Iran split over Trump’s Middle East peace push

“There’s a lot more work to be done on the overall peace agreement,” Hoeven said, referring to ongoing US-backed efforts to consolidate a regional peace framework following the Gaza ceasefire.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is holding for now after Hamas released 20 hostages to Israel on Monday in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian political prisoners.

In Sharm el-Sheikh, regional and international leaders convened to advance the fragile peace process. Egypt’s president described the US-backed proposal as “the last chance” to secure lasting stability in the Middle East.

“If this peace agreement can come together, and it has such broad-based support among not only Israel and the United States, but the Arab countries, we have a chance to really change the paradigm in the Middle East," Hoeven told Iran International.

Hoeven, a senior senator and long-time supporter of Israel, said Iran remained the key obstacle to regional stability.

“As far as Iran and the reign of terror, they have been the number one state sponsor of terror for many years,” he said. “Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis, they are proxies for Iran. Iran props them up," Hoeven said.

The senator expressed optimism that renewed US and Arab cooperation could reshape the region’s security and economic future. “If we can change that dynamic and get back to the Abraham Accords and get Saudi Arabia engaged like we’d like to, hopefully we can really change the region for a better, peaceful, prosperous future.”

The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 by President Donald Trump and his senior adviser son-in-law Jared Kushner, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states.

Current efforts to expand that framework could gain momentum following the Gaza ceasefire.

Hoeven’s remarks follow similar comments made to Iran International last week by Democratic Senator Cory Booke, who said Iran “plays a destructive role across the Middle East” and remains the main spoiler of peace efforts.

Whether a sign of coordinated messaging or mere coincidence, the remarks—published across Iranian media on Sunday, October 12—suggest the establishment’s growing unease.

The trio were Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, a former chief inspector of Khamenei’s office; Ali Shamkhani, a former security chief and current senior military adviser to Khamenei; and Massih Mohajeri, managing editor of Jomhouri Eslami, a newspaper founded by Khamenei in 1979 and still funded by his office.

The original sin

In a rare interview with the economic daily Donya-ye Eghtesad, Nateq Nouri reflected on the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, calling what became known as the Hostage Crisis “a big mistake.”

“That was the starting point of many of our troubles,” he said. “Don’t other embassies have intelligence sections? We seized the US embassy, and the Americans responded by seizing ours and freezing our assets. What followed was a chain of problems, actions and reactions that continue to this day.”

He added that more recent attacks on the embassies of UK and Saudi Arabia (2011, 2016) further damaged Iran’s foreign relations: “Those actions led to pressures and challenges in foreign policy that have brought us to this point.”

Nateq Nouri was widely believed to be Khamenei’s preferred candidate in the 1997 presidential election, which he lost to reformist Mohammad Khatami.

In 2009, he resigned his post in the leader’s office after Khamenei refused to intervene when then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused him and his family of financial corruption on state television.

Isolation: Avoidable

Another longtime Khamenei aide, Ali Shamkhani, acknowledged Iran’s shortcomings in air defense, blaming sanctions.

“We developed our missile industry, but we failed to invest in air defense,” he said. “Due to sanctions, no foreign country cooperates with us in the area of armament.”

Asked why Tehran never sought to purchase weapons abroad, Shamkhani replied, “The fact is, we are isolated. But we could have been less isolated.”

Shamkhani also admitted it was a mistake to underestimate U.S. support for Israel and overestimate Russia’s backing in wartime.

“Iran should have had nuclear bombs,” he concluded with a sigh. “I should have facilitated that when I was defense minister under president Khatami.”

The Final Sin?

Also on Sunday, the establishment daily Jomhouri Eslami ran an editorial lamenting that Hamas carried out its incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023.

“Despite many opinions and views, Operation Al-Aqsa was a mistake,” the editorial—likely authored by editor Massih Mohajeri—read.

The remark stands in stark contrast to Khamenei’s earlier praise for the attack, when he said he “kisses the hands” of those behind it.

The operation “was a storm with no winner,” the editorial argued, causing losses for Iran, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Qatar, and Gaza itself.

The rare chorus of regret from within Khamenei’s circle may suggest unease over the costs of the Islamic Republic’s decades-long policies. Whether such public reflections will lead to any meaningful recalibration remains the million-dollar question.

Lawmakers rejected the motion with 150 votes in favor, 73 against and nine abstentions out of 238 members present, Tasnim said. The proposal was sent to parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee for further review.

The bill was introduced by conservative lawmakers seeking to block implementation of Iran’s conditional approval to join the UN Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, one of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards that require countries to monitor and report financial transactions to curb money laundering and terror funding.

Earlier this month, Iran’s Expediency Council, which resolves disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, gave conditional approval for joining the treaty after years of delay. The council said implementation would depend on guarantees that Iran’s economic and security interests would not be compromised.

Hardline lawmakers argue that joining the convention could expose Iran’s financial channels used to bypass US sanctions and support regional allies such as Hezbollah and armed groups in Iraq and Yemen. They say Iran should only join once all sanctions are lifted.

Supporters of the treaty, including some moderate lawmakers and economic officials, argue that compliance with FATF standards could help reconnect Iran’s banking system to global financial networks and attract foreign investment amid a severe economic downturn.

“We always bring Jared when we want to get that deal closed … Steve, you and Jared and the general and Pete and Marco — you’ll get that deal done,” Trump said moments after discussing Iran’s nuclear program and its role in the Middle East.

The line was brief but telling.

For analysts who have followed Trump’s unconventional diplomacy, it echoed the playbook that produced the Abraham Accords — a blend of personal trust, transactional bargaining and Kushner’s unique access to Persian Gulf capitals.

Kushner has already hinted at his own views on Iran in the past. In a post on X in September 2024, he called the day Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s was assassinated by Israel “the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords.”

Kushner wrote on X that Iran was “now fully exposed” because its deterrent — Hezbollah’s arsenal — had been “a loaded gun pointed at Israel.”

The billionaire businessman argued that Israel “cannot afford now to not finish the job and completely dismantle the arsenal that has been aimed at them,” and praised Trump’s strategy of strength over negotiation.

The message underscored Kushner’s hawkish outlook on Iran and belief that its armed allies in the region must be dismantled before any lasting peace can emerge.

The Kushner Factor

Eric Mandel, director of the Middle East Political Information Network (MEPIN), told Iran International that Trump’s reliance on loyal envoys like Kushner reflects his governing style — but that Iran is a different arena entirely.

“He uses people who are loyal to him to do things way beyond what normal portfolios are,” Mandel said. “But you’re not going to change the spots of the Islamic Republic.”

Mandel warned that Kushner’s pragmatic, business-minded approach could misread Tehran’s ideological rigidity.

While Mandel sees value in verifiable understandings — such as access for inspectors, curbs on ballistic missile and limits on activity by armed allies — he doubts Tehran would treat such talks as anything more than a tactical pause.

Iran has expressly rejected curbs to its military activities as a non-starter for talks.

“If you can kick the can down the road five years, maybe ten, and get something binding, fine,” he said. “But don’t expect human-rights progress or regime transformation. They’ll stall until Trump is gone," said Mandel.

Trump’s renewed focus on Iran comes amid a regional recalibration. Following Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June and a fragile Gaza truce, he may be testing whether Tehran’s leadership will engage diplomatically or double down on defiance.

‘The Carrot and the Stick’

Kushner’s re-emergence makes practical sense, as he retains credibility with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha, and may offer Tehran a face-saving interlocutor outside official channels, Middle East analyst, former Israeli intelligence official and author Avi Melamed told Iran International.

“It makes sense that he could be someone the Iranians would be willing to look at as a go-between,” Melamed said. “He’s a familiar figure in Gulf capitals, and his track record with the Abraham Accords gives him legitimacy others don’t have.”

Kushner has multi-billion dollar business ties with state-linked businesses in the region.

His Affinity Partners investment group partnered with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund to help buy US videogame developer Electronic Arts last month for $55 billion, which if completed would be the largest leveraged buyout in history.

Carrot, stick

Trump’s mention of Kushner also signaled a dual strategy — diplomacy backed by implicit threat, Israeli-Iranian researcher Beni Sabti, who served as former spokesperson to Prime Minister Netanyahu, told Iran International.

“Jared is the carrot, and Israel is the stick,” he said. “Trump shows Iran that there’s a softer route if they behave, but the alternative is pressure and potential strikes.”

Yet others see opportunity rather than confrontation. With Iran under economic strain and its regional proxies weakened, some analysts believe Trump’s overture — and Kushner’s possible return — could open a narrow diplomatic window.

Melamed argued Tehran has reasons to listen. The June 12-day war severely weakened the so-called axis of resistance and exposed Iran’s regional vulnerabilities.

Coupled with new US sanctions and pressure on Iran-backed militias, “the toolkit Washington holds today is far stronger than before October 7,” he said. Melamed expects the clerical establishment to seek talks to ease economic strain while preserving its core power structure.

Sabti said Tehran’s refusal to attend last month’s Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit underscores both its isolation and its pride — a system that, he said, “would rather stay out and look strong than appear subordinate.”

Whether Kushner formally re-enters diplomacy on Iran remains unclear. But Trump’s words revived speculation first reported by Iran International podcast Eye for Iran in 2024, when Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld — who worked with Kushner on the Abraham Accords — predicted that “the only way there will be peace in the Middle East is through someone like Kushner.”

For now, Iran’s answer is silence.

The Islamic Republic declined an invitation to the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, calling recognition accords with Israel a “treacherous normalization project.”

Still, with sanctions tightening and proxies under strain, analysts agree Tehran may be preparing to reopen diplomatic channels — even if only to buy time.

"I think Iran will come along. They've been battered and bruised and, you know, they're out there. They need some help. There are big sanctions, as you know, tremendous sanctions," Trump told reporters alongside Egypt's President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

"I'd love to take the sanctions off when they're ready to talk. But they can't really survive with those sanctions," he added ahead of a summit in Sharm al-Sheikh.

Trump on Monday clinched the release of 20 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian political prisoners in a complex international deal he says will bring the devastating two-year-old war in Gaza to a close.

A troika of European powers triggered the reimposition of international sanctions on Iran last month, accusing Tehran of spurning diplomacy and nuclear inspections.

Trump reinstated the so-called "maximum pressure" campaign of US sanctions when he resumed office in January.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon, has rejected a US demand that it renounce domestic enrichment and sees sanctions as a violation of international law.

"I think Iran is going to be fine. I know so many Iranian people. They're great people. They're smart. Great, great people. Engineers, lawyers. I mean, they're academics. But they took a big hit," Trump added.

Trump has frequently spoken of wanting better ties with Tehran, even surprising Israeli lawmakers in a speech to the Israeli parliament earlier in the day when he opined: "It would be great if we made a peace deal with them, wouldn’t it be nice,"

The statement earned a smattering of applause from attendees.

Trump earlier this year gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to reach a nuclear deal, demanding it end all domestic uranium enrichment. Tehran denies seeking a weapon and sees enrichment as a right.

On June 13, the 61st day since talks began, Israel launched a surprise military campaign which killed nuclear scientists along with hundreds of military personnel and civilians.

On the ninth day of fighting, the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear sites which US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said "obliterated" the country's nuclear program.

The 12-day war ended with a US-brokered ceasefire on June 24 but talks between Washington and Tehran have yet to resume.

'I make deals'

Trump has long asserted his deal-making prowess and has cited the Abraham Accord normalization agreements between several Arab states and Israel as a main accomplishment of his first term.

Elected in part on pledges to keep the United States out of foreign wars, Trump took a risk and alienated some in his right-win base with the June 22 strikes, but has described the attacks as necessary to paving the way toward a Gaza deal.

"And frankly, if we didn't hit them with the nuclear, I don't think you would have been able to have this incredible, this deal, this once-in-a-lifetime deal. Nobody's ever said anything like what's happening today," Trump added.

The President has repeatedly said Iran had publicly supported the deal but a foreign ministry statement on Thursday offered only a measured blessing, saying the Islamic Republic supports any accord backed by Palestinians which ends Israeli "genocide".

"Iran did put out a statement that they support this deal very wholeheartedly. So that was, in itself, something," Trump added. "That's all I do in my life. I make deals. And they want to make a deal."