Israel’s strike on Iran to signal ‘start of long war’ – senior insider

"That is not supposed to happen, and it's unacceptable when it does," White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby said, adding that the source of the leak or whether it was the result of a hack had not yet been determined.

“The president remains deeply concerned about any leakage of classified information into the public domain,” Kirby said.

The highly classified information relates to intelligence gleaned from US satellites relating to what it describes as preparations for an Israeli air attack in Iran in retaliation for an Oct. 1 missile barrage on the Jewish state.

The documents first appeared online Friday on the Telegram messaging app and quickly spread among Telegram channels popular with Iranians known as the Middle East Spectator. The platform's account on X lists its location as the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency were the alleged authors of the intelligence, which was meant only for the "Five Eyes", an alliance of intelligence sharing countries comprising the US, Canada, the UK, New Zealand and Australia.

Holden Tripplet, a former FBI counterintelligence official told Iran International on Sunday the leak could have been aimed at scaling back the scope of Israel's plans.

“The leak, if done without official sanction by the US government, may have been intended to dissuade an Israeli strike or at least limit the overall retaliatory response," said Tripplet, who spent 15 years in the FBI.

The leak earned criticism of the Biden-Harris administration from a usual quarter, Republicans in congress.

Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker posted to X on Tuesday cited the case of Ariane Tabatabai, a senior Pentagon official with alleged ties to Iran.

An Iran International Investigation found Tabatabai was part of an official Iranian influence network in Washington DC advocating for Tehran and its policy goals. There has been no evidence connecting Tabatabai to the release of classified documents.

"Last year, I called for suspending Ariane Tabatabai’s security clearance for her role in an Iranian info op. Amazingly, she’s still in her job," Wicker wrote.

"The latest apparent leak to an Iranian Telegram channel reflects the Biden-Harris administration's tolerance of insider threats."

"A lot of people have been worried that there are Iranian sympathizers in the Biden-Harris White House. It‘s very disturbing and the administration needs to come clean on this," former US national security advisor, John Bolton, said on Monday.

US Iran envoy Robert Malley was suspended last year after what media reports citing government sources described as mishandling classified information. He was placed on unpaid leave and had his security clearance suspended.

In February 2021, Malley selected Ariane Tabatabai, then a Middle East fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, for his State Department team to assist in negotiations with Iran. She served in that position for almost 15 months.

"Gulf countries have sent messages to Israel stressing the need for its response to Iran to be strict and clear," Alhurra cited the source as saying.

"Israel is receiving contacts and requests from Gulf countries to inform it in advance of the expected response so that it can take precautions in the event of a counterattack," the channel added.

Israel says it will retaliate for an Oct. 1 attack in which Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state. Iran has publicly said it is not seeking full-scale war but officials have emphasized the country is prepared for a conflict should one arise.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sought to shore up support among regional nations to mitigate Israel’s actions during a recent tour of the Middle East which included visits to Saudi Arabia and Iraq .

Iran also conveyed to its Arab and regional neighbors that they would face retaliation if US or Israeli attacks on the Islamic Republic used their territory or air space, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of orchestrating an assassination attempt after three drones targeted one of his residences. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were at home during the incident.

The attempted strike comes just days after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a precision operation in southern Gaza.

“The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Saturday night, adding Israel would “eliminate the terrorists and those who dispatch them”.

Alhurra’s interviews cited former Israeli military spokesperson Jonathan Conricus saying the assassination attempt on Netanyahu could represent a miscalculation by Iran by providing Israel with a justification for a broader response.

The news outlet further reports that Israel, while coordinating with regional militaries under US Central Command (CENTCOM), sees its response to Iranian missile attacks as a strategic opportunity to assert its military power in the Middle East and counter the threats from Tehran, both direct and indirect.

Israeli sources, including Conricus, emphasized to Alhurra that Israel's goal is not just to shift the balance of power between Israel and Iran, but to reshape the broader dynamics of the Middle East.

The report suggests that Arab nations on the Persian Gulf also view this moment as an opportunity to weaken Tehran through support of Israel’s military actions.

While in Germany last Friday, US President Joe Biden told reporters that he has a good understanding of how and when Israel plans to respond to Iran’s missile attack but declined to provide further details.

Although the timing and specifics of Israel's retaliation remain unclear, sources informed CNN last week that it is expected to take place before the US presidential election on November 5.

Previous reports from multiple news outlets indicate that Israel has assured the US it will refrain from targeting nuclear or energy infrastructure, though other reports suggest that all options are still on the table.

Writer, educator, and civil activist Abbas Vahedian Shahroodi is serving a lengthy prison sentence at Vakilabad Prison in the city of Mashhad, for his outspoken criticism of Khamenei.

“I suggest you open your eyes and clear the blood that has clouded your vision, so you can see the reality of Iranian society, which is being crushed under poverty, inflation, corruption, unemployment, prostitution, and addiction," Shahroodi’s letter said.

He further warned, “There is no need to look back at history; just look at the fate of your close friends like Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and Yahya Sinwar.”

In his letter, Shahroodi revisits his prominent 2019 open statement, in which he and 13 fellow political activists peacefully called on Khamenei to step down after two decades in power, emphasizing the pressing need for more competent governance in Iran, and a transition from the Islamic Republic to a secular and democratic government.

The initial letter, part of a larger movement, led to the imprisonment of many signatories, with Shahroodi stating that he and others have been detained on direct orders from Khamenei since its publication – while the activist has said that Khamenei has stayed silent in the face of criticism.

Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have documented Shahroodi's torture by the Ministry of Intelligence, including his prolonged solitary confinement on at least one occasion.

In his recent letter, the dissident further warns that Khamenei's leadership has not only inflicted severe internal damage on Iran but also contributed to the destabilization of the broader Middle East, where proxy groups under his influence, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have intensified regional unrest.

Shahroodi criticizes Khamenei by referencing pivotal moments in Iran's modern history, from the Islamic Republic's founding after the 1979 Revolution to its ongoing suppression of dissent. He highlights key events, including the state-led mass executions of the 1980s, the prolonged Iran-Iraq war, and the authorities severe crackdowns on protests – such as the post-election unrest in 2009 and the nationwide demonstrations in 2017 and 2019.

"The Islamic Republic," he writes, "dragged the country into a long war with Iraq—a war that could have ended within the first few months but was extended to eight years at Khomeini’s will, imposing severe human and financial losses on Iranians."

Throughout his letter, Shahroodi accuses Khamenei of neglecting the deep-rooted issues plaguing Iranian society under his rule. He implores Khamenei to open his eyes to the suffering of the Iranian people and urges him to resign before it is too late.

Shahroodi’s 2019 letter, co-signed by other dissidents, was released on the 10th anniversary of Iran’s 2009 presidential election, widely regarded as fraudulent and followed by mass protests calling for regime change. Among the signatories were prominent activists, including Hashem Khastar, Gohar Eshghi (mother of murdered blogger Sattar Beheshti), and Mohammad Nourizad. A few months later, 14 Iranian women activists issued a similar letter, condemning theocratic rule for promoting gender apartheid and erasing women’s rights.

Several signatories of both letters have since been imprisoned or faced repression for their demands.

The appointment on Sunday of Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian was confirmed in a cabinet meeting led by Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate.

Motamedian, who previously served in key positions in the ministry of intelligence, has been accused of overseeing mass arrests and authorizing the use of lethal force during the 2022 uprising in West Azerbaijan province.

The unrest was sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in the custody of the so-called morality police enforcing Iran's mandatory hijab law.

“Motamedian played a critical role in suppressing protests in Urmia, Mahabad, and other cities, where dozens of protesters were killed,” according to Justice for Iran, a human rights organization.

Born in Kermanshah in 1970, Motamedian has held various positions in the Iranian government over the past two decades, including roles as governor of South Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan. In October 2021, he was the first senior Iranian official to meet with Taliban leaders in Afghanistan following their return to power.

Motamedian’s tenure as governor of West Azerbaijan saw the deaths of at least 56 protesters in the province, part of a broader crackdown by the Iranian government that resulted in more than 550 protesters being killed nationwide, according to human rights groups including the Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization.

Motamedian’s appointment comes in the context of President Pezeshkian’s broader governance approach, which has seen other controversial figures placed in key provincial positions.

Earlier this month Pezeshkian named Hossein Ali Amiri, a former judiciary official known for persecuting Jewish and Baha’i communities as governor of Fars Province. Amiri oversaw the 1999 arrest of 13 Jewish citizens in Shiraz for espionage on behalf of Israel - a charge frequently used against religious minorities in Iran.

Pezeshkian has faced criticism over his cabinet picks, particularly for naming as interior minister Eskandar Momeni, who has an extensive military and law enforcement background and played a role in suppressing popular protests in 2017, 2019, and 2022.

They were also accused of sharing information about Israel’s air defense system, the Iron Dome, and the Hadera power plant, sharing intelligence directly with Iran.

The team, who lived in northern Israel, had been paid thousands of dollars, also in crypto, according to Israel’s Shin Bet.

Israel Police named the Jewish suspects as Aziz Nisanov, Alexander Sedikov, Vyacheslav Goshchin, Yevgeny Yufa, Yigal Nisan and two minors.

“The investigation revealed that for over two years, the suspects have been carrying out a series of different security missions for the Iranian intelligence agencies, under the direction of two agents from the Iranian intelligence - Alkhan and Oran, while the members of the infrastructure are aware that the information they pass on to the agents harms the security of the state, and in some cases can even assist the enemy in a missile attack,” the statement detailed.

The group carried out hundreds of information gathering tasks on IDF bases throughout the country, with an emphasis on air force and navy bases, ports, locations of Iron Dome defense systems and energy infrastructures.

“The activity included photographing and documenting the various sites that the members of the infrastructure handed over to the agents,” the statement added, the team given advanced and dedicated equipment that they had purchased ahead of time, all under the guidance of the Iranian agents.

The cell was also asked to collect information about a number of Israeli citizens with the view of them being future targets.

An indictment is expected to be filed by the prosecutor's office in the coming days.

Ronen Solomon, an Israeli intelligence analyst, said it is likely communication from Iran was done in Azeri language. "It is one of the tools of Iran's Unit 840 and IRGC Unit 4000," he said. "But how they managed to work under the radar for two years is something crazy," he said.

Israel’s state attorney's office stressed that "this is one of the most serious cases investigated in recent years."

Asher Ben Artzi, Israel's former head of Interpol, told Iran International: "I never in my life thought I would see something like this. Assisting an enemy during war, I am in shock."

After decades in the security service, he said the incident will send shockwaves through the tight-knit country of just 10 million. "It's a betrayal," he said. "It's the worst thing that a citizen can do.

Ben Artzi said the operation highlighted the sophisticated nature of Iranian intelligence, targeting "weak links" in Israel, immigrants who are more economically challenged and less integrated into Jewish life.

"They have blood on their hands," he said, as he says the cell gave information about the elite Golani unit's army base attack by Hezbollah this month, which led to the deaths of five soldiers with dozens more injured.

"I'm not sure this is the end of the story," Ben Artzi warned, expecting more such cases in the future.

It’s the latest such case in a series over recent weeks. While Iran has been trying to recruit Israelis for over a decade, the incidence of arrests has increased since the Gaza war when Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel. Since then, Iran's proxies have been targeting Israel across its borders.

Most recently, arrests were made in two cases of Russian-Israeli citizens linked to Iran. They, like the Azerbaijanis, had come to Israel under the law of return which allows Jews around the world to immigrate to the world’s only Jewish state.

Yaron Binyamin, from unit Lahav 433, told Ynet News that "this is one of the most serious security incidents that have been investigated here,” adding that “there is a very high possibility that the main clause will be aiding the enemy in war, for which the penalty is death or life imprisonment.”

He said that the barrage of 181 ballistic missiles was able to have impacts due to the intelligence shared by the Azerbaijani team whose motive was “a thirst for money”.

The arrest of the suspects took place during a photo mission in the south of Israel. Binyamin said the relationship with Iran was managed through a Turkish intermediary named Alhassan.

He added that all the suspects were aware that they were working for Iran. "They knew they were carrying out the tasks for an enemy country, so the punishment expected of them will be particularly severe.”

Minister Micky Zohar called for the threat of the death penalty as the state faces a new and unprecedented threat from within.

On Monday he told Channel 12 in Israel "the phenomenon of traitors to the country and harming Israel's security for the sake of money while we are fighting for our future .... requires the application of extremely harsh measures, including a death penalty law for aiding the enemy in wartime."

In 1954, Israel abolished the death penalty for murder but kept it in place for war crimes, though since the establishment of the state in 1948, has enacted the death penalty only once, for Nazi Adolf Eichmann.