A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader urges the government to cede more economic control to the people, arguing that this is necessary to address sanctions, soaring inflation, and a rapidly depreciating currency.
By some estimates, 80% of Iran’s economy is controlled directly and indirectly by the state or affiliated religious foundations operating under Ali Khamenei’s orders.
Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Khamenei, told the Eco Iran website that “what Iran’s economy needs is security, and that does not mean control by security institutions,” a clear jab at the influence of the IRGC and other forces.
Criticizing the involvement of security organizations in the economy, Larijani, a former parliamentary speaker, said Iran’s economy should be controlled by the people rather than the government. He also called for administrative reforms, global engagement, and resolving Iran’s nuclear issue through dialogue.
Larijani emphasized that "the government controls some 85 percent of Iran's industries and mines," but argued that it lacks the efficiency to manage these sectors effectively.
He also stressed the need for the government to ensure security for the private sector by passing relevant laws and persuading the Supreme Leader to support the move.
Speaking on Iran's foreign policy and negotiations with the United States, Larijani stated, "If the Americans had acted wisely, they could have changed the course of Washington's relationship with Tehran." He argued that US sanctions have hindered Iran’s economic development, emphasizing that economic prosperity is unattainable under such restrictions.
Washington imposed oil export and international banking sanctions on Iran after President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018. Iran’s already struggling economy, burdened by inefficiencies, immediately sank into a prolonged recession, while its currency depreciated 25-fold.
Regarding the future of nuclear negotiations, Larijani stated, "Everything depends on US behavior. There is a gap between what the United States declares and what it actually does." He also emphasized that Iran should pursue its national interests in both the East and the West.
Meanwhile, in an interview with a Tehran-based website, Iranian economist Ali Ghanbari, addressing the current financial crisis, noted that some Iranian politicians appear to overlook the fundamental principle that every country must prioritize its own national interests.
Ghanbari stated, "Realistically speaking, it is unlikely that the country's economic situation—regarding inflation, poverty, and unemployment—will improve significantly compared to last year, as Iran's economy remains constrained by structural issues in foreign policy that are beyond the government's control."
The economist added, "We cannot expect any improvement in the country's economic situation as long as sanctions pressure continues." He noted that this is in addition to the broader issue of insufficient domestic and foreign investment in Iran.
Ghanbari stressed that the defining characteristic of Iran's economic policy is "confusion," a problem that has become even more evident following the impeachment and dismissal of the former Minister of Economy.
As a way forward, Ghanbari suggested that Iran should abandon the idea of indirect talks and engage in direct negotiations with the United States, arguing that intermediaries only complicate the process.
He also urged the government to prioritize its employees to safeguard its social capital. At the same time, he emphasized that if Iran is serious about easing tensions and sanctions in the coming year, it must carefully select its strategic partners, a veiled reference to Tehran’s preference for close ties with China and Russia.
While both Larijani and Ghanbari emphasized the need to address foreign policy challenges to resolve Iran’s economic woes, analyst Hamid Aboutalebi suggested that a new path for dialogue with the United States may have emerged. Writing on the conservative Nameh News website in Tehran, he pointed to recent conciliatory remarks by Trump’s Middle East adviser, Steve Witkoff, as a potential opening.
Aboutalebi further argued that the Iranian government should move away from propaganda campaigns against Washington and pursue direct negotiations to de-escalate tensions.
An analysis of discrepancies between tanker tracking data and China’s customs records shows Iran is using forged documents not only from Iraq, but also from the United Arab Emirates, Oman and especially Malaysia to export oil to China.
Hayyan Abdul-Ghani, Iraq’s oil minister, recently said that Iranian tankers use forged Iraqi documents to circumvent sanctions and the issue has been reported to the United States. Iran’s oil ministry dismissed these remarks as “negative and malicious propaganda.”
The Iraq case
Regarding Iraq specifically, data from Kpler, a commodity intelligence firm, and Iraqi domestic sources indicate that last year Iraq exported 1.19 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil to China.
However, Chinese customs reported receiving 1.276 mbpd from Iraq.
In simpler terms, Iran disguised a total of 31 million barrels of its crude oil (equivalent to 86,000 bpd) as Iraqi oil and shipped it to China last year.
Statistics indicate that the practice has been underway since at least 2023. However, formal acknowledgment by Iraqi officials appears to have followed the tightening of Iran sanctions enforcement by the new US administration under President Donald Trump. Abdul-Ghani also noted that Baghdad has received reports of US naval forces seizing tankers in the Persian Gulf carrying Iraqi documents, but said Washington has been informed the documents are forged.
Iran’s LPG, mazut exports under the Iraqi brand
Since 2016, Iraq has been an LPG exporter. Kpler’s data shows that Iraq’s LPG exports surged last year, primarily due to the launch of a new oil refinery in Baghdad.
This development has further enabled Iran to sell its own LPG under Iraqi brand.
While China—importing a third of Iraq’s oil—does not purchase Iraqi LPG, but other Asian countries like Bangladesh do.
Several months ago, the head of Bangladesh’s Association of LPG Traders and Distributors sent a letter to the government and the central bank, warning about the entry of Iranian LPG shipments into the country with forged documents. The letter specifically mentioned a 10,000-ton LPG shipment carried by the vessel G YMM, which arrived in August under the branding of Iraq’s Basra Gas Company. However, in September of last year, the Basra Gas Company told Bangladesh’s Business Standard newspaper that this vessel had never loaded cargo from Iraq.
Additionally, Lloyd’s Listrecently estimated that over half of LPG cargoes claiming Iraqi origin may actually be Iranian.
Kpler data seen by Iran International reveals that Iran’s daily LPG exports soared to 330,000 bpd last year—2.5 times the 2020 level. Annual revenue from LPG exports (propane and butane) exceeds $10 billion, making it a significant component of Iran’s petroleum exports.
Previously, Reuters cited industry and trade sources in reporting a complex network in Iraq used for exporting Iranian fuel oil (mazut).
Kpler’s data shows that Iran loaded 230,000 bpd of mazut last year for export. This is a significant portion of its daily shipments of crude and other oil products.
There have been numerous reports about Iran’s use of forged documents to export oil and petroleum products under the names of the UAE, Oman, and particularly Malaysia.
The peculiar case of Malaysia
Kpler previously told Iran International that around 60% of Iran’s oil reaches China under the label of Malaysian crude.
Commenting on Iran’s rebranding tactics, the tanker-tracking firm TankerTrackers told Iran International: “Apart from Chinese data, there is no definitive way to determine the exact volume of rebranded Iranian oil. However, discrepancies in China’s import figures reveal the pattern—for example, when customs report 1.5 million barrels per day from Malaysia, but Malaysia’s actual exports are only a fraction of that.”
Samir Madani, an analyst at the firm, added: “If ship-to-ship transfers occur near Iranian waters and then head directly to China, the oil is most likely recorded as Iraqi or Omani crude. If the transfers take place in Riau, it’s reported as Malaysian.”
One striking discrepancy: Malaysia produces less than 570,000 barrels per day, yet Chinese customs data shows it imported 1.4 million barrels per day from Malaysia last year. Much of that volume is Iranian oil, along with some sanctioned Russian and Venezuelan crude.
Since US oil export sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2018 and 2019, Malaysia’s oil production has actually declined by 20%. Yet, its crude oil exports to China have increased eightfold over the same period.
Neither the Malaysian nor Chinese government has offered an explanation for how Malaysia’s exports to China are triple its total production capacity. The discrepancy, however, underscores the previous US administration’s broad leniency under President Joe Biden in enforcing sanctions against the Islamic Republic.