Trump administration resumes aid for Iran initiatives

The report said that after President Donald Trump signed an executive order on his first day in office on Jan. 20 mandating enhanced scrutiny of foreign nationals Iranian-Canadians have faced heightened border security.

The report highlighted specific cases since that time, citing immigration lawyer Melissa Babel, who described two Iranian-Canadians who were recently denied entry.

According to Babel, both individuals, who had lived in Canada for decades, were questioned closely about their military service in Iran. US border agents asked them to provide proof that they had never served in the Iranian military, which is a major concern due to the US designation of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist organization​.

One of the men, who frequently traveled to the US for business, was denied entry and later found that his Nexus card—used for expedited US border processing—had been canceled. The other man, traveling with his Iranian-Canadian wife and Canadian-born daughter, was also refused entry​.

The report cited legal experts who have called on Ottawa to issue a travel advisory warning that Canadian citizens and residents from Iran risk being denied entry, having their visas or Nexus cards revoked, or even being detained or deported when traveling to the US.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported citing informed sources and an internal memo that the Trump administration is considering issuing sweeping travel restrictions for the citizens of dozens of countries as part of a new ban.

The memo lists a total of 41 countries divided into three separate groups. The first group of 10 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea among others, would be set for a full visa suspension​.

“It is a real tragedy,” said Mohamad Machine Chian, a senior researcher at the Center of Governance and Markets at Pittsburgh University on the Eye for Iran podcast. “Their quality of life has been steadily dropping for the past couple of years. But especially the past year, it has been a disaster.”

Chian told Eye for Iran that the Iranian government has continued to prioritize funding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military ventures over investing in the wellbeing of its citizens.

Since President Masoud Pezeshkian took office, the Iranian currency has halved in value.

With unemployment surging above 70 percent, millions are struggling to afford basic necessities as crippling inflation and poverty grip the nation.

The sharp depreciation has driven inflation above 40 percent, with food prices soaring by as much as 100 percent in some cases. As the crisis deepens, the economic strain on ordinary Iranians is only expected to worsen in the coming months.

Machine Chian said President Pezeshkian missed numerous opportunities to address the deepening crisis and has failed to include a welfare plan in the budget to alleviate citizens' suffering.

“One such opportunity was that President Pezeshkian could have put together next year's budget in a way that convinced the Islamic Republic’s powers to at least, for a year, halt increases in military spending. That could have deescalated the situation,” said Machine Chian.

"This is during a crisis. He (Pezeshkian) should have prioritized the budget for basic necessities. But he prioritized the IRGC," said Machine Chian.

Iran implemented a 200 percent increase in military spending for the Persian year beginning this month and will aim to boost revenue through higher taxes despite a big deficit and a moribund currency besetting the economy.

It's bad...but just how bad?

The economic crisis is the worst Iran has experienced since the inception of the Islamic Republic, according to Mahdi Ghodsi, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. Remarkably, Ghodsi says that the economy was better even during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.

“It's the worst situation, it's the worst condition, the direst condition that Iran has ever experienced,” said Ghodsi.

Ghodsi added that the reasons for this collapse are multifaceted, including Iran's militant stance in the region as a means of preserving the ruling system.

“It’s a dark comedy,” Ghodsi told Eye for Iran. “Leaders of Iran are mingling in a situation of lack of policy because their only objective is to survive. And to survive, they feel the need to initiate wars and increase tensions with other countries.”

Oil revenue: how much does it matter?

The looming uncertainty over a potential war with the United States or a new nuclear deal is also deepening the economic crisis.

Since President Trump took office, the rial has plummeted by 80,000. The administration has imposed new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, including Chinese “teapot refineries” processing Iranian crude.

US Secretary Treasury Scott Bessent recently said, "If I were an Iranian, I would get all my money out the rial now."

The Iranian state relies heavily on oil exports. However, at the current rate of oil exports, the revenue generated is insufficient to cover even basic pension funds, according to Machine Chian.

Iran's oil exports totaled $54 billion in 2024, up slightly from $53 billion in 2023, with volumes averaging 1.5 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

However, President Trump signed an executive order vowing to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Both Ghodsi and Machine Chian say that while the world markets can endure such a move, the impact on Iran’s economy would be crushing.

Iran currently attempts to stabilize the prices of basic goods and services by injecting US dollars into the economy. But if oil exports fall to zero, the state will lack sufficient foreign currency reserves, leading to further spikes in inflation and continued depreciation of the rial.

This also means Iran would no longer be able to subsidize the price of gasoline.

If the government can't subsidize gasoline prices, then there will likely be an increase in prices this summer, both economists warn.

Ghodsi and Machine Chian said that could lead to nationwide protests similar to the November 2019 protests, which erupted after a sudden increase in fuel prices and quickly spread as a broader expression to fight the establishment. Hundreds were killed and more than 7,000 were arrested.

But according to both economists, any meaningful change in Iran’s leadership through maximum pressure cannot happen without maximum support for the Iranian people.

With the shadow of war looming or a potential nuclear deal, the rial may continue to spiral. Rising inflation and economic hardship will likely fuel further public discontent, while tensions keep diplomatic and military risks high.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon or Apple.

“My big preference ... is we work it out with Iran. But if we don't work it out, bad, bad things are going to happen to Iran,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

This is what Trump said he conveyed in his letter to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei last week.

Tehran confirmed on Wednesday that a response to the letter had been sent via Oman.

"Our policy remains not to engage in direct negotiations under maximum pressure and military threats. However, indirect negotiations as existed in the past can continue," foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon but the UN's nuclear watchdog says it has enriched more uranium than any state lacking a bomb. While Washington assesses Tehran is not actively building one, it doubts Iranian intentions.

Trump last month reinstated the "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions on Iran from his first term, with the stated aim of driving its oil sales to zero.

Trump's remarks come as Iran’s parliament speaker on Friday accused the US of using nuclear talks to pressure Tehran into relinquishing its defense capabilities.

“The US means disarmament when it says negotiation,” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a speech during Quds Day rallies in Tehran on Friday. “Our people understand that talks under threat are just a show to impose their will. No wise nation would accept that.”

His comments were echoed by other senior Iranian officials speaking at Quds Day events showcasing Tehran's solidarity with Palestinians, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Larijani.

The report details how Iranian ships may have used commercial trade through Antwerp to conceal alleged illicit activities.

The vessels delivered arms, weapon components and cargo with dual civilian and military uses during stopovers in Syria and Russia en route to Belgium, the Western security sources cited by FTM were cited as saying.

In Syria, under recently ousted President Bashar al-Assad, these shipments were likely passed on to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, the report added citing unnamed intelligence sources.

Six Iranian ships regularly docked in Syria while travelling between Iran and Antwerp between mid-2022 and late 2024, FTM reported, citing shipping data.

One ship, the Shiba, lingered off Yemen during multiple Houthi attacks, and made at least one unregistered “dark port” call to Syria, FTM said.

The ships were operated by Hafez Darya Arya Shipping (HDS), which is suspected to be a front for Iran’s sanctioned state shipping firm IRISL, the report said.

Belgian authorities inspected one vessel in 2024 but found no weapons, FTM reported. The EU banned the ships from its ports in late 2024 after sanctioning IRISL.

"I'm not interested in negotiating with the Islamic Republic," said Poilievre. "I don't trust them. I think they are liars."

The federal Conservative leader was on the campaign trail Thursday in Surrey, British Columbia addressing what he called “another attack by President Trump” on the Canadian economy.

His comments followed the US President’s announcement of additional tariffs on Canadian goods.

Poilievre is a frontrunner in the upcoming federal election to unseat current Prime Minister Mark Carney. The election is set to take place next month as a trade dispute sparked by Trump's tariffs has upended Canada's close alliance with the superpower to its south.

Despite similarities in their hardline stance against Iran, Poilievre and Trump appear to diverge significantly in their approaches.

Trump recently sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urging a nuclear deal. The outreach came after Washington imposed harsh new sanctions as part of the president's renewed “maximum pressure” campaign.

Trump’s letter reportedly laid out a deadline of two months to begin negotiations on the nuclear issue, with the warning that the alternative to a nuclear deal was a military attack. Iran responded by saying they are open to indirect talks but will not engage directly amid threats.

“I believe they (Iran) will promise anything you want them to get their oil and gas back on the world market,” Poilievre told Iran International. “Then they will use all the revenues from those sales to fund terrorism and attempt to obliterate our values.”

While Poilievre did not name Trump in his remarks, it was evident that he would not follow his US counterpart's Iran policy.

Poilievre dismissed the prospect of negotiating with Iran, arguing the theocracy would make promises to secure sanctions relief only to funnel the gains into funding terrorism.

“I think it's a terrible regime," said Poilievre. "It's the most dangerous sponsor of terror anywhere in the world."

The Conservative leader went on to accuse Iran’s government of exploiting Canada as a haven for their agents, threatening the lives of anyone they perceive as a critic. He vowed to deport any non-citizen or non-permanent resident with ties to the Islamic Republic.

In October 2024, Poilievre, in response to a reporter's question, said potential preemptive Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities would be a "gift to humanity."