Russia launches Soyuz carrying two Iranian satellites

That would overshadow the winner and sow chaos for whoever becomes the next president during the transition phase, said Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute.

Leaders of the Islamic Republic have warned that their response to Israel will be a “punishing” reprisal.

Nadimi, who specializes in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the greater region, said Iran would most likely use Iraq and Syria to launch more precise missiles.

Iran hinted at this in an interview between Kamal Kharrazi, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader with Lebanon-based pro Iran broadcast Al-Mayadeen on Friday.

Kharrazi said that Tehran will increase the range of its ballistic missiles that go beyond the self-restricted limit of 2,000 km. Achieving that would require launching from neighbouring ally countries like Iraq and Syria.

Nadimi points to recent reports of missiles moving from Iraq into eastern Syria.

"They [Iran] will want to bring their missiles closer to Israel to improve their range," said Nadimi.

Iraq would likely object, but Nadimi said they would not have the power to prevent Iran from doing it, and Israel is anticipated to launch preemptive strikes at Iraq and Syria.

The Jerusalem Post also reported that "the IDF has not ruled out the possibility of an Iranian response from Syria, Yemen, or Iraq, rather than directly from Iran."

For this strike, Nadimi who specializes in Iran's military capabilities, believes it will launch up to 400 missiles, if not more. The aim: to disable major Israeli air defense sites and defense industries.

There are 4 main air bases: Nevatim, Tel Nof, Hatzerim and Ramon.

Those four air bases were allegedly involved in Israel's latest strike in Iran.

Israel's military said its October 26 attack knocked out Iranian missile factories and air defenses in three waves of strikes in response to Iran's barrage of ballistic missiles on October 1.

There may even be deployment of top line missiles like the Khoramshahr-4 alongside Fattah, Kheibarshekan and Emad, according to Nadimi.

The Artesh, which is Iran's military, along with the use of drones is also another scenario Nadimi foresees.

Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, said Iran's army along with proxies and the IRGC could assist Iran's air force and navy.

Brodsky said of note is Artesh's role during the Syrian civil war and its fighter jets striking ISIS in Iraq in 2014.

"The army’s air force and navy platforms have the capability of launching missiles and drones at Israeli targets. That combined with IRGC missiles and drones launched from either Iran or Iraq, Syria, and Yemen is a very realistic possibility," he added.

Israel would retaliate against both Iran and its proxies, which would be a huge risk for Tehran, yet it's a risk that indicates how much the establishment's deterrence has failed, according to Brodsky.

According to state news agency IRNA, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “If [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a ceasefire and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response.”

According to the head of Iran’s Airlines Association, the government’s proposed budget for the next Iranian year (which starts March 21) includes a plan to raise fuel costs for airlines from 6,000 rials (less than one US cent) to 70,000 (about 10 cents), potentially leading to higher operating costs and, consequently, higher ticket prices for passengers.

Airlines in Iran receive heavily subsidized fuel, which contributes to lower ticket prices. The aviation fuel is subsidized more than twice as much as gasoline and diesel sold for passenger cars, buses and trucks.

Even with such cheap fuel, most Iranians cannot afford to buy flight tickets. The average cheapest domestic return ticket for one person costs between 40,000,000 and 60,000,000 rials, roughly half of a typical wage earner's monthly salary. One US dollar currently trades for almost 700,000 rials.

However, the government now aims to reduce this subsidy and increase revenue.

Maghsoud Asadi Samani said that the 11-fold raise means the impact of the each liter of aviation fuel on the total cost per seat hour will increase from 240,000 rials (about 34 cents) to 2,800,000 rials (about $4).

Last month, as President Masoud Pezeshkian presented his government’s first budget outline to the parliament, he told lawmakers that the production cost of each liter of gasoline—excluding crude oil—stands at approximately 80,000 rials (about 11 US cents). Furthermore, imported gasoline costs between 300,000 and 400,000 rials per liter (about 40 to 60 US cents).

Speculation is mounting over a potential gasoline price hike, as the government wavers on implementing these politically charged plans.

In response to comments by some lawmakers that the budget bill includes a 40% increase in gasoline prices, the spokesperson of the Planning and Budget Organization recently said: "There is no provision for a gasoline price hike in the 1404 budget.”

Mojgan Khanlou noted that the budget and budgeting system in Iran are fundamentally not the place to set gasoline prices. "Setting the prices of petroleum products requires decision-making at the highest levels of national management, and any adjustment or pricing needs to be discussed thoroughly across various levels."

She added, "The policy of the Planning and Budget Organization is that any adjustment in this area should be made with collective consensus, and the government’s proposed budget has avoided sudden changes and shock decisions that could impact other markets."

However, lawmakers argue that although there is no specific mention about raising fuel prices, the government has envisioned a significant rise in its revenues from fuel sales.

Hossein Samsami, a member of parliament's economic committee, said this week that the upcoming budget projects over 200 trillion rials (about $300 million) in revenue from gasoline sales, which could lead to a 40% increase in gasoline prices.

Iran's heavily subsidized gasoline costs just 2 cents per liter (or less than 10 cents per gallon), making it one of the cheapest in the world. However, this subsidy comes at a steep price for the government, which spends billions annually to sustain it.

For most Iranians, who earn about $200 per month, a large increase could push an already struggling population to the brink. Violent protests shook Iran in November 2019, when the government suddenly tripled gasoline prices.

On Monday, the CEO of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, Keramat Veis-Karami, announced a record-breaking surge in gasoline consumption in the Iranian month of Shahrivar (August 22 –September 21), saying that gasoline imports reached 9 million liters per day in this time span.

While Iranian officials frequently assert that gasoline consumption is rising, reports from Iran International reveal that a significant portion of the daily gasoline sold is actually smuggled to neighboring countries due to the stark price disparity.

Meeting Monday with Mohamed al-Hassan, head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), al-Sistani was quoted by the official Iraq News Agency as saying Iraq's progress depends on putting weapons in the state's hands and checking outsiders.

Iraqis must "exert their utmost efforts to overcome their failures, working diligently toward achieving a better future for their country where everyone enjoys security, stability, progress, and prosperity,” INA reported him as saying.

This will be achieved by "preventing foreign interference in all its forms, enforcing the rule of law, restricting arms to the state, and combating corruption at all levels," al-Sistani said, adding: "But it seems that the Iraqis have a long way to go until they achieve this, may God help them."

Al-Sistani is Iraq's preeminent Shia religious authority and an influential voice on public affairs. Along with populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, he has been a longtime skeptic of Iranian influence in the country since a US-led invasion in 2003.

However, al-Sistani's 2014 call for armed defense against the expansion of ultra-hardline Sunni Islamic State militants led to the formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a grouping of armed factions including some backed by Iran.

His remarks come as Iraq is caught in the middle of broader regional conflicts and hosts US troops at the same time Tehran arms and funds powerful Shia militias.

Iranian-aligned armed groups in Iraq, some of which have publicly expressed support for the so-called ‘resistance axis’ aligned with Gaza, have launched missiles and drones toward Israel, though these attacks have had minimal impact.

The term ‘resistance axis’ was coined by the Islamic Republic to describe its regional proxy forces, including Palestinian militant groups, the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad, the Lebanese group Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and others.

Meanwhile, Shia cleric Ali al-Amin in Lebanon has also called on Lebanese citizens to avoid sectarian divisions and support national unity, asserting that government institutions must protect citizens without partisan or sectarian affiliations.

According to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal, Iran is preparing a retaliatory response to Israel’s latest attacks, potentially involving Iraqi territory as a staging ground and using its conventional military forces.

Iranian officials, briefing Arab diplomats, suggested that their response would focus on Israeli military sites “much more aggressively than last time.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also declared that "Iran will in no way leave any violation of its territory and security unanswered."

Director of Iran Human Rights group, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, said the symbolism must not be overlooked as Israel awaits potential retaliation for the October 26 aerial attacks across Iran.

“In the midst of the threats of war with Israel, the Islamic Republic executed Arvin Ghahremani, an Iranian Jewish citizen”, he said, adding that the legal case had “significant flaws.”

Arvin Nathaniel Ghahremani was executed after he was convicted of murder, although his defense argued that the death was accidental and he was defending himself.

Iran’s security apparatus are alleged to have pressured the victim, Amir Shokri’s family not to accept a financial settlement, or blood money, to prevent the execution, as per Iranian laws. Mizan, the news agency of Iran’s judiciary, said the family refused to give consent to the deal.

Iranian-born Yossi Avrahami, who moved to Israel aged 17, told Iran International: “This is just another straw to break the camel’s back for the Jewish community who live a very tough life in Iran."

“Many are leaving and the exodus will continue under the systemic antisemitism of the government to seek a better life elsewhere. It’s heartbreaking but we are being forced out of our homeland.”

Avrahami has family in the US and Israel. “Really, the only safe place for us as Jews now, is Israel, in spite of the threats from Iran.”

Iran’s Jewish community, now numbering around 8,000, is the largest in the region outside Israel, though they live under government oppression. Before 1979, the community was over 100,000 strong, but most fled after the revolution, primarily to Israel and the United States.

Sara Babajani, whose father was born in Iran before moving to Israel, said her family still long to go to their homeland. “To my father, who lived there until he was 15, it’s his home, but it’s not safe for Jews to live under an oppressive, antisemitic regime where sharia law rules,” she told Iran International.

“No Jew is free or safe and until the regime is toppled, we are all trapped in exile. Non-Jews don’t understand why having one Jewish state in the world is so important for us, and this case couldn’t make this answer more clear.”

The Islamic Republic bans Jews from contacting family in Israel or supporting Israel in any way, in spite of the land of Israel being the very essence of the spiritual texts, and prayers directed towards Jerusalem.

"Still in control"

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against a Nuclear Iran, said Iran “wants to send a message at home that it is still in control despite its losses against Israel” after last month’s air attacks which destroyed swathes of Iran’s air defenses.

However, Iranian-born Beni Sabti, a security analyst who now lives in Israel, told Iran International: “I don’t think that it had something to do with Israel because his crime was not related to espionage or something against the regime, so maybe yes they chose the timing for now, but we cannot know for sure.”

As the case was not related to Israel, he said the symbolism is less relevant than the fact the death penalty is being given out in record numbers in the wake of the 2022 uprising. Last year alone, Iran topped the world’s rankings with the most executions with 74 percent of the world’s total, according to Amnesty International.

“In the end, the Jews will have to leave and should, as soon as possible. Israel is no doubt the safest place for them. Many have left, but those who remain choose to be hostages to the regime,” Sabti added.

Footage circulated widely on Saturday showing the woman in her underwear on campus, with officers seen taking her into custody by force. A university official said the student had been sent to a police station for “severe psychological distress,” mirroring claims from media linked to the IRGC that she had mental health issues.

"This student appeared in class wearing inappropriate clothing," the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-linked Fars News agency reported at the time.

"After being reminded by university security to follow dress code regulations on campus, she undressed and walked around the university grounds without clothing," it added, denying that she had faced any violence.

Amir Kabir Newsletter, a student group on Telegram which has covered student dissent for years, reported she had disrobed after being harassed and beaten for not wearing a headscarf.

Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi condemned Iranian authorities on Monday for gaslighting the student, whose identity remains unknown and whom Iran International was unable to reach.

"Labeling protesters as mentally ill is the regime’s longstanding method for suppressing dissent," Ebadi said on Instagram, adding that such tactics are used to silence opposition. "If the protesting student at Azad University was 'ill,' why was she arrested? Is the security apparatus responsible for citizens' medical care?"

Iranian activist Azam Jangravi shared a personal account of how similar pressures affected her during her imprisonment for anti-hijab protests.

"My family was pressured to declare me mentally ill, even being taken to a forensic doctor … My family didn’t do it, but many families under pressure do, thinking it’s the best way to protect their loved ones. This is how the Islamic Republic tries to discredit women by questioning their mental health," she said in a post on Instagram.

Shima Babaei, an exiled activist and recipient of the 2023 Women’s Rights Award of the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy, shared her experience: "When I removed my headscarf in the street and was imprisoned, I heard sarcastic remarks: You are part of a project, you are crazy, and you just want attention."

Iranian journalist and women’s rights activist, Masih Alinejad, also highlighted the Iranian government's repeated use of mental health accusations to undermine female protesters.

Recalling past experiences, Alinejad said: "In 2014, when I launched the My Stealthy Freedom campaign against compulsory hijab, the regime claimed I had a mental breakdown and used fabricated stories to discredit me."

Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, currently detained in Tehran's Evin Prison, also expressed solidarity with the student and denounced the authorities' actions.

"The regime cannot force protesting women, who have made their bodies symbols of dissent and defiance against misogyny and tyranny, into retreat by labeling them as 'mentally unstable,' 'sexually deviant,' or 'misled.'"

The incident and the subsequent labeling of the student have drawn widespread criticism and underscored the ongoing struggle of Iranian women against the enforcement of compulsory hijab laws.

Calls for her release and demands to stop the suppression of women's rights have resonated across social media and rights groups.

The International Federation of Journalists on Monday condemned Iran for arresting the student, who is being identified by Iranian media reports as Ahou Daryaei," saying the girl "protested against the country's draconian dress code by stripping to her underwear."

The IFJ also called on the Iranian government to "urgently review its systemic attempts to trample women's rights and violate freedom of expression, and to release all prisoners including all journalists."

As the student’s identity remains unconfirmed and no updates have followed her arrest, activists have expressed concern for her well-being in custody.