Iran's rial hits record low amid growing uncertainty

IHR noted that the charge of collaborating with Israel against 26-year-old Shayesteh, who was arrested last year, was based on confessions obtained under torture and used to expedite his death sentence. The human rights group emphasized the lack of evidence in the case, pointing out that "an empty handgun magazine" and "a pepper spray" were presented as proof of "possession of illegal weapons" to support the charge of "collaboration with the enemy."

"The Islamic Republic is experiencing its greatest crises in its history and, to prevent public protests and cover up its regional failures, resorts to intimidation through the execution of defenseless prisoners," Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, Director of IHR, tweeted on Friday.

In recent months, Iranian authorities have escalated their use of the death penalty, with human rights groups reporting that over 42 political prisoners currently face the risk of execution.

According to a November 21 report by HRANA, at least 133 executions were documented in the past month alone, averaging more than four per day. This follows data from the Iran Human Rights Organization, which recorded at least 166 executions in October.

HRANA’s reports reveal an annual average of 811 executions between October 2023 and October 2024, encompassing both political detainees and ordinary prisoners.

This surge in executions coincides with rising tensions between Iran and Israel, with some suggesting that the government is leveraging geopolitical crises to distract from its domestic repression.

Mohammad Eslami attributed the decision to Iran’s growing uranium enrichment activities, describing the enhanced inspections as a natural consequence of the program's expansion.

“As the scale of nuclear activities grows, the level of inspections must also rise,” Eslami said, without elaborating on the specifics of the increased monitoring.

The development follows reports based on a confidential IAEA document, indicating that Iran had agreed to more frequent and rigorous inspections at the Fordow nuclear site.

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had significantly accelerated its uranium enrichment at levels of up to 60% purity—nearing the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material—at the Fordow facility. Western powers have labeled this development a highly serious escalation in their ongoing standoff with Iran over its nuclear program.

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency clarified that the increased monitoring pertains to the number of inspections rather than a larger deployment of inspectors.

In addition, Eslami acknowledged efforts to address two unresolved older cases related to undeclared nuclear materials.

"‌We will engage with the IAEA regarding the two remaining locations to close the cases."

The IAEA Board of Governors, however, remains troubled by the past discovery of undeclared nuclear materials at several sites and Iran’s failure to fully account for them.

Last month, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution urging Iran to enhance its cooperation with the agency. The resolution, proposed by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United States, expressed profound concern over Iran's insufficient cooperation and the unresolved safeguards issues, emphasizing the necessity for Iran to fulfill its legal obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently estimated that Iran possesses enough uranium enriched to 60% to potentially produce several nuclear bombs if the material were further enriched to 90%. This alarming threshold has intensified concerns among Western powers.

Eslami, however, pushed back against international criticism, accusing “certain entities, especially Israel, of fearmongering about Iran’s nuclear activities.”

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though officials have increasingly alluded to the potential pursuit of nuclear weapons in recent statements.

The heightened scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear program comes amid reports of attacks on its nuclear facilities, which Tehran has often attributed to Israel. Simultaneously, debates about preemptive military action against Iran have gained traction in the United States. A Wall Street Journal report on Friday said that members of President-elect Donald Trump’s team are considering military options to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including airstrikes.

In an interview with Time magazine, Trump, recently named Person of the Year, left open the possibility of military action, further stoking tensions. These discussions add to a growing sense of urgency as Iran’s enrichment activities continue and the IAEA demands greater transparency.

Kamran Ghazanfari, speaking at a conference on Thursday, said the Islamic Republic’s account was laughable and hinted at a deliberate assassination plot involving foreign powers.

“Everyone would laugh at the officials’ explanation that Raisi’s helicopter crashed due to weather conditions and dense clouds,” Ghazanfari added.

“What a smart dense cloud it must have been to specifically target the middle helicopter [out of three], which happened to be Raisi’s.”

Ghazanfari provided no evidence to support his accusation, which comes amid a turbulent political climate in Iran following its latest significant regional setbacks. The downfall of Syria's Bashar al-Assad in particular has rattled the Iranian government and its top leadership.

Ahmad Ardestani, a member of Parliament’s National Security Committee, previously speculated that Raisi’s death could be linked to the explosion of a pager he carried, referencing a string of coordinated blasts in September targeting Hezbollah communication devices in Lebanon and Syria.

The explosions, which left over 40 dead and caused numerous civilian casualties, were widely attributed to a sophisticated operation by Israel’s Mossad, though Israel officially denied involvement.

The US State Department also denied any connection to the helicopter crash, with spokesperson Matthew Miller confirming Tehran sought assistance in the crash aftermath but that logistical constraints prevented American involvement.

“We were asked for assistance by the Iranian government. We did make clear to them that we would offer assistance, as we would do in response to any request by a foreign government in this sort of situation,” Miller said in May.

“Ultimately, largely for logistical reasons, we were unable to provide that assistance.”

Leadership rivalries and theories of internal motive

Beyond accusations of foreign sabotage, some Iranians have speculated about internal political motives for Raisi’s death. Mehdi Nasiri, a former editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, pointed to potential rivalries surrounding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s succession.

Nasiri suggested Raisi’s helicopter crash might have been orchestrated by those seeking to bolster Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as his father’s successor.

“In the last session of the previous Assembly of Experts, representatives spoke about Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership, which was met with reactions from figures like Raisi and others,” Nasiri said.

He highlighted how Raisi’s death coincided with leadership changes within the Assembly, including the exclusion of key figures opposed to Mojtaba’s succession.

The death of Raisi, along with the assassination of figures such as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has fueled speculation about heightened foreign and domestic threats to Iranian leadership. Israel, while denying involvement in Raisi’s crash or other killings, has not shied away from targeting figures connected to Iran’s regional allies and nuclear program. An unnamed Israeli official told Reuters in May, “It wasn’t us.”

Despite these denials, figures like Ghazanfari continue to spotlight foreign interference as a likely cause of Raisi’s death, reflecting the tensions that define Iran’s complex relationships with its adversaries.

Mohammad Marandi, speaking about a possible US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, tweeted, “Slight problem. The US Al Udeid air base in is tiny Qatar. In case of aggression, the natural gas facilities and infrastructure in Qatar will be totally destroyed. Hence, there will be no natural gas from Doha. Hence, there will be no Qatar. Things won’t end there either…”

The post on X was apparently later deleted, but some websites in Tehran had republished the text of the tweet.

Marandi's remarks are surprising given Doha's close relations with Tehran and its mediating role between Iran and Western countries.

Although Tehran’s government media did not report about the tweet, some semi-independent websites simply reported it.

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a prominent foreign policy expert and former senior lawmaker known for his critical stance on foreign policy issues, responded with his own tweet refraining from naming Marandi.

“...and this time, a threat to attack #Qatar.
For years, a dangerous faction has been undermining opportunities for de-escalation and lifting sanctions on Iran, while simultaneously pushing to make the country's foreign policy self-destructive.”

In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting disruption in Europe’s energy supplies, Marandi opposed reaching a nuclear deal with the West. He argued that as Europe faced a harsh winter, it would ultimately capitulate to Iran’s demands. Eighteen months of multilateral negotiations collapsed in September of that year.

Now, two years later, Iran is facing a severe energy crisis. Decades of underinvestment have significantly reduced natural gas production and electricity supplies, resulting in widespread blackouts across the country. While internal mismanagement has played a role, US sanctions are widely regarded as a key factor behind the deterioration of Iran’s infrastructure.

The annual Country Reports on Terrorism (CRT) mandated by Congress has consistently named Iran thus since 1984, citing its extensive support for groups designated as terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

While other countries, such as Syria, North Korea, and Cuba, have been listed as "state sponsors of terrorism" in the report, Iran is consistently singled out as the most prominent actor, a designation it has held since five years after the inception of the Islamic Republic following the 1979 revolution.

No country preceded it in the designation.

The latest 2023 CRT report released on Thursday evening accused Iran of facilitating a wide range of "terrorist and other illicit activities," primarily through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF).

“Through the IRGC-QF, Iran provided funding, training, weapons, and equipment to several US-designated terrorist groups in the region responsible for conducting these destabilizing attacks,” the report said.

Following Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel, Iranian-backed groups exploited the conflict to advance their objectives, the report said.

“Although there is no evidence that Iran knew about Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel in advance, its long-standing material, financial, and training support to Hamas enabled Hamas to execute the attack,” the report added.

In Iraq and Syria, Iran supported Iranian-aligned militia groups (IAMGs), including Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, with advanced weapons, training and funding.

“Iranian forces have backed militia operations in Syria and Iraq directly, with artillery, rockets, drones and armored vehicles,” the report noted, emphasizing Tehran’s use of routes through Syria to arm Hezbollah and other groups.

The report also highlighted Iran’s support for Hezbollah in propping up the President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

“Hezbollah fighters have been used extensively in Syria to support the Assad regime,” the report said, adding that Iran viewed Assad as a crucial ally. The report also documented Iran’s role in recruiting Shia fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to bolster the Assad regime, often through financial incentives or coercion.

The report further accused Iran of providing weapons, such as drones and missiles, to the Houthis in Yemen, who intensified attacks on civilian shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting maritime commerce and global trade. The Houthis also seized commercial vessels and attacked Israel with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Beyond the region, Iran was accused of orchestrating or supporting plots against dissidents and other perceived enemies abroad, including an assassination attempt on an Iranian dissident in New York City and targeting Israeli and Jewish individuals in Cyprus.

The report also detailed threats against Iran International, noting, “In 2023, a United Kingdom court convicted a man for attempting to gather information for terrorist purposes.”

Iran had hosted senior al-Qa’ida leaders, the State Department further alleged.

“Iran has allowed al-Qa’ida facilitators to operate a core transit pipeline through Iran since at least 2009, enabling al-Qa’ida to move funds and fighters to South Asia and Syria, among other locales,” it said.

The report further accused Iran of violating international laws by attacking commercial vessels in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

As in the previous year, the State Department concluded that the IRGC-QF remains Tehran’s primary mechanism for cultivating and supporting "terrorist" activity abroad and emphasized Iran’s use of proxies to shield itself from accountability while promoting destabilizing policies globally.