Return to sender: IRGC outlet calls Trump letter a Psyop, insists deal done

Russia is an active geopolitical player with its own vested interests, Nematollah Izadi told ILNA News Agency on Friday.

"There is no doubt the Russians are interested in mediating between Iran and the US, but whether they can do so effectively remains in doubt," Izadi said. "They play a role in regional issues concerning Iran, the US, and Europe and have their own interests. Therefore, they cannot be impartial mediators."

He also urged Iran to adopt a balanced foreign policy, warning against over-reliance on a single ally.

"If Iran fails to do so, all of its foreign policy ‘eggs’ will end up in Russia’s basket—and most likely China’s as well," he said. "This will undoubtedly have negative consequences, as it will limit Iran’s options."

His remarks come following an alarming report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier this week.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi revealed that Iran had significantly increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, raising further concerns over its nuclear intentions.

Grossi also acknowledged that Western sanctions have failed to curb Tehran’s nuclear expansion, with its program growing significantly in recent years.

“Sanctions aren’t working,” Grossi told Bloomberg. “Quite obviously, the country has learned to circumvent them. The program has grown enormously, especially since 2018.”

The IAEA has consistently argued that there is no credible civilian use for uranium enriched to 60%, as it is just a short technical step from weapons-grade (90%) uranium.

Russia’s expanding role in Iran talks

As Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West intensifies, Russia has positioned itself as a key diplomatic actor, proposing talks with Washington.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov met with Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali on Thursday to discuss international efforts to resolve issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Friday.

Moscow has agreed to assist the US in communicating with Iran on various issues, including its nuclear program and support for regional anti-US proxies, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, later confirmed by the Kremlin.

The report, later picked up by Russian state media, quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that "Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations" and that Moscow "is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this."

Last month, before the Russian offer of mediation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran, where both sides "aligned their positions" on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal that unraveled following the US withdrawal in 2018.

Additionally, in an exclusive interview with BBC Persian, Russia’s IAEA envoy Mikhail Ulyanov dismissed Western concerns about Iran’s uranium enrichment, calling US and European warnings a "political pressure tactic."

"Our Western colleagues seem to think the Middle East is too calm, and they want to add fuel to the fire," Ulyanov said.

Missile program and regional influence: a key sticking point

A major sticking point in nuclear negotiations is whether talks will include Iran’s missile program and regional influence, issues that the US insists must be addressed in any new deal, but Tehran and Moscow reject.

"Negotiations should not include Iran’s missile program or its regional influence," Ulyanov said. "Adding these topics would complicate the process and make it unmanageable."

This mirrors the original 2015 JCPOA, which focused solely on Iran’s nuclear program while excluding its missile program and regional activities, a framework Iran insists must remain unchanged.

Iran's shift away from the West

Izadi’s concerns over Russia’s mediation come amid Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ban on negotiations with the United States, issued in early February after President Donald Trump announced plans to intensify sanctions. Trump called for an agreement that would permanently prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Khamenei has long pushed for closer ties with Russia and China, rejecting reliance on the US and Europe, a stance that has hardened since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and renewed sanctions.

This shift has had domestic political consequences, most notably in the forced resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former Foreign Minister who negotiated the JCPOA.

Moscow's entrance onto the scene either flips an Iranian ally against its nuclear ambitions or provides a spoiler which drags out talks and buys the Islamic Republic a breather from looming Israeli strikes.

The initiative follows a direct request from US President Donald Trump during a phone call on February 12, 2025, with subsequent discussions taking place between top officials from both administrations in Saudi Arabia.

The Kremlin has expressed its commitment to facilitating peaceful negotiations between Washington and Tehran. This positions Russia as a key intermediary, leveraging its established relationships with both nations.

Historically, Switzerland has been acting as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington since the early 1980s. Several Arab states have also offered their mediation services on various occasions, including the Sultanate of Oman, Qatar, and, more recently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Russia’s diplomatic involvement, however, presents a different dynamic.

Deep state access

As a global power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia has cultivated a strong security partnership with Iran, particularly since the onset of the Ukraine war in February 2022.

Russia’s unique access to Iran’s deep state provides President Putin with significant leverage to pressure Iranian decision-makers into making nuclear concessions—an essential step in preventing military escalation in the coming months.

From Iran’s perspective, Russian involvement in resolving the “Iranian nuclear problem,” as Russian officials term it, presents both an opportunity and a challenge.

Under Russian diplomatic oversight, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may find it more difficult to maintain his strategy of nuclear escalation vis-à-vis the Trump Administration, including rhetorical threats to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and outright rejection of negotiations.

Tehran might become more open to indirect and discreet dialogue with Washington if Moscow encourages it to do so.

Unlikely boon

Beyond the potential impact on Iran’s nuclear strategy, Russia’s mediating role offers the Iranian political establishment a means to achieve its primary goal: avoiding both war and substantive nuclear or regional negotiations with Washington during Trump’s second term (2025-2029).

A Russian diplomatic intermediary could help ensure the security and survival of the Islamic Republic, deterring a potential US-backed Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But the shifting balance of power following a US-Russia rapprochement means Iran could once again become a bargaining chip in renewed US-Russian diplomatic negotiations at the presidential level.

In other words, a closer Trump-Putin relationship could reduce Tehran’s strategic relevance in Moscow’s eyes. This short-term marginalization of Iran does not signify the end of its pragmatic partnership with Russia but rather the potential reemergence of US influence over Iranian decision-making through Russian mediation.

Since the early 2020s, Iran has advanced its uranium enrichment activities, prompting international concerns over possible nuclear weapon development—claims that Tehran consistently denies despite growing internal political debate on potential nuclear militarization.

The US remains steadfast in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, working closely with allies like Israel to address these concerns. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief, has been under strain, especially following the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018.

This led Iran to deviate from its commitments. A potential future Russian mediating role could temper the Trump Administration’s inclination to align with Israel’s hardline approach against Iran’s nuclear advancements, potentially reducing the likelihood of an Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Mideast: Russian returns

Beyond the Iranian nuclear issue and regional policy, Russia’s recent diplomatic manoeuvres underscore its ambitions to reassert its role in Middle Eastern affairs in the post-October 7 era.

This potential return is facilitated by its ongoing rapprochement with Washington and the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025.

The proposal to restore direct air links between the US and Russia, discussed during negotiations in Istanbul, signifies a potential thaw in relations. Talks also addressed the normalization of embassy operations, reflecting a mutual interest in improving diplomatic and economic ties.

However, Russia’s deepening ties with Iran add complexity to its role as a mediator, especially in the context of rising military tensions between Iran and Israel, the US’s primary ally in the region.

In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive 20-year strategic partnership agreement covering defense, technology, energy, and trade sectors. While this partnership strengthens bilateral relations, it may also compromise Russia’s impartiality in mediating US-Iran tensions.

Looking ahead, Russian mediation could lead to renewed negotiations aimed at reviving or restructuring a nuclear agreement that addresses the shortcomings of the JCPOA.

Such an agreement could ease some economic sanctions on Iran while implementing stricter nuclear oversight. However, the success of these efforts will depend on the willingness of both the US and Iran to engage in constructive dialogue and make necessary concessions.

Russia's strategic interests and geopolitical priorities—particularly in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine—will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes of these diplomatic initiatives in the coming months.

The joint statement by the grouping calling itself the quad follows a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) saying Iran had sharply increased its stockpile of enriched uranium enough, if refined further, to make six atom bombs.

"Our patience has been long, but it is not unlimited," UK Ambassador Corinne Kitsell said on behalf of the quad in a letter to the IAEA.

The statement marked an escalation of Western rhetoric on the disputed program which Tehran insists is peaceful but could be the focus of a potential military strike by arch-foe Israel after the rivals have battled throughout the Mideast for over a year.

"Until now, Iran has made its choice. Let us be clear: unless Iran changes course, it will force the (IAEA) Board to make its own choice. Time is not on Iran’s side," Kitsell added.

"Iran has instead chosen a path of escalation, obfuscation, and delay. Iran must be held to account if it continues along this path."

At issue is the potential designation of Iran by the IAEA board as "noncompliant" in the watchdog's next quarterly meeting in June, which could trigger a referral of the issue to the UN Security Council in an uncomfortable move for the isolated theocracy.

The United States on Tuesday said Iran's accelerating nuclear program is imperiling world peace and either aims to get Tehran closer to a bomb or extort the world to extract concessions.

The European Union urged Iran to immediately halt and reverse its accelerating nuclear program.

They were responding IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's report to the body's board the previous day that Iran's uranium stock refined to up to 60% purity grew by 92.5 kilograms (kg) in the past quarter to 274.8 kg.

That amount, according to an IAEA yardstick, is enough in principle for six nuclear bombs.

Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA said on Wednesday that European parties to a now mostly lapsed 2015 international deal over Iran's nuclear program lacked the standing to trigger a so-called snapback of UN sanctions on Tehran over non-compliance.

Such a move would deal a further blow to Iran's heavily sanctioned economy as economic malaise and political polarization have deepened.

Speaking during a meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Governors on Wednesday, Mohsen Naziri Asl accused Britain, France and Germany (known as the E3) of violating both the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 – the basis for the deal.

"Since the E3 are in violation of Resolution 2231 and the JCPOA, they lack the legal and moral standing to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism in response to Iran's limited and legitimate actions, which are explicitly recognized in the JCPOA," he said.

He argued that they had no grounds to reactivate the dispute process in response to what he called Iran’s legitimate measures, which he said were explicitly permitted under the agreement.

“Any attempt to trigger the dispute mechanism or pursue this futile path is legally baseless, unjust and unlawful, and will be firmly rejected,” he added.

The snapback mechanism allows for the reinstatement of United Nations sanctions on Iran if it is deemed to have violated the JCPOA.

Iran has progressively reduced its compliance with the nuclear deal in response to the United States' 2018 withdrawal from the agreement and the subsequent reimposition of sanctions, including reducing access to IAEA inspectors.

The E3 has repeatedly expressed concern over Iran's nuclear activities, but Tehran maintains its actions are justified and within the framework of the JCPOA.

During another session of the IAEA Board of Governors on Tuesday, the European Union warned that Iran’s continued nuclear expansion poses a growing risk of proliferation, calling on Tehran to return to its commitments under 2015 deal and adhere to UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

The United States also said Iran's accelerating nuclear program is imperiling world peace and either aims to get Tehran closer to a bomb or force the world to ease sanctions.

The statement was delivered in Vienna during the quarterly meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors on Tuesday.

“The EU remains deeply concerned by the continued alarming expansion of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has gravely departed from its the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) commitments and has gained irreversible knowledge.

"The EU notes with particular concern Iran’s significantly increased production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium and the expansion of its nuclear enrichment capability and operations,” the EU representative in Vienna said.

The EU praised IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and his team for their independent monitoring and reaffirmed that ensuring Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon remains a key security priority.

“We call on all countries to support the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015) endorsing the JCPOA, which provides the basis for the IAEA's monitoring and reporting. We regret that Iran has not made the necessary decisions to return to its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA.”

According to the EU, Iran’s uranium enrichment has reached levels that raise significant proliferation concerns. “The DG’s report documents a sharp increase of material enriched at 60% which is now produced at an unprecedented rate, with a 50% increase in the reporting period," the statement said.

"Iran already accumulated more than 6 significant quantities of 60% enriched material [which the Agency defines as the approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded] and is currently producing one significant quantity of highly enriched uranium every month.”

The EU also condemned Iran’s decision to remove JCPOA-related surveillance and monitoring equipment, arguing that it has compromised the IAEA’s ability to verify the nature of Iran’s nuclear activities.

In addition, the EU criticized Iran’s rejection of four additional IAEA inspectors on the back of 2023's ban around one third of the inspectors.

“We echo the DG’s deep regret that Iran, despite having initially accepted to consider it, has finally refused the designation of four additional experienced inspectors recently proposed by the Agency," a statement said.

The United States also said on Tuesday that Iran's accelerating nuclear program is imperiling world peace and either aims to get Tehran closer to a bomb or extort the world to extract concessions.

Tehran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and has branded suspicions over its intentions as a way for outside powers to meddle in internal affairs.

Grossi reported that Iran's uranium stock refined to up to 60% purity grew by 92.5 kilograms (kg) in the past quarter to 274.8 kg. According to an IAEA parameter, the amount is enough in principle for six nuclear bombs if enriched further.

Trump has mooted a deal over the program but Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ruled out talks while the administration imposes 'maximum pressure' policies including toughened sanctions.