Iran says new round of IAEA talks likely, open to steps if sanctions lifted

Since June 24, officials and state media in Iran have repeatedly described the incidents as ordinary accidents, often blaming gas leaks, electrical faults or waste fires.

While pledging that investigations would reveal the causes, they have consistently denied any link to Israel.

The blasts came in the middle of summer, a season when gas use is at its lowest. Some fires broke out near military facilities.

The sudden death of Ali Taeb — a former representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Sarallah Headquarters, a key Revolutionary Guard security command — deepened doubts.

The authorities’ official explanation has sparked a wave of jokes on Iranian social media.

What types of sites were hit

Of the sites affected, about 30 percent were commercial, 24 percent residential, 16 percent industrial, 14 percent military, 10 percent public facilities, and 6 percent of unknown use.

The peak came on July 14 with four incidents. Tehran province had the most overall with 15, followed by Hormozgan with five, Khorasan Razavi with four, East Azarbaijan and Alborz with three each, five provinces with two, and nine provinces with at least one.

Explosions and fires from June 24 to June 30

The first case after the ceasefire was on June 24, when a residential unit in Kermanshah’s Karnachi district exploded. Officials blamed a gas leak.

On June 25, another residential unit in Tehran’s Jannatabad district was destroyed, also officially described as a gas explosion in an unfinished building.

The same day, another explosion occurred on Hedayat Boulevard in Mashhad, likewise blamed on gas. That evening in Dezful, residents reported powerful blasts. Military officials said they were caused by the destruction of old munitions.

On June 26, flames poured from a unit in the Aseman Tower in Tehran’s Farmanieh district. Given the recent targeting of military and security officials during the 12-day war, doubts grew. No clear cause was ever announced.

The same day, an explosion and fire were reported at Tabriz refinery, northwest of Iran. In an unusual move, the IRGC’s Ashura unit issued a statement blaming a nitrogen tank replacement.

In Urmia, another explosion was reported near the airport and again it was attributed to the disposal of munitions.

Around the same time, residents in Tehran’s northeast, near Shahrak-e Mahallati, and in Hamedan, reported powerful blasts. Both were officially described as air defense tests.

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Explosions and fires from July 4 to July 14

On July 4, a huge fire engulfed the Noor shopping center in Qeshm Island, destroying at least 200 stores. Its scale required 130 firefighters from several towns.

On July 5, an explosion was reported near the Istak factory in Sanandaj, attributed to a battery warehouse.

On July 7, repeated blasts were heard in western Tehran, with no official explanation. On July 9, a fire struck workshops in Khalazir, west of Tehran.

That night, Bandar Abbas’s main bazaar, the Hormozgan Mega Mall, burned.

On July 10, an explosion destroyed a unit in Pamchal-9 Tower in western Tehran. Witnesses reported seeing a projectile, and security forces quickly sealed the site.

Officials called it a gas blast, but the tower had no gas piping.

The next day, the death of Taeb was announced.

On July 14, residents in Damavand reported explosions and glowing objects in the sky, which officials again described as an air defense test.

The same day, thick smoke rose near Roshandelan Bridge in Tehran, with firefighters attributing the blaze to a shoe workshop.

In Karaj, a blaze destroyed a furniture workshop. In Mashhad, smoke was seen near the airport, blamed on grass burning.

In Qom’s Pardisan district, a blast tore through an apartment complex, injuring seven and damaging surrounding buildings.

The images resembled Israeli strikes on high-profile figures during the 12-day war. Officials said it was a gas leak.

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Explosions and fires from July 14 to July 20

On July 15, a fire broke out at Mashhad’s Qaem shopping center, which officials linked to the building’s age, while Tabriz’s Zomorrod Tower also caught fire with no cause given.

In Tehran’s Esfahanak district, a five-story apartment block with 60 units burned, blamed on a car fire in the garage.

On July 16, a blaze hit Baghlarbaghi park in Tabriz, said to be caused by an amusement ride engine.

On July 17, smoke rose near Barekat Hospital in Tehran’s Chitgar area, blamed on a garbage depot fire.

On July 19, an explosion at Abadan refinery was blamed on a pump leak. That night, a 30-story residential tower in Tehran’s Kharrazi district caught fire, blamed on a faulty air conditioner.

The same day, smoke was seen on Neauphle-le-Château Street in Tehran, near the Italian Embassy, which officials said was caused by burning waste.

On July 20, Yazd’s Mehriz industrial park was engulfed by flames, while a residential-commercial building in Rasht burned, leaving 18 injured.

Explosions and fires from July 21 to July 26

On July 21, a major fire struck Kharazmi industrial park in Alborz province. The same day, a petrochemical plant near Ziar in Isfahan exploded, burning 1,500 square meters.

On July 22, Anzali Free Zone’s Venus shopping mall caught fire, injuring 16. The same day, Qeshm’s Dolphin Mall also burned. In Qom’s Fatemieh district, an explosion destroyed a home, which officials said was caused by a water heater.

On July 23, fire swept through workshops at Isfahan’s science park.

On July 25, Bandar Abbas’s old bazaar burned.

On July 26, a large fire hit Mahdis Hypermarket in Mazandaran’s Qaemshahr.

Explosions and fires from July 28 to August 11

On July 28, another blaze swept Qeshm’s Persian Gulf-2 mall.

On July 31, a fire broke out at a furniture workshop in Nasirabad industrial park near Robat Karim, which officials attributed to an electrical fault. The same day, flames were reported in Kermanshah, officially blamed on a water company depot, while in Mashhad a fire near Qaem hospital was said to have been caused by burning trees.

On August 4, a dormitory on Tehran’s Enghelab Street caught fire, which officials attributed to a neighboring carpentry shop. The same day, flames spread across Shiraz’s Derak mountains, blamed on careless hikers.

On August 6, a blaze swept through the Aliabad industrial zone in Tehran. Two days later, on August 8, an explosion struck a scrapyard in Gachsaran.

On August 9, a fire broke out at Anzali’s Caspian shopping mall and at warehouses in Saveh’s industrial zone, destroying motorcycles and storage for paper and wood. In Mehran, near Iran’s western border with Iraq, an explosion destroyed a tent for Arbaeen pilgrims, which officials blamed on a gas cylinder.

On August 11, residents of Savojbolagh district in Alborz province reported blasts and a fire in the Hiv mountains, which officials blamed on careless hikers.

Although officials have attributed the incidents to causes such as gas leaks and accidents, their number, timing after the 12-day war, and proximity to sensitive sites have prompted continued public questioning.

“Perhaps our next missile will hit Washington directly. We can target America from the sea. The Aerospace Force of the IRGC has been working for 20 years on making it possible to strike America from Iranian ships. Even if we have not yet reached this technology, it remains within our grasp,” Amir Hayat-Moqaddam, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Didban Iran.

While the United States is 10,000 kilometers away, Iranian ships could approach within 2,000 kilometers and launch missiles at Washington, New York and other cities, he added.

In early 2023, two Iranian naval vessels, the IRIS Makran and the IRIS Dena, were reported to be heading toward the Panama Canal after crossing the Atlantic, but they ultimately did not transit the waterway. In 2021, Iranian naval vessels Makran and Sahand completed a mission to the Atlantic Ocean, reaching Venezuela.

“Even now, all European countries are in our range. With our existing missiles we can strike France, Germany, the UK, and all of Western and Eastern Europe.”

The threats come as France, the UK and Germany look set to reimpose UN sanctions through the snapback mechanism.

However, Hayat-Moqaddam downplayed the impact, saying that Iran has already endured seven years of sanctions since US President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018.

“All possible sanctions have already been imposed on our country. The unilateral and multilateral sanctions by the US and Europe are already at their peak. So activating the snapback mechanism will bring no new negative consequences for Iran’s economy and is merely a political move,” he said.

European officials have warned Tehran that unless it fully cooperates with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the mechanism could be activated, restoring UN sanctions this fall.

Negotiations under the Trump administration began with a 60-day ultimatum to Iran. On the 61st day, June 13, Israel launched a surprise military campaign against Iran, striking key nuclear and military sites and personnel, including Iran's chief of staff and senior nuclear scientists.

The Israeli strikes began on the eve of the sixth round of negotiations with the United States.

On the ninth day of fighting, the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. Trump has consistently said the attack "obliterated" the country's nuclear program.

President Masoud Pezeshkian formally signed the tax bill on Friday, passed by parliament in late June.

The law targets capital gains on real estate, vehicles, gold, jewelry, silver, platinum, foreign currency, and even cryptocurrencies.

“For properties held between two and five years, 50 percent of inflation is considered,” said Mehdi Movahedi Beknazar, spokesperson for Iran’s Tax Administration in July. “If the property is held for more than five years, full inflation adjustment is applied.”

In effect, tax will be levied on the profit plus 50 percent of the increase in asset prices due to inflation.

For example, if a citizen buys an apartment in 2024 for 50 billion rials (about $55,500) and, due to 40 percent inflation, its value rises to 80 billion rials (about $88,800) in 2025, the 30 billion rial increase (about $33,300) is treated as profit, and therefore is taxable.

Iran’s year-on-year inflation rate rose to 41.2% last month, marking the highest level in two years, according to Iran's Statistical Center.

The Ministry of Economy has been tasked with creating a smart system that links to registries of deeds, the stock exchange, customs and the Central Bank to identify transactions subject to the law.

A first-of-its-kind approach

State media have praised the law for “taking inflation into account,” framing it as a tool against hoarding in a country where inflation often exceeds 40 percent.

Under the 28-article law, assets sold within a year will be taxed at 20–40 percent, with lower rates applying to longer holding periods. Exemptions include primary homes, one family car, and production-related properties such as farms and factories.

Penalties for evasion include blocked property transfers, bans on commercial activity, and fines of up to twice the tax owed.

Global benchmarks

Most nations impose capital gains taxes, but none explicitly tax inflation in the same way.

The United States taxes nominal gains without inflation adjustment. Britain used to allow inflation indexation until 1998 but abolished it. Chile and Brazil adjust long-term gains for inflation, while Australia offers a 50-percent discount for assets held over a year.

Authorities argue the law will curb speculative activity in housing, cars, and gold sectors, where prices have soared and wealthier Iranians often shelter assets.

“In the current situation, the conditions for negotiations with the United States are not ready,” said Mehdi Tabatabaei, deputy for communications and information at the president’s office, in an interview with Iranian media.

“Today this possibility does not exist, but 40 days from now, when the president is in New York, the situation may be different. We live in a state of uncertainty,” he said, referring to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s upcoming visit for the UN General Assembly in late September.

Tabatabaei added that any decision on talks with Washington would not rest solely with the government and would require final approval from the Supreme Leader.

“The considerations of the Supreme National Security Council are always taken into account, but its resolutions only gain effect when approved by the Supreme Leader.”

He added that Iran’s president, who also heads the Supreme National Security Council, remains bound by the authority of Ali Khamenei.

“In the case of the president, there is complete alignment and obedience to the considerations, strategies and views of the Supreme Leader,” he said.

Asked whether there had been differences in the past, Tabatabaei said, “At one point, the president’s view was to negotiate, but the Supreme Leader was not in agreement. The president said that the Supreme Leader’s opinion comes first, even if it is against his own view. Later, when conditions changed, the decision for negotiations also changed, and the government implemented it.”

“If conditions remain as they are now, no, there will be no talks. But it is not possible to rule out changes by then,” he said.

Tabatabaei also rejected suggestions of division within the leadership over Iran’s foreign policy, saying, “The coordination that exists today between the branches of government and the Supreme Leader is extraordinary. This unity of view and trust helped the country overcome the recent aggression by the Zionist regime and the United States.”

According to a recent report by Reuters, Supreme Leader and the country’s power structure have reached a consensus to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States, viewing them as vital to the Islamic Republic’s survival.

Amid deteriorating ties with Europe and the looming threat of another war with Israel, Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian is under mounting attack from Tehran’s hardliners, who question both his competence and his political judgment.

Allegations of a “shadow government” meddling in Iran’s foreign policy have also reignited concerns about the country’s diplomatic direction, just as high-stakes nuclear talks with the West hang in the balance.

Mohammad Ayyad was convicted by a Lebanese military tribunal latein July for his role in the fatal attack on a UN convoy near the village of Al-Aqbiya, south of Beirut. He was not present at the trial, and Lebanese authorities have not disclosed his whereabouts.

“We suspect he is in Iran and it is unlikely anyone will hand him over to face a death penalty,” one diplomatic source told the newspaper. “It is not a satisfactory situation but all we can do is keep the pressure on and see if we can get justice for Seán and his family.”

Rooney, 23, from Dundalk, was killed on December 14, 2022, when a group of armed men opened fire on the peacekeepers’ vehicle as they travelled towards Beirut airport. Three other Irish soldiers were injured in the attack.

According to Sunday World, several other Lebanese men received lighter sentences over the shooting, including short jail terms, fines, or acquittals. The Beirut government has appealed the verdicts following pressure from Ireland and Rooney’s family, the paper said.

Irish Defense Minister Simon Harris said last week that Dublin continues to press for accountability. “The Government has repeatedly stressed the need for justice to be served in this case. We have raised the issue with the UN and the Lebanese authorities,” he said after meeting Rooney’s mother, Natasha.

Lebanon has not carried out an execution in more than 20 years, and Irish officials have indicated they would prefer Ayyad serve a life sentence rather than face capital punishment.

An Irish coroner’s inquest into Rooney’s death has been postponed, while an independent review of the circumstances surrounding the attack, led by barrister Michael Delaney, is underway and expected to conclude in the autumn.