Iran International political analyst
Revelations of major high-level corruption by a former lawmaker have shaken Iran’s political landscape, with many viewing the exposure as a tactic to bolster Mojtaba Khamenei’s candidacy to succeed his father as Supreme Leader.
The release of a 2.5-hour interview in which Abbas Palizdar discusses a 54,000-page document detailing corruption cases involving 52 senior officials and their inner circles has sent shockwaves through Iran’s political sphere, sparking numerous questions about possible motives.
The selective nature of these revelations that mainly target officials who are no longer alive or relevant, coupled with the timing of their release, suggests a calculated strategy rather than a genuine commitment to fighting corruption.
Throughout the interview, Palizdar, who served as the secretary of the Judiciary Inquiry and Review Committee in the parliament in early 2000s and is an apparent ally of Mojtaba Khamenei, used every opportunity to portray him as a potential savior who can cleanse the establishment of corruption.
By spotlighting the misdeeds of past leaders, particularly those who are deceased or out of power, the revelations appear to be deflecting attention from ongoing corruption, while positioning Mojtaba Khamenei as a viable successor. This strategy, noted by social media commentators in the absence of a free press, aims to shape public perception amidst growing discontent.
"Based on the information I have, I hope that his [Mojtaba Khamenei’s] succession will happen soon," Palizdar stated. "With Mojtaba stepping into the country’s leadership, we can expect fundamental reforms. There’s no one more knowledgeable about executive matters and the country’s situation than him. He also has the strength to crush economic corruption at its core."
However, some commentators speaking on Persian language networks outside Iran noted that the allegations of corruption could have also been aimed at discrediting Khamenei and his son. After all, all the cases mentioned happened under Ali Khamenei's watch.
Among the names of corrupt officials revealed by Palizdar are Mohammad Yazdi and Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, both former heads of Iran's all-powerful judiciary, and Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, a former parliament speaker and Mojtaba Khamenei’s father-in-law.
Palizdar said Yazdi, the first head of the judiciary after the 1979 revolution, held his position for 10. He added Yazdi used his position to secure control of Dena Tire Company for his family, seize 3,000 hectares of land in northern Iran, and even use seized judicial funds as personal property. Yazdi enjoyed Khamenei's support during his tenure.
Palizdar also accused Shahroudi, who led the judiciary for the next 10 years after Yazdi, of taking the Mouteh gold mine in Isfahan and cleric Mohammad Emami Kashani, Khamenei’s representative to lead Tehran Friday prayers, of taking the Dehbid stone mine in Fars province, among the biggest in the world.
Mojtaba Khamenei, now 55 years old, became more prominent in discussions of succession after Mehdi Karroubi, a cleric under house arrest, directly accused him of playing a critical role in securing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory in the 2005 presidential election.
In April 2023, a leaked document reportedly from a confidential meeting between senior IRGC commanders and the Supreme Leader suggested that Mojtaba Khamenei was actively pursuing the succession project. The document also implied that Mojtaba had begun influencing high-level appointments, bypassing figures such as Ebrahim Raisi, a former frontrunner for leadership.
The theory of Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession gained further attention following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash earlier this year.
Sadegh Mohammadi, Vice President of the General Assembly of the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom, described Mojtaba Khamenei as a “jurisprudent and Muslim scholar” in March. He also suggested that Mojtaba could be “one of the future leadership candidates.”
The outages, scheduled from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., are part of a government strategy to conserve fuel and reduce reliance on mazut, a pollutant-heavy oil, as power plants struggle to meet demand.
Although initial plans aimed to limit blackouts to certain provinces, the inclusion of Tehran province highlights the growing urgency of the situation. The new plan does not affect the capital itself but will result in power outages in surrounding cities and towns.
Iran’s energy infrastructure is grappling with one of its most challenging winters. Facing a critical natural gas, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration has prioritized avoiding the widespread burning of mazut, a high-sulfur fuel oil, as a substitute at major power plants in cities like Arak, Isfahan, and Karaj.
To mitigate mazut emissions, the government ordered planned blackouts, with power cuts announced across several provinces. By Sunday morning, Tehran’s electricity distribution company joined the list, publishing a blackout schedule before the website quickly became inaccessible due to traffic surges.
This measure has been presented as an environmental alternative to mazut, with officials citing health concerns associated with the fuel’s toxic emissions.
On November 7, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani supported the blackouts on social media, saying that “scheduled blackouts can temporarily replace toxic emissions” from mazut.
The fuel shortages have left power plants scrambling, with limited gas and diesel reserves forcing heavy reliance on mazut. As of mid-November, ministry of energy data indicates that gas supply to power plants dropped 30% compared to the previous year, with diesel reserves reduced to less than 1.26 billion liters. The drop in liquid fuel stocks comes after a 36% reduction from 2022, adding pressure to an already strained power grid.
Political justifications and public reactions
Amid this crisis, some government officials have placed partial blame on the public, saying that high domestic energy consumption is contributing to the shortages. Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah, executive deputy for Pezeshkian, urged citizens to lower heating use and electricity consumption, calling high demand a significant factor in the blackouts. He pointed to energy subsidies as part of the issue, suggesting that low prices encourage excessive consumption. However, critics argue that the government’s infrastructure management rather than consumer behavior, is the root of the crisis.
Chairman of the Board of the Electricity Syndicate Hassanali Taghizadeh has pushed back on claims that domestic use is disproportionately high, saying that Iranian households consume about half the electricity per capita compared to Europe.
“It’s wrong to say that public consumption is high. Our people consume far less electricity than the world, but we’re used to shifting blame onto them,” he said, calling for structural solutions rather than reliance on temporary blackouts.
Iran has the world's second largest natural gas reserves but years of negligence to invest in the gas fields and Western sanctions have reduced production.
Outlook on Iran’s energy policy
With around 80% of Iran’s electricity derived from thermal power plants reliant on gas, the administration faces mounting pressure to address what experts say is a systemic fuel shortages. Energy committee member Sepahvand said that without consistent gas supplies, disruptions may persist across both household and industrial sectors in the months ahead. Yet, long-term solutions, such as substantial investment in infrastructure or energy alternatives, remain elusive, leaving Iran reliant on interim measures like scheduled blackouts and continued mazut use.
Iran’s winter energy crisis has highlighted the country’s reliance on emergency measures, as officials grapple with a resource shortage exacerbated by decades of underinvestment. With blackouts set to continue, questions over energy policy and sustainability linger as winter sets in.
Immediately after Donald Trump’s election, Iranian officials and media sought to downplay its significance, while markets in Iran reacted negatively, anticipating a tougher US policy than under the Biden administration. However, this public stance now appears to be shifting.
The most notable call for efforts to lift sanctions came from former parliament speaker Ali Larijani in an interview with Khabar Online on Saturday. The seasoned Islamic Republic politician voiced serious concern over next year’s budget deficit, projected to exceed 30 percent and amounting to over $30 billion.
Larijani expressed dismay at the large budget deficit and emphasized that the only solution is a significant improvement in the economy. Although Iran always had deficits, but this year’s picture is worse than ever, he stressed. The only solution is to lift sanctions, he emphasized.
"These sanctions have become a barrier to our development. I’m not saying that removing them will solve everything, but it’s like a large stone has fallen into a stream. You need to remove that stone to allow the economy to flow smoothly. So, I believe we must make an effort to resolve this issue,” the former Speaker said.
So far, after six years of economic crisis, a year of conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional proxies, and Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has remained silent, giving no indication of whether he is open to major concessions. During Trump’s first term, he demanded that Iran halt its nuclear program, scale back missile development, and cease support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
The new president has yet to clarify his policy toward the Islamic Republic, but most observers agree he is likely to adopt a tough stance once again. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians, struggling with over 40% annual inflation, are increasingly eager for the government to show flexibility.
University professor Mehdi Motaharnia told a conservative website on Saturday that Donald Trump has returned to power stronger than ever, now supported by a Republican-majority Congress. While Trump emphasized his aversion to further conflicts during his campaign, Motaharnia noted that he is expected to take a tough stance on Iran.
"Regarding Iran, we will see an increase in tensions and sanctions. Trump will apply maximum pressure on Iran in an effort to push Tehran towards a new agreement. Trump believes in direct negotiations with Iran; he is even willing to personally engage with certain individuals in Iran,” Motaharnia argued. He added that while Trump is generally open to negotiations, the conditions he will set for Iran are likely to be stringent.
Mahmoud Jamsaz, a prominent academic and economist, emphasized that US political developments affect not only Iran but the entire world. Jamsaz, who has frequently spoken openly about the government’s misguided policies, argued that Iran is currently facing too many economic challenges to afford indifference to Trump’s election.
"In May 2018, when Mr. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, the country’s inflation sharply increased and has continued to rise ever since. Such conditions have had severely damaging effects on Iran’s economy,” Jamsaz said.
Within Iran’s restricted space of public discourse, the economist tried his best to sound a warning. "Trump has said he doesn’t have much interest in dealing with Iran, stating only that he will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. This is where the issue depends on Iran’s policies. If Iran shows some flexibility and, for example, the JCPOA is somehow revived, we would see a positive economic impact. But if we move in a direction other than flexibility, conditions will naturally become more difficult."