and restricting access to information on the Internet, rather than tackling the country’s pressing economic crises.”
These failures have left the nation struggling in darkness and cold since November, as the oil-rich country continues to fall short in producing sufficient natural gas and electricity in generating sufficient oil export revenues.
A huge part of the country's income from oil is kept outside the government's treasury and under direct supervision of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard.
On December 16 all government offices and schools in 26 of the 31 Iranian provinces were shut down due to blackouts, power shortages and consumption of pollutant fuels in many power plants.
Without elaborating on what was wrong with the Iranian Constitutional Law, Bahonar said that “all the articles of the constitution can be revised except a few that are about the essence of Islam and the nature of the political system as a republic.”
His remarks likely implied that institutions such as the Guardian Council, which hinder free and fair elections, could be dismantled, and that articles granting extraordinary powers to the Supreme Leader could be revised. This would help curb unnecessary spending on religious institutions and costly military ventures abroad.
Elsewhere in their debate, the three politicians said that many of Iran's problems are caused by flaws in the structure of its political system. Without saying how the current system has led to a dictatorship under the Supreme Leader, they called for a democratic political system like those in Japan, Pakistan, Germany, France and the United States.
Marashi criticized Pezeshkian for taking pride in lacking a clear plan for his government or a political party to advance his ideas. He also pointed to the Islamic Republic’s core doctrine, which centers on its ongoing struggle against what it calls “arrogant powers”—a concept now largely synonymous with anti-Americanism.
He argued that “this doctrine cannot drive meaningful progress and must be reformed, much like how China abandoned its rigid ideological approach to achieve development.”
Marashi went on to question the extensive powers of Iran's Judiciary and the absence of judicial independence. He also criticized the current Majles for consistently obstructing the government’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities.
Additionally, he emphasized that Iran’s economy has been held hostage by its nuclear program for the past 19 years. Highlighting the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, he said: “Even maintaining our allies in power depends on prioritizing the economy.”
At the same time, perhaps in an effort to absolve President Masoud Pezeshkian of responsibility for the current crises, three other conservative figures, in reports published by Nameh News website, emphasized that "the Pezeshkian administration has inherited the current economic and political problems from previous governments."
"Iran and Syria share historical and friendly relations which continue to grow based on mutual interest and international legal principles," Amir Saeid Iravani said during a United Nations Security Council session.
"Iran remains steadfast in its constructive role, working with United Nations regional partners and the Syrian people to achieve lasting peace and stability in Syria and the wider region."
The collapse this month of President Bashar al-Assad's government delivered a major blow to Iran's influence in the Middle East.
For years, Tehran poured resources into maintaining the Axis of Resistance—a regional alliance aimed at countering Western and Israeli influence. Syria under Assad served as a linchpin in this strategy, acting as a vital link for Iranian support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a launchpad for Tehran's broader regional ambitions.
"The future of Syria must be decided solely by its people, free from external interference or imposition," Iravani added. "An inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process, facilitated by the UN ... is essential."
The rapid advance of rebel forces and their capture of Damascus on December 8, forced Assad into exile in Russia and upended Iran's regional role.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force operatives who had played a central role in bolstering Assad were forced to withdraw, stripping Tehran of its military and intelligence leverage.
Armed rebels stormed and looted the Iranian embassy, and a truck parked outside was photographed toting away a large golden chandelier.
Iravani described Iran's military intervention in the country as vital to defeating militants from Islamic State, referred to as Daesh in Arabic.
"For years, Iran has provided legitimate support to Syria in his fight against terrorism, acting upon the formal and lawful request of the then Syrian government," he said. "Without Iran and Hezbollah's decisive efforts and sacrifices, Syria would have fallen entirely under the control of Daesh and its affiliated terrorist groups."
The remarks stood in contrast to those of Iran's ultimate decider of domestic and foreign policy, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who said in a speech last week that the Syrian rebels would be pushed out.
“By God’s blessing, the territories occupied in Syria will be freed by the brave young people of Syria,” Khamenei said. “Have no doubt that this will happen.”
Iravani said on Tuesday that preserving Syria's institutions is key to preventing further chaos, warning of the consequences if governance structures collapse.
"Maintaining Syrian governmental institutions is vital for stability... Institutional collapse risks further fragmentation, humanitarian suffering, and exploitation by extremists," he said.
At home, Iran's regional setbacks have heightened scrutiny of Iran’s foreign policy priorities, with critics questioning the allocation of resources to wars abroad while economic conditions deteriorate domestically.
Khamenei in his speech attributed Assad’s downfall to a plot by the United States and Israel and also ascribed blame to Turkey without explicitly naming it.
As Tehran grapples with the fallout, its regional strategy may see significant changes, including a potential push to advance its nuclear program as a means of restoring deterrence. However, the loss of Syria as a strategic ally represents a major challenge for Iran, signaling a significant realignment in regional geopolitics.