Khamenei sends message to Putin after Israel signals peace hopes via Moscow

Without engaging Iran in a diplomatic process or decisively chastising it on the battlefield - genuine peace may remain elusive. Iran remains a key regional player capable of shaking the fragile detente.

While a punishing US-Israeli war battered its nuclear and military capabilities, a wounded and isolated Iran could yet be a spoiler for long-term stability.

Washington has yet to extract any meaningful concessions from Iran, neither by force of arms nor increasingly onerous sanctions.

The "dark cloud" US President Donald Trump repeatedly described Iran posing in the region may yet lower over any peace agreement.

For decades, Iran has been a central force of instability in the region. Now, following the October 10, 2025 ceasefire, it finds itself in a weakened position: an economy strangled by sanctions, diminished armed allies in the region and growing international isolation.

History shows that whenever Iran has felt cornered, it has not stepped back but rather sallied forth. It expanded its war with Iraq into the Persian Gulf in the late 1980s, announced continued uranium enrichment in defiance of UN sanctions and directed proxy attacks on key Saudi Aramco oil facilities in 2019.

This pattern suggests that mere containment does not restrain Tehran but provokes even more unpredictable behavior.

Waning crescent

Trump, however, seems convinced that Iran is ready for peace. In an address to the Israeli Knesset on Monday, he said, “Iran has informed us that it fully agrees with this deal,” even extending an offer of “friendship” to Tehran.

But why does Trump believe the Iran can be coaxed into a Mideast order at peace with Israel, which would violate the essence of the Islamic Republic's state ideology?

In his drive to declare victory and end the war, Trump may be too invested in his own narrative of success. He argues that strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities forced Tehran out of the field and paved the way for peace.

Yet was Iran’s menace really confined to the underground halls of Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear laboratories?

A glance at the so-called Shi'ite Crescent of Iranian influence in the Middle East - now very much on the wane still perceptible - suggests otherwise.

Iran has not renounced its nuclear activities and remains a vocal patron of armed Islamist movements.

The Arab world’s role is now decisive. In July 2025, the Arab League - working in an unprecedented joint move with Western powers - called for the disarmament of Hamas, stripping the group of its resistance legitimacy and disconnecting it from Iran’s paramilitary project.

The statement, urging Hamas to surrender its weapons and release hostages, marked a fundamental shift in Arab policy.

The success of Trump’s ceasefire plan now depends largely on Arab leverage. Gulf states, as key financiers of Gaza’s reconstruction, can condition their aid on Hamas’s compliance, including complete disarmament.

If the Arab world takes that path, how will Tehran respond? Capitulation seems unlikely. Iran sees Hamas as a pillar of its anti-Israel strategy, and its disarmament as a direct blow to Tehran’s regional influence.

Iran in response could intensify proxy operations - through Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping or renewed militant activity in Iraq and Syria. Yet Iran’s current weakness - economic exhaustion, diplomatic isolation and recent military setbacks - might also push it toward negotiations.

Trump’s political bet

That is the political bet Trump is making. Still, Iran’s absence from the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, followed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s sharp post telling Trump he was Israel's dupe, suggests talks remain far away.

The new Middle East order is no longer centered on the “axis of resistance” but on shared security and economic interests between Arab states and Israel.

Iran has gambled everything on its ideology of resistance and lost.

Its likely response will combine several tracks: rebuilding its regional standing through soft diplomacy with Arab neighbors, increasing pressure on Israel from secondary fronts like Lebanon or Syria and maintaining strategic ties with Russia and China as counterweights to the West.

At this moment, Trump is watching and waiting, ready to resort to force if Iran reacts, or to let Tehran drift into diplomatic irrelevance if it does not.

Either path could lead to a historic shift: the gradual erasure of Iran from the region’s balance of power and possibly its eventual collapse from within.

Cécile Kohler and her partner Jacques Paris, detained since 2022, are among several foreign and dual nationals held in Iran in recent years and accused of spying.

"I would like to spare a special thought for our compatriots Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who have been detained for more than three years in Iran," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux told reporters on Thursday.

"Both were arbitrarily sentenced just the day before yesterday to very long prison terms. The charges against them, whatever they may be, are completely unfounded. We call for their immediate release," he added.

Confavreux’s remarks came after Iran’s judiciary-affiliated Mizan news agency, said on Tuesday that two French nationals described as intelligence operatives were convicted of espionage, collusion and aiding Israeli intelligence.

One received a combined 31-year sentence and the other 32 years.

Iranian authorities did not name the two, but the descriptions appeared to match Kohler and Paris, a French teacher and her partner detained in May 2022 and accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad.

The judiciary said the defendants were arrested in March 2023 and had access to lawyers and contact with family during the proceedings.

In September, France withdrew its case against Iran at the International Court of Justice over the detention of Kohler and Paris.

The move followed a meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York and was seen as a possible gesture toward reviving prisoner-exchange talks.

“We have strong prospects of bringing them home in the coming weeks,” French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said last week, without elaborating.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi suggested last month that Iran might free the French pair in exchange for Iranian national Mahdieh Esfandiari, who is due to face trial in January for promoting acts of terrorism.

Iran acquitted and freed dual German-French national Lennart Monterlos on charges of spying for Israel during a 12-day conflict in June. The 18-year-old had been bicycling in Iran at the time and has now been returned to France.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made the remarks in an interview with Uganda’s BBEG media outlet on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement foreign ministers’ meeting in Kampala.

He said Iran remained committed to strengthening economic partnerships among member states.

“We welcome unity and economic partnerships among Non-Aligned Movement countries to promote effective diplomacy and sustainable development within our group. This solidarity is vital for all our partners,” Araghchi said.

Iran, he added, had significant capacity to share expertise with developing nations in areas such as oil and gas and called for greater South-South cooperation.

The Non-Aligned Movement was founded during the Cold War by states seeking to avoid alignment with either the US or Soviet blocs.

NAM includes around 120 member countries and focuses on issues such as sovereignty, economic development, social justice and mutual cooperation.

Iran became a NAM member in 1961 and has at times held its presidency.

A day earlier, Araghchi had urged member states to reject what he described as “invalid” attempts by the United States and the three European countries known as the E3 — Britain, France and Germany — to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran.

He called the move “groundless and illegitimate” speaking during the 19th Ministerial Meeting of the Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in Kampala on Wednesday.

“This stance not only renews our joint dedication to NAM’s core values but also sends a loud and clear message to the world that independent nations, united in solidarity and purposeful resolve, will not bow to bullying or coercive pressures,” he said.

The E3 triggered the reimposition of international sanctions on Iran last month, accusing Tehran of spurning diplomacy and nuclear inspections.

Russia and China sought to block the move at the UN Security Council on September 26 not enough member states supported their bid and the sanctions were reimposed the following day.

“While Iran has not binned or ended discussions with the IAEA on implementing the Cairo access deal, I understand it still hasn’t issued reports or given dates for issuing reports on damaged sites and stockpile. Nor of course permitted access to damaged sites,” Laurence Norman wrote on X. He said IAEA chief Rafael Grossi “is for now being given more space” but continues to press Tehran to advance on these steps.

The comments come as Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization chief Mohammad Eslami said on Wednesday that “no IAEA inspector is currently in the country.” Eslami said only two visits had been allowed since the June airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — to Bushehr and Tehran reactors — both cleared by the Supreme National Security Council.

The Cairo deal, reached in September between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Grossi, was meant to restore limited cooperation after the strikes. It outlined “practical modalities” for monitoring declared nuclear sites, but Iranian officials warned the accord could collapse if UN sanctions were reinstated. Western governments triggered the snapback of those sanctions in late September, citing Iran’s failure to meet its obligations.

Eslami said Iran is not considering leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty but faulted the IAEA for failing to condemn the US and Israeli attacks. “The agency should have condemned the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, but it did not,” he said, adding that Iran’s cooperation is now governed by a new parliamentary law limiting access.

Norman said the IAEA has so far avoided demanding immediate access to a specific site to prevent a direct refusal by Tehran, “risking a crisis.” He added that Iran “could play its old game of offering something ahead of [the] November IAEA board” but warned that without progress, “we could be running into another significant moment in November.”

The exhibition, organized by the US-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), featured a Shahed-136 drone recovered in Ukraine and was intended, according to the group, to highlight Tehran’s role in aiding Moscow’s military campaign. Sikorski attended the event during a visit to London for meetings with British officials.

Earlier that day, Sikorski told reporters that a recent Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace was “tactically stupid and counterproductive,” saying it had only strengthened Western resolve against Moscow. The Polish minister said the drones appeared to have been launched deliberately from Russia and coordinated with Belarus.

Mahmoud Heidari, the Foreign Ministry’s director general for Mediterranean and Eastern European affairs, summoned Polish Chargé d’Affaires Marcin Wilczek and conveyed what he called Tehran’s “strong protest” over the London event. Heidari rejected what he described as “baseless and repetitive accusations” about Iran’s drone program and expressed regret over Sikorski’s involvement.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the move to exhibit the drone violated diplomatic norms and repeated politically motivated allegations about Iran’s role in the Ukraine conflict.

Iran denies supplying drones for use in the war, saying it sold a limited number to Russia before the invasion began. Western governments and Ukraine say Shahed-type drones, designed in Iran and now produced in Russia under the name Geran, have become central to Moscow’s air assaults. The Financial Times reported in July that the modified drones have tripled their success rate in hitting targets.

Polish officials have not publicly commented on the summons, but Warsaw has cooperated with UANI and Ukrainian forces in transferring a similar drone to the United States earlier this year for display at a political conference attended by US President Donald Trump.