International Security and Law Analyst
Ali Larijani’s tour of Iraq and Lebanon a few weeks after his Russia visit underscores his re-emergence as a trusted envoy and crisis manager tasked with shoring up Tehran’s defences in the twilight of supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s rule.
In just three weeks, Larijani has traversed the highest corridors of Moscow, Baghdad, and Beirut.
The veteran conservative met Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Moscow late July. This week, met Iraqi leaders, laid a wreath at the site of Qassem Soleimani’s killing, and visited Lebanon amid a push to disarm Tehran-allied Hezbollah.
Once sidelined from presidential politics, the former parliament speaker and IRGC founding member is now back at the centre of power—chairing the new Defence Council and is dispatched abroad to steady alliances and project resilience at a moment of regional strain and looming succession.
The itinerary reflects his rebirth: Moscow for geopolitical depth, Baghdad to reinforce Iran-aligned proxies, Beirut to guard influence amid Western-backed disarmament moves.
Syria lies outside the traditional axis: Assad has fallen, Jolani governs Damascus and IRGC forces have withdrawn, yet some Iranian influence endures through discreet networks and shadow intermediaries.
War mode reloaded
Larijani’s revival is no accident but a deliberate restoration of wartime instincts.
During the Iran–Iraq War, real power shifted from Khamenei’s ceremonial presidency to Majlis Speaker Rafsanjani, the acting Deputy Commander-in-Chief.
The slight was deeply felt by Khamenei, who spent much of his second presidential term at the front, forging bonds with commanders like Soleimani—ties that became the backbone of the Beyt-e Rahbari after he became Supreme Leader in 1989.
Khamenei disappeared from public view during Israeli strikes on Iran in June. The so-called 12-day war, in which many of his key protégés were killed, reinforced Khamenei’s long-held belief in relying on loyal men willing to risk all to preserve him.
That’s where Larijani enters the picture.
Unqualified no more
A former chief nuclear negotiator, he was deemed unfit to run for the presidency as late as 2024. Now, he has been placed at the helm of the Defence Council, positioned as both succession strategist and potential wartime coordinator.
Precedent underpins this orchestration.
In 2011, Ahmadinejad’s 11-day disappearance during a succession standoff left a vacuum between the presidency and the Leader’s office.
As speaker and a member of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Larijani navigated the crisis amid speculation that IRGC-linked governance was filling the gap.
Today, Khamenei is again turning to the tools that preserved the theocracy in its formative years: centralised command, crisis-tested operatives, and the fusion of media, military, and diplomacy.Beirut’s standoff illustrates the stakes.
Lebanon test case
The US plan to disarm Hezbollah—paired with Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction aid—has exposed Lebanon’s political fault lines.
On the eve of Larijani’s arrival, Hezbollah denounced the plan as a “grave sin” and rejected it in cabinet, while the Lebanese army was tasked with drafting legislation to give the state a monopoly on arms.
Former President Michel Aoun and others have called for “arms under state authority” through dialogue, while Hezbollah insists on Israeli withdrawal first, warning it will resist any state compulsion.
Amid these fractures, Larijani’s mission is not the defence of state sovereignty but the calculus of regime survival—Khamenei’s answer from the past to a future laden with uncertainty.
Larijani is not simply a returning statesman but a recycled instrument from the Islamic Republic’s most turbulent chapters, tasked now with holding the line until the next hand—willing or not—seizes the tiller.
Joseph Aoun criticized certain remarks by Islamic Republic officials and stressed that no group has the right to bear arms or seek foreign support, according to Al Arabiya.
Larijani responded by affirming the Islamic Republic’s support for the decisions of Lebanon’s government.
Saudi website Al Hadath quoted Larijani as telling Aoun that Iran does not interfere in the country’s affairs, while Al Sharq website cited him pledging to strengthen ties with the Lebanese state on all levels.
"Any decision taken by the Lebanese government in consultation with the resistance is respected by us," he said after separate talks with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, whose Amal movement is an ally of Hezbollah.
He said Lebanon should not "mix its enemies with its friends. Your enemy is Israel, your friend is the resistance. I recommend to Lebanon to always appreciate the value of resistance."
By "resistance", Larijani was referring to the Shi'ite militant group Hezbollah, which grew into a so-called state-within-a-state force better armed than the Lebanese army and has repeatedly fought Israel over the decades.
"Iran didn't bring any plan to Lebanon, the US did. Those intervening in Lebanese affairs are those dictating plans and deadlines," said Larijani.
The US submitted a plan through President Donald Trump's envoy to the region, Tom Barrack, setting out the most detailed steps yet for disarming Hezbollah, which has rejected mounting calls to disarm since its devastating war with Israel last year.
During his meeting with the president, Larijani also spoke of deep historical and cultural links, Iran’s Guards-linked Tasnim reported.
“If one day the people of Lebanon are in distress, we in Iran will also feel that pain. We will stand by the dear people of Lebanon in all circumstances,” Tasnim quoted Larijani as saying.
In the same meeting, Larijani said he had renewed his invitation for Aoun to visit Tehran and emphasized Iran’s readiness to help Lebanon in the field of reconstruction, Iranian local media reported.
Messages for Hezbollah and parliament backing
The visit came with messages urging Hezbollah to align with the Lebanese government’s positions, the news site This is Lebanon reported, linking the trip to wider regional arrangements.
According to the outlet, the messages were part of political maneuvers that could be used as bargaining tools, including demands for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the launch of reconstruction in war-damaged areas. It said the aim was to secure the “Hezbollah card” for potential negotiations with the United States.
Founded in 1982 by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Hezbollah has long been Israel’s principal military adversary in Lebanon. Fighting late last year left the group weakened.
The Lebanese cabinet last week ordered the army to disarm Hezbollah, prompting sharp criticism from Tehran.
Ali-Akbar Velayati, senior foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, called the disarmament “a dream that won’t come true,” describing it as a policy dictated by Israel and Washington.
Lebanon’s foreign ministry condemned the comments on X as “a flagrant and unacceptable interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs.”
Larijani’s stop in Iraq
Before arriving in Beirut, Larijani traveled to Baghdad, where he signed a security memorandum with the government. According to information obtained by Iran International, one goal was to encourage Shi’ite factions to push for parliamentary approval of a Popular Mobilization Forces bill.
The PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi, is an umbrella organization of Shi’ite militias formed under the direct supervision of Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of the IRGC Quds Force.
On Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met Larijani and, according to Arab media, expressed support for US-Iran dialogue.
Iraqi sources told Iran International the tour reflected Tehran’s concern over Baghdad yielding to US pressure on the PMF.
Netanyahu promised that if Iran “breaks free” from its leadership, Israel would send top water experts to help recycle and desalinate water, restoring rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.
“The thirst for water in Iran is only matched by the thirst for freedom,” he said, speaking with a full jug of water on the table as a prop to underscore his point.
“I urge you to be bold and brave … take risks for freedom, for your future, for your families … Take to the streets. Demand justice. Demand accountability. Protest tyranny. Build a better future for your families and for all Iranians,” he added.
In recent weeks, several cities have faced water shutoffs lasting up to 48 hours, while rolling blackouts have compounded the strain in peak summer heat. Key reservoirs are at critically low levels, with some including the Karaj, Lar, and Taleghan dams dramatically depleted compared to last year.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that without immediate cuts to consumption, some dams could run dry by early autumn, deepening what is already a nationwide environmental emergency.
The address comes as Israel faces its own accusations of restricting access to clean water in Gaza — charges Netanyahu denies — and as he remains wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.
Hint of unfinished business
In a separate sit-down with Israel’s i24 News, Netanyahu described the June strikes that destroyed key elements of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs as historic and vowed to stop Tehran from rebuilding.
When an i24 reporter asked, “Don’t you sometimes feel like wishing to finish work there?” Netanyahu replied, “Yes, but I won’t go into the details of this. We are following this … with seven eyes … together with our American friends.”
Netanyahu also acknowledged that Iran still retains 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity but said Tehran is not currently in a position to advance its nuclear program.
"They have 400 kilograms left. We knew in advance that it wouldn't be damaged. But it's a necessary condition but not sufficient to produce nuclear bombs."
That assessment stands in contrast to the view of former IAEA deputy chief Olli Heinonen, who told Eye for Iran in a recent interview that this amount of material—if further enriched to weapons-grade—could be enough for about ten nuclear bombs
It could be converted within days in a small, concealed facility if the expertise and equipment remain available, he added.
Netanyahu's predecessor, Naftali Bennett also shared a video message to Iranian people on Tuesday, saying, "Iran has a choice: it can choose to continue war or it can choose peace, the way of working together.
