Iran’s food industry prices jump over 70% as costs soar

"The Americans have at least 10 bases with 50,000 troops in the region, meaning they are sitting in a glass room," said Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Division of the Revolutionary Guards.

"Someone in a glass house should not throw stones at anyone," he added.

Hajizadeh was given a "victory" military commendation by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for his leadership of a direct missile attack on Israel last year and is a key military decision-maker.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday warned the United States would bomb Iran if Tehran fails to reach a deal over its nuclear program.

"If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing — and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before," he told NBC News.

His comments were more stark than previous ones giving Tehran and ultimatum to come to a deal or face a military intervention.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon but the United Nations nuclear watchdog says it has enriched more uranium than any state lacking a bomb.

Khamenei promised on Monday to retaliate if Iran was attacked.

"The enmity from the US and Israel has always been there. They threaten to attack us, which we don’t think is very probable, but if they commit any mischief, they will surely receive a strong reciprocal blow," he said in a televised addressed.

Iran on Monday issued a formal complaint about Trump’s threat to the Swiss embassy in Tehran, which represents US interests in the country, and Iran's foreign ministry spokesman called it a "shocking affront" to the core principles of international peace.

While the Trump administration has previously used tariff hikes as leverage against nations it regarded as rivals, this approach has little impact on Iran, which exported only $6.2 million worth of goods to the US last year and just $2.2 million in 2023.

However, secondary tariffs could pose a serious threat to Iran. Under this mechanism, the US could target countries that import sanctioned Iranian goods by imposing tariffs on their exports to the American market.

This is particularly significant given that, according to Iranian customs data, about 83% of Iran’s non-oil exports go to seven countries: China, Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. With the exception of Afghanistan, all have substantial trade ties with the US. Continued commerce with Iran could jeopardize their access to the American market.

This issue presents two major challenges for Iran. First, it threatens the country’s ability to export sanctioned goods—such as oil, petrochemicals, and metals—to key markets. Second, it disrupts Iran’s strategy of using trade partners to rebrand these goods and reroute them to third countries.

In the first 11 months of the last Iranian fiscal year, which ended on March 20, Iran exported $43 billion worth of goods to these seven key countries. Meanwhile, according to the US Census Bureau, those same countries exported over $550 billion worth of goods to the United States in 2024—more than 11 times the value of their imports from Iran.

Take China, for example. Iranian customs data show it imported around $13.8 billion in non-oil goods from Iran during that period. In addition, tanker tracking data indicate that China received approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude and fuel oil--worth an estimated $40 billion.

Although China benefits from steep discounts on Iranian petroleum and non-oil goods, it exported $427 billion worth of goods to the US last year--highlighting the potential cost of secondary tariffs.

Rebranding Iranian products

The gap between Iran’s official trade figures and those reported by its key trading partners suggests that a substantial share of Iranian exports is being rebranded and re-exported as if originating from those countries.

For example, Iranian customs recorded $13.8 billion in non-oil exports to China over the first 11 months of the last fiscal year, yet China’s Customs data show only $4.44 billion in non-oil imports from Iran for all of 2024. Similarly, Iran reported $6.4 billion in exports to Turkey, but Turkish data—including natural gas—registered just $2.45 billion in imports from Iran. The discrepancy persists with India: Iranian data show $1.8 billion in exports, while India’s Ministry of Commerce reported only $718 million in imports from Iran.

Iraq, the UAE, Pakistan, and Afghanistan do not publish detailed trade statistics. However, Iran's reliance on countries like the UAE for rebranding sanctioned goods and rerouting them to global markets appears highly likely.

As noted, Iran’s foreign trade is concentrated in a small group of countries. This concentration means that imposing US tariffs on those re-exporting Iranian sanctioned goods would not be especially difficult.

Another key point is that US sanctions extend well beyond crude oil. They also target Iranian exports of petroleum products (such as liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG), petrochemicals, metals, and more. These items make up the majority of Iran’s non-oil exports.

In the first 11 months of the last fiscal year, Iran exported over $10 billion in LPG, $13 billion in petrochemicals, $10 billion in metals (especially steel, aluminum, and copper), and $5 billion in gas. These four categories alone accounted for 70% of Iran’s non-oil exports, with nearly all shipments headed to the seven countries mentioned above.

Mowlavi Abdolhamid Ismaeelzahi, said, "In my opinion, direct negotiation is more effective," after leading the Eid al-Fitr prayers in Zahedan, marking the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.

"Intermediaries cannot powerfully defend the country's interests and respond to the other side's doubts. Rather, the person with the pain and the problem can speak better and achieve a better result."

The Sunni leader, who has become famed for his fearless opposition to the government, made the comments on Monday following threats from US President Donald Trump to bomb Iran if it does not agree to a new nuclear deal.

He emphasized the importance of adapting policies to foster progress and better international relations, saying, "The success of all developed and developing countries and nations is the result of creating change, transformation, and innovation in laws and policies."

Abdolhamid's call for direct dialogue stands in contrast to the official stance of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who voiced his rejection of direct negotiations with the United States earlier in the day, although he indicated that indirect talks could continue.

Khamenei's position was underscored during his televised speech, where he also warned the US of a "strong blow" if it acted on Trump's bombing threat.

As Khamenei delivered his remarks, crowds present chanted, "Death to America."

Echoing Khamenei's stance, Friday prayer leaders across Iran, who serve as his representatives, have also condemned Trump's threats.

Mohammad Mehdi Hosseini Hamedani, Khamenei's representative and the Friday prayers leader of Karaj, said on Monday, "Our response to the heavy bombing threat is the repetition of the slogan 'Death to America.'"

President Masoud Pezeshkian has also rejected direct talks with Washington but left the door open for indirect negotiations.

“The response by the Supreme Leader to Trump’s letter was delivered to the US contact in Oman,” Pezeshkian said on Sunday.

“In that response, direct negotiations have been rejected, but regarding indirect talks, Iran has always been involved in such discussions, and the Supreme Leader has emphasized that indirect talks can still continue.”

Meanwhile, economic and political figures within Iran have warned that failure to engage with the US could deepen the country’s crisis.

Khamenei’s senior adviser Ali Larijani and leading economists in Tehran have urged policymakers to seek a resolution with Washington to ease sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

Earlier this year, Trump reinstated his “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran. Trump's maximum pressure approach in his first term, which started in 2018, pummeled Iran's economy, causing a dramatic decline in oil exports and skyrocketing inflation.

According to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Fars News Agency, the ministry reported high lithium concentrations in brine in Qom Salt Lake, Khor in Iran's Central Desert, and Tarud in Semnan Province.

Fars suggested that these findings could position Iran as a key player in the global lithium mining industry, although the scale of the discovered deposits pales in comparison to those controlled by the world's top ten lithium producers.

An official from the Presidential office’s Mines Working Group reported that with a lithium concentration of 60–70 ppm, this deposit would yield only 500–600 tons of lithium—far from the claim that Iran had discovered 20% of the world’s lithium.

The world’s major lithium reserves are found in the "Lithium Triangle" (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile), while Australia leads in hard-rock lithium mining. The latest data ranks Bolivia as the top holder of lithium reserves, with an estimated 23 million tons. With usable reserves close to 14 million tons, the US ranks third in the world.

Due to security restrictions, Iranian government websites are inaccessible from outside Iran. However, Fars reported that the findings stem from a year-long study conducted in collaboration with Russian experts using advanced technologies such as ICP-OES. According to Fars, this study confirms the presence of lithium reserves with globally competitive concentrations.

The Fars report on March 12 has been widely republished by Iranian media and amplified on social media, especially by accounts linked to hardliners that claim Iran is on the brink of a "Green Lithium Revolution." Such claims are often used as a means to create optimism among the population as the country's economy continues to deteriorate.

This is not the first time that exaggerated claims about Iran’s lithium resources have circulated. In November 2024, a very well-known ultra-hardliner and vigilante, Hossein Allahkaram, said in an online debate that Iran held the fourth-largest reserves of lithium in the world, even suggesting that Elon Musk sought negotiations with Iran.

Similar misinformation spread in February 2023 when Iran’s official news agency IRNA quoted a ministry official, Ebrahim-Ali Molabeigi, claiming the discovery of 8.5 million tons of lithium in Hamedan Province.

Global excitement over the report faded after it was revealed to be a misinterpretation. The actual discovery was 8.5 million tons of hectorite clay containing lithium, not pure lithium reserves.

Lithium plays a crucial role in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles, smartphones, laptops, and energy storage systems. While it is primarily extracted from salt lake brines and hard rock deposits, alternative sources such as clay deposits and geothermal brines are not yet widely used for commercial production.

The Swiss diplomat was told that Iran would respond decisively to any such threats, according to IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News website.

The report referred to the envoy in Iran as the "caretaker of the embassy," implying the absence or unavailability of the Swiss ambassador.

Switzerland represents US interests in Iran since Washington and Tehran cut ties shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Swiss embassy in Tehran has been consistently relaying diplomatic communications between the Islamic Republic and the United States.

Earlier in the day, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman condemned Trump's threat of bombing Iran if the country failed to reach a new nuclear deal with Washington, calling it a "shocking affront" to the core principles of international peace and security.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei also warned that the United States would face a strong blow if it follows through on Trump’s threat to bomb the country.

Khamenei's warning, delivered in a televised speech marking the end of Ramadan, came a day after Trump told NBC News that if a deal was not reached, "there will be bombing — and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before."

Iran International has put a request for comment to the Swiss foreign ministry.