Do Trump's cabinet picks mean the writing is on the wall for Iran?

China presents the biggest possible challenge to the global standing of the United States, Jake Sullivan told reporters, but Iran poses a more direct threat.

"Then there's the most immediate issue, which is Iran and its proxy groups continue to take actions that directly threaten Americans and American interests in the Middle East, and that has to be dealt with on an urgent basis," Sullivan said.

Trump and Biden met in the Oval Office for around two hours a week after the former President trounced Vice President Kamala Harris in a decisive re-election which will give him broad leeway to reshape foreign and domestic policy.

Biden had attempted early in his tenure to revive an international deal on Iran's nuclear program from which Trump had withdrawn, saying the Obama-era agreement allowed Iran to shore up its finances and step up aid to armed allies in the Mideast.

In the intervening years, the Islamic Republic boosted revenues from oil sales, approached military grade uranium enrichment, aided Russia’s war in Ukraine and back allied armed groups in an ongoing region-wide fight against Israel.

Sullivan said he had disagreements with his incoming successor, former congressman and avowed Iran hawk Mike Waltz, but that he was prepared to work together for a smooth transition of power.

"He and I obviously don't see eye to eye on every issue, but I am very much looking forward to engaging him over these next 60 days, as I said, so that we can have this smooth handoff," Sullivan said.

The Biden administration would work toward the release of Israeli hostages and a ceasefire to wars in Gaza and Lebanon in the days that remain, Sullivan added.

Sanjari’s death has drawn attention to the plight of detainees and the worsening human rights situation in the country.

In the early hours of November 13, Sanjari posted an ultimatum on X, demanding the release of four political prisoners: Fatemeh Sepehri, Nasrin Shakarami, Toomaj Salehi, and Arsham Rezaei.

“If by 7 PM today... their release is not announced on the Judiciary’s news website, I will end my life in protest against Khamenei's dictatorship and his accomplices,” he wrote.

After that deadline passed, Sanjari shared an image of himself atop a bridge in Tehran, captioning: “It is 7 PM Hafez Bridge.”

Hours later, his death was confirmed by sources in Iran, including activist Hossein Ronaghi, who wrote on X: “We did everything we could, since last night, and today, but Kianoosh passed.”

A legacy of resistance

Sanjari was a vocal critic of Iran's clerical rulers and an advocate for democracy and human rights. He had been repeatedly arrested and imprisoned by Iranian authorities between 1999 and 2007 for his activism.

During his time behind bars, Sanjari endured solitary confinement and what he described as white torture, or psychological abuse through sensory deprivation that left deep emotional scars.

Sanjari fled Iran in 2007, receiving asylum in Norway with the assistance of Amnesty International. While abroad, he worked with rights group the Abdorrahman Boroumand Foundation and the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center and later was a journalist for Voice of America in Washington DC.

However, his commitment to family brought him back to Iran in 2016, where he was swiftly arrested and sentenced to 11 years in prison on politically motivated charges.

During his time in custody, Sanjari was subjected to repeated abuse, including forced hospitalization in psychiatric facilities and electric shock treatments. He once recounted: "At night the nurse injected me with something that locked my jaw... When I woke up, my hands and feet were chained to the bed."

Sanjari’s death comes amid ongoing campaigns by Iranian authorities to smother dissent. Since the Women, Life, Freedom protests ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, Iran executed at least nine protesters involved in the unrest and sentenced dozens more to death.

A call to action

The individuals Sanjari championed in his final message are key dissidents in Iran.

Fatemeh Sepehri, a political prisoner and vocal critic of the Islamic Republic, was imprisoned despite her heart condition. Nasrin Shakarami, mother of slain protester Nika Shakarami, was recently detained without clear charges. Toomaj Salehi, a rapper known for his protest songs, received the death penalty before the sentence was commuted to imprisonment. Arsham Rezaei, another political activist remains detained in Evin Prison..

Sanjari’s death echoes the suicide of 38-year-old Mohammad Moradi in Lyon, France, who drowned himself in December 2022 to draw international attention to Iran’s crackdown on human rights.

Before his death, Moradi recorded a video pleading for global support: “We want to change our country to a democratic country with equal rights for women and men.”

Human rights organizations have long criticized Iran’s judiciary for its lack of transparency and reliance on coerced confessions.

Domestically, the Islamic Republic's strategy of silencing dissent through intimidation and harsh penalties has fueled anger and resistance.

Sanjari's final words posed a rebuke to Iranians and the international community alike: “Perhaps it will be a wake-up call! Long live Iran.”

The charges against them remain contested, however, due to a lack of clear evidence linking them to the crime.

Babak Paknia, a lawyer, confirmed via social media on Wednesday that the 13th branch of Tehran’s Criminal Court had sentenced Milad Armoon, Alireza Kafa’i, Amir Mohammad Khosh Eqbal, Navid Najaran, Hossein Nemati, and Alireza Barmarzpournak to death under "qisas al-nafs"—the Islamic retributive death penalty. Paknia, who represents several of the accused, noted that the verdict is subject to appeal.

The case, tied to the broader unrest that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody, involves accusations that the defendants participated in the killing of Basij member Arman Aliverdi in the Shahrak-e Ekbatan neighborhood in western Tehran.

Security forces arrested 50 young residents of the neighborhood. The judiciary of the Islamic Republic then issued indictments for 14 individuals in connection with the case, among whom four defendants were charged with "moharebeh" (waging war against God).

Other charges in the case include "participation in premeditated murder" and "disruption of public order and peace."

A video circulating on social media showed Aliverdi, bleeding from the face and head as a protester kicked him. Authorities claim protesters also stabbed him, but the defendants have denied the allegations, and residents of Ekbatan say that Aliverdi had been trying to infiltrate the protests.

The controversy surrounding the case is compounded by reports of torture and mistreatment of the accused, with human rights organizations expressing concern over the fairness of the trial.

The incidents in Ekbatan unfolded amid the protests, during which, the Basij, along with plainclothes security officers, targeted demonstrators. In Ekbatan, Basij forces frequently shot at windows, raided apartment lobbies, and destroyed property to intimidate residents.

The Basij, ever-present in the area, maintain four bases within the five-square-kilometer complex which houses 15,500 apartments and a population of approximately 45,000.

Government forces frequently deployed tear gas and fired pellets at protesters chanting "Death to Khamenei" and "Down with the Dictator" each night and carried out arrests both inside and outside the buildings.

Prominent political activist Hossein Ronaghi, in reaction to the sentences, wrote on X: "The issuance of death sentences for the Ekbatan children signifies the transformation of the judiciary into a weapon for silencing opponents and protesters."

The case also highlights the wider pattern of measures by Iranian authorities to suppress dissent. Human rights groups have pointed out that the trials of protest-related defendants often suffer from a lack of transparency and fail to adhere to international legal standards.

So far, nine individuals have been executed in connection with the protests, with several others facing similar charges. These include Mohammad Mehdi Karami, Mohammad Ghobado, Mohsen Shekari, and Majidreza Rahnavard, among others.

As Iran’s judiciary continues to crack down on protesters, concerns over human rights violations and the fairness of trials have escalated.

Asif W. Rahman was indicted last week in a Virginia federal court on two counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information, the newspaper reported citing court documents and informed sources.

The FBI apprehended Rahman in Cambodia on Tuesday, later transferring him to federal court in Guam to face charges.

The leaked information pertains to intelligence from US satellites detailing preparations for an Israeli air assault on Iran, aimed at retaliation for an October 1 missile attack on Israel.

Two US intelligence documents dated October 15 and 16, originally restricted to the "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States), appeared last month on the pro-Iran Telegram channel Middle East Spectator as Israel geared up to respond to the barrage of 181 ballistic missiles.

The platform’s X account lists its location as the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In a public statement, Middle East Spectator denied any direct connection to the original source of the leaks, saying, “we assume [it to be] a whistleblower within the US State Department.”

In October, Holden Tripplet, a former FBI counterintelligence official, shared his insights with Iran International, noting, “The leak, if done without official sanction by the US government, may have been intended to dissuade an Israeli strike or at least limit the overall retaliatory response.”

However, Tripplet, who served 15 years in the FBI, suggested this may be just the beginning, adding, “There may have been other documents leaked along with those, which would likely indicate someone within the US government disillusioned with US policy toward Israel. They may be attempting to damage the broader relationship.”

The leak sparked widespread criticism, with now President-elect Donald Trump taking to social media in October to intensify his attacks on the Biden-Harris administration.

“Israel has been seriously damaged and compromised … MUST FIND THE LEAKER! Israel no longer wants to share documents with the US, and who can blame them!” the former President posted on Truth Social.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton also formally appealed to President Biden, requesting biweekly briefings on the progress of the investigation into the leak.

“This leak is an outrageous betrayal of an ally and a breach of trust that will undermine our relationship with partners for years to come,” wrote Cotton, a senior member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, in a letter published by the Washington Free Beacon.

Pundits say besides a mutual wish to help bring the war in Gaza and Lebanon to an end, intertwined security interests play a decisive role in the significant but cautious recent improvement of relations between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.

They say Tehran may be wary of the fact that Donald Trump’s presidency and an end to the war in Gaza and Lebanon may push Saudi Arabia forward in the path of joining the Abraham Pact and normalizing its relations with Israel.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which broke its diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016, have already established normal diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv.

This, they believe, can completely isolate Tehran in the region at a time when sanctions have drastically damaged its economy and the threat of an all-out war with Israel hangs over its head.

“Trump’s foreign policy regarding the Persian Gulf region [during his first term] was generally giving carte blanche to Saudi Arabia and Israel while conducting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran,” Javad Heiran-Nia, director of Persian Gulf Studies at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies, wrote Tuesday in an article published by the Iranian think-tank.

This situation, he said, could entail a US-led military coalition with Israel and Persian Gulf Arab countries to be formed. “In response, Iran has been trying to improve its relations with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates and prevent a unified US-Israeli-Arab air defense system from forming,” Heiran-Nia wrote, adding that that further convergence of Persian Gulf Arab states with Israel could tip the balance of power against the Islamic Republic and its allies in the region.

Heiran-Nia also argued that realizing that the United States was not going to give it military support against the Islamic Republic, Saudi Arabia wanted to be “a supporter of order in the region rather than a leader” after Iran-backed Houthis’ attack launched rockets and drones on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Jeddah and Riadh, has pushed Saudi Arabia to adjust its policies regarding Iran with less reliance on the United States.

Besides hoping that the Saudis could help to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon to an end, some pundits have also suggested that Iran may be counting on Riadh to play a mediatory role between Tehran and Washington when Trump takes office given the Saudi's traditional good relations with US Republicans and Trump.

“Let’s keep in mind that after the Zionist regime, it is Saudi Arabia that has the most and the strongest lobbies in the power centers of the United States, whether in the Republican Party or among Democrats, and its power of playing a role in improvement or sabotaging relations between Tehran and Washington should not be underestimated,” Persian Gulf region analyst Vahid Pour-Tajrishi wrote in Tahlil-e Bazar Tuesday.

Iran's backing of Shia Houthis has been a thorny issue in Tehran-Riadh relations. Some analysts have pointed out that Riadh, in turn, may be hoping Iran would help end years of conflict with Yemen.

The normalization of Tehran-Riadh relations on political and military levels will have a positive impact on the situation in Yemen alongside the mediatory role that Oman is currently playing between Riadh and Sanaa, journalist and political analyst Salah Al-Saqladi wrote in an article Monday entitled “Saudi-Iranian Military Coordination: What Does This Mean for Yemen” in Rai al-Youm, an Arab world digital news and opinion website.

Political analyst Ruhollah Rahimpour in a tweet Wednesday has also argued that while Iran's state media present Mohammed Bin Salman’s support for Iran as an achievement for the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, the move helps define a “leading role in the Islamic world” for the de facto Saudi ruler and leaves Iran in his debt to prevent future challenges from Tehran to this role.

Riadh broke its diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016 when an ultra-hardliner mob attacked and vandalized the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad with Iranian security forces allegedly giving them free reign to burn diplomatic property and documents.

The attack came after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shia cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, and the Revolutionary Guards’ promise of “harsh revenge” against the Saudis.

The two countries came nearly to the brink of a war in 2019 following the Houthis attack on Saudi oil facilities.

In 2021, Iraq initiated a mediatory effort to reconcile Tehran and Riadh which led to an agreement in March 2023 to resume their diplomatic relations. The agreement was surprisingly signed not in Baghdad but in Beijing which has deepened its relations, not only with the Islamic Republic, but also with Saudi Arabia in the past few years.